The Los Angeles Rams acquired Matthew Stafford in a 2021 mega-trade with the Detroit Lions and subsequently won a Super Bowl trophy. Now, the veteran quarterback is again the subject of trade rumors.
Appearing on The Pat McAfee Show, former NFL general manager Michael Lombardi said the Rams would “love to trade” Stafford and “have called teams” about the concept of moving the 35-year-old signal-caller.
Trading Matthew Stafford Is a Tall Order for the Rams
After bottoming out in 2022 with one of the worst Super Bowl hangovers in recent memory, the Rams appear to be undergoing a soft rebuild. In the coming days, they will release linebacker Bobby Wagner, whom they signed to a five-year deal last offseason. Star cornerback Jalen Ramsey is on the trade block and could be on the move.
Stafford, though, is essentially locked on the Rams’ roster. After agreeing to a four-year, $160 million extension in March 2022, Stafford will have a $20 million cap charge in 2023, followed by figures around $50 million from 2024-2026.
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Stafford’s contract isn’t exactly straightforward. His $1.5 million base salary for 2023 is already locked in, but he’s also due a $26 million option that will become guaranteed on March 17. Los Angeles can exercise that option between March 15 and March 17. Stafford’s $31 million base salary for 2024 will guarantee on March 17, too.
In January, ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported that the Rams planned to pick up Stafford’s option. While the club’s plans could have changed in the past two months, that was their thinking at the time.
How Would the Money Work in a Stafford Trade?
If the Rams can convince another team to trade for Stafford, they would allow that acquiring club to exercise his option. In that case, L.A. would absorb $48 million in dead money, representing a loss of $28 million compared to Stafford’s planned $20 million cap charge.
The Rams are already $16 million over the salary cap for next season without accounting for a potential Stafford trade. Moving on from veterans like Wagner and Ramsey can create some additional room, but not much.
Any team that acquired Stafford would take on his $26 million option bonus (prorated over the life of the contract) and guaranteed base salaries in 2023 ($1.5 million) and 2024 ($31 million).
That club would also inherit Stafford’s $27 million salary for 2025, $10 million of which will fully guarantee on the third day of the 2024 league year. Stafford is also due a $5 million roster bonus in 2025, a $26 million base salary in 2026, and a $5 million roster bonus in 2026 — but none of those sums are guaranteed.
In total, an acquiring team would be looking at a two-year, fully guaranteed $68.5 million deal for Stafford. His new club could tweak his contract to adjust cap charges and timing of payments, but that would be the baseline they’d be working from.
Which Teams Would Be Interested in Stafford?
Money isn’t necessarily the problem in a Stafford trade. An effective annual salary of $34.25 million would place Stafford in the Kirk Cousins/Jared Goff tier of quarterbacks and below signal-callers like Derek Carr and Daniel Jones, both of whom just received new deals.
If teams were confident they were getting the Matthew Stafford who threw for 4,886 yards and 41 touchdowns in 2022 while finishing third in adjusted net yards per attempt, he’d represent a bargain.
But Stafford dealt with an elbow injury throughout last year’s preseason that hindered his ability to throw the ball, and he didn’t look like himself during the 2022 campaign. He also suffered a spinal cord contusion near the end of the season that led to the Rams placing him on injured reserve.
Stafford was expected to have a “healthy offseason” and is considered one of the tougher players in the NFL. In December, Stafford appeared on his wife’s podcast and indicated he has no plans to retire.
But there’s a lot of risk here. Aging quarterbacks with injury issues can fall off a cliff in a hurry, and even teams interested in trading for Stafford would have to be concerned about his long-term health.
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Who might those teams be? The Commanders reportedly offered the Lions a first, a third, and a player for Stafford in 2021. They’ve installed 2022 fifth-round pick Sam Howell as their starting quarterback but could be desperate enough to trade for a veteran option like Stafford.
The Panthers gave the Lions a similar proposal for Stafford two years ago: a first-round pick, a fifth-rounder, and Teddy Bridgewater. Carolina is still searching for its franchise quarterback, but they could be positioned to land a passer in the first round of the upcoming draft.
The Jets could theoretically get involved in the Stafford sweepstakes if Aaron Rodgers decides to stay in Green Bay. The Buccaneers could upgrade from Kyle Trask but probably don’t have the cap space to pick up Stafford. And while the Titans could hypothetically express interest, it would be odd to go from one age-35 quarterback (Ryan Tannehill) to another.
Can the Rams Just Cut Stafford?
It seems unlikely that the Rams would be able to conjure up enough interest to move Stafford off their books. If they can’t find a trade partner, can they simply release him?
Los Angeles could cut Stafford, but it would be an expensive proposition, no matter how they do it.
If the Rams released Stafford before June 1, his $1.5 million base salary and $48 million in prorated roster bonus would immediately accelerate onto their cap. They’d absorb $49.5 million in dead money and add $29.5 million to their books in 2024.
L.A. could designate Stafford as a post-June 1 release, but that wouldn’t be cheap, either. In that scenario, the Rams would only take on $13.5 million in dead money in 2023, but they’d have another $36.5 million coming in 2024.