Matthew Stafford’s 16th NFL season and fourth with the Los Angeles Rams concluded with a Divisional Round loss to the eventual Super Bowl champion Eagles. At 37 years old, Stafford is the league’s second-oldest projected starting quarterback for 2025, behind only Aaron Rodgers (41). PFSN examines the case for and against the Rams bringing Stafford back for another season in 2025.
Why the Rams Could Keep Matthew Stafford
Matthew Stafford was healthy and reasonably productive in 2024, marking the first season since 2021 that he didn’t miss a game due to injury. However, he did sit out the team’s Week 18 contest this season as a coach’s decision.
While Matthew Stafford’s counting stats weren’t spectacular, many of his rate stats showed improvement compared to 2023. He increased his completion percentage from 62.6% in 2023 to 65.8% this season and improved his success rate from 47.6% to 49.0%. Additionally, he reduced his interception rate from 2.1% to 1.5%, the lowest of his career (excluding the 2010 season, when he played only three games).
The Rams have a strong supporting cast to support Stafford as he continues to age. Even with the expected trade of Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams are all under contract for next season. Additionally, Los Angeles benefits from significant cap flexibility due to a young and cost-effective defense. Spotrac estimates the Rams will have just under $40 million in cap space for 2025, the 15th-most entering this offseason.
Trading Stafford would leave a $45.3 million dead cap hit on the Rams’ books if they trade him before June 1. Stafford would also account for $22.7 million in dead money in 2026 if traded in this timeframe. If the Rams can convince a trade partner to process a Stafford deal after June 1, then Los Angeles would have dead money hits of $22.7 million in both 2025 and 2026.
Under a post-June 1 scenario, the Rams would save $27 million in cap space this year and $31 million next year. However, an acquiring team would not have Stafford for OTAs and most of their minicamp practices if he’s not traded until after June 1.
In terms of draft assets, the Rams won’t have their second-round pick after trading up last year to select defensive tackle Braden Fiske. However, they do hold an extra third-round compensatory pick, awarded due to the Falcons hiring Raheem Morris as their head coach.
Sean McVay has shown no indications of leaving, which provides the Rams with an exceptionally high floor. Since McVay took over in 2017, the Rams have made the playoffs in six of eight seasons and posted a winning record in seven of them. Additionally, Los Angeles has boasted a top-10 scoring offense in four of those eight seasons.
The 2024 Rams finished 20th in scoring offense, but PFN’s Offense+ metric indicates they performed at a higher level. Los Angeles ranked 11th overall with a 79.5 (C+) grade in the metric. Since Matthew Stafford arrived in 2021, the Rams have ranked sixth, seventh, and 11th in Offense+ during his healthy seasons (they fell to 25th in 2022 when Stafford was limited to nine games).
Why the Rams Could Trade Stafford
While Stafford’s production was solid overall, some indicators suggest he may be in decline. PFN’s QB+ metric graded him at 71.9 (C-), ranking 22nd among quarterbacks this season. This was his second-lowest score since the metric’s inception in 2019, trailing only his injury-shortened 2022 season (64.6). Since leading the NFL in QB+ in 2021, Stafford has not finished inside the top 10 in the metric.
Matthew Stafford QB+ By Season with Rams
- 2021: 93.4 (A), 1st
- 2022: 64.6 (D), 26th
- 2023: 79.4 (C+), 14th
- 2024: 71.9 (C-), 22nd
Overall, Stafford’s production since the Super Bowl-winning season has mostly hovered around league-average. From 2022-24, he ranks 16th in EPA per dropback (0.06) and 12th in success rate (48%). Even if you just look at the last two seasons to exclude his injury-shortened 2022 season, Stafford ranks 13th in EPA per dropback (0.09) and 13th in success rate (48.3%) from 2023-24.
Wide receiver injuries didn’t help, but Matthew Stafford struggled to generate big plays in 2024. Only 13.2% of his completions went for 20+ yards, a sharp decline from 19.0% in 2023. He was also less effective on deep throws, with his completion percentage on passes traveling 20+ air yards dropping from 47.0% in 2023 to 42.0% this past season.
Matthew Stafford’s biggest area of concern reflects his age and limited mobility. Under pressure, he averaged -0.46 EPA per dropback, ranking 28th out of 36 quarterbacks. When kept clean, however, he remained effective, ranking seventh in EPA per dropback (0.31). This disparity means Stafford experienced the third-largest decline in EPA per dropback when pressured, trailing only Joe Flacco and Jalen Hurts.
As Matthew Stafford continues to age, he has become increasingly reliant on his offensive line. This season, he scrambled on just 1.2% of plays when pressured, the lowest rate among all qualifying quarterbacks.
The Rams’ offensive line was roughly average in pass protection this season. They ranked 13th in PFN’s offensive line rankings during the regular season and allowed the ninth-lowest non-blitz pressure rate (29.7%), though some of that can be attributed to Matthew Stafford’s quick release. By ESPN’s Pass Block Win Rate metric, however, the Rams ranked 20th, highlighting some inconsistencies in their pass protection performance.
Left tackle Alaric Jackson and versatile backup Joseph Noteboom are both free agents. While the Rams certainly have the salary cap space to hang on to Jackson in particular, any further defections or a lack of improvement along the line could magnify Stafford’s injury risk.
Stafford’s Fit With The Giants
Sometimes, it’s important to not overthink things. Your eyes have been underwhelmed by New York in recent years and there is significant statistical support to back that up.
Fewest points per drive over the past four seasons
- Carolina Panthers: 1.57
- New York Jets: 1.51
- New York Giants: 1.46
For reference, the NFL average over that stretch is 1.97.
In addition to need, there is a design trend working in his favor. QBs who lack mobility (Stafford had one more rush attempt than passing touchdowns in four regular seasons in Los Angeles) generally require quick hitting offenses in order to maximize what they do well
Since Brian Daboll took over, the Giants rank fourth in terms of lowest average depth of throw (11.6% below league average). Factoring into that plan moving forward is the presence of a potentially franchise altering receiver learning the NFL ropes — a situation we’ve seen Stafford in with regularity.
By way of Calvin Johnson (in five full seasons with Stafford, he ranked top-3 in the league in catches, targets, yards, and touchdowns at the position)), Cooper Kupp (2021 Triple Crown), and Puka Nacua (broke a 62-year old record for receiving yards for a rookie), Stafford has proven capable of maximizing elite talents at the receiver position and that is what New York seems to have in Malik Nabers.
As a rookie, Nabers ranked behind only the aforementioned Nacua in terms of target rate last season (30.9%) despite no NFL experience and very little help from his supporting cast.
Stafford’s Fit With The Raiders
The Raiders ranked 11th in pass rate over expectation a season ago (a continuation of their willingness to embrace the analytics, even if limited options – they ranked 19th in 2022 and 16th in 2023), an encouraging sign that this team would be willing to really open things up with competent play under center.
Jakobi Meyers, since 2022, among 186 WRs with 20+ games played
- 29th in slot receptions per game (1.8)
- 28th in slot targets per game (2.6)
- 24th in slot yards per game (22.5)
- 15th in slot TDs per game (0.2)
Stafford during his tenure with the Rams
- 8th in slot completions per game (7.8)
- 7th in yards per slot target (8.8)
- 3rd in yards per game to the slot (96.2)
- 1st in TD/INT rate to the slot (4.1)
- Broke Puka Nacua’s record for receptions by a rookie, a record Stafford helped guide Nacua to
- Broke Mike Ditka’s record for receiving yards by a rookie TE
- Zero rookie wall
- First 8 games: 6.5 catches on 8.1 targets for 66.9 yards (26.9% target rate)
- Last 9 games: 6.7 catches on 9.8 targets for 73.2 yards (25.2% target rate)
Brock Bowers TD! His 5th of the season
📺: #LACvsLV on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/p4dizJZbjo— NFL (@NFL) January 6, 2025
The roster is in place to support a veteran like Stafford and while it’s dangerous to carry over team trends year-over-year, one can’t help but be intrigued by what is in front of the Raiders for the 2025 regular season.
Las Vegas seven games in 2025 coming against a defense that created pressure at a below average rate in 2024 (they see four of the six worst teams at generating heat in the Jaguars, Colts, Titans, and Patriots)
Stafford’s non-pressured completion percentage in 2024 was 73.1%, his best mark as a Ram, and he fired 18 touchdown passes against just two interceptions in such situations a season ago. This team isn’t Super Bowl ready, but the cupboard isn’t bare and a veteran quarterback could help shine a light on what this team is capable of doing.