Indianapolis Colts quarterback Matt Ryan is looking to compete for a Super Bowl after being traded from the Atlanta Falcons this past offseason. What is Ryan’s fantasy football outlook for 2022, and what’s his current ADP in fantasy drafts?
Matt Ryan’s fantasy outlook for 2022
Seeing longtime Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan in a new uniform in 2022 will be strange. After spending 14 years in Atlanta, Ryan was granted his wish for a trade to the Colts after his former franchise failed to land Deshaun Watson. Now 37, Ryan is in the twilight of his career.
The veteran can be more than just a stopgap for the Colts after their failed Carson Wentz experience. He’s still an elite processor with great accuracy and timing on short and intermediate routes. Obviously, Ryan is not a threat to run often, making him more of a low-end starter or high-end backup who offers fantasy managers consistency over outbursts that can swing an entire matchup.
His in-pocket play is remarkable even as the weapons around him have fluctuated. Since 2012, Ryan has completed no less than 64.7% of his attempts and threw for less than 4,095 yards just once (2021). He’s averaged 24 touchdowns to 12 interceptions per year since 2019 despite seeing his surrounding cast get worse in recent seasons.
With just one game missed since 2009 and three total throughout his career, Ryan is the definition of reliable. Expect that to continue as he plays behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL in Indianapolis. He’ll also benefit from superstar tailback Jonathan Taylor’s presence as the featured playmaker.
Ryan has only played in a top-eight rushing attack twice in his entire career. That will certainly change in 2022, with Taylor leading the way. Ryan’s touchdown rate dipped from 4.2% in 2019 and 2020 to 3.6% last year. We should see that number rise as Taylor can take a significant amount of pressure off his shoulder this season and put the offense in better passing situations.
Ryan finished 20th in fantasy points last year. The two most notable reasons for his drop from being a high-tier backup and low-end starter was his dip in attempts per game from 39 in 2018-2020 to 33. Wentz attempted 30 per game last year, but the Colts were extra protective with him at quarterback due to his volatility.
We should not expect Ryan to throw closer to 40 times per game. Those Falcons’ offenses ranked amongst the top in the NFL in passing frequency. The Colts will be much more balanced but can be more effective per attempt with Ryan.
How the Colts depth chart impacts Matt Ryan’s fantasy projection for the season
The Colts have some unknowns at receiver. Michael Pittman Jr. is a budding star and should thrive with Ryan at quarterback, thanks to how their skill sets overlap. Pittman eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark with Wentz, and he should easily repeat that feat this season. Pittman is a solid route-runner with great hands, giving Ryan a big body to target on all three levels of the field.
Second-round rookie Alec Pierce has a more questionable fit with Ryan. I wasn’t a huge Pierce fan coming out of Cincinnati, as his toughness at the catch point and ability to create separation were major concerns. However, he was also playing with a quarterback with his own problems with ball placement and anticipation. Ryan will not put Pierce in the same position and will instead get the ball exactly where it needs to for Pierce to finish strong.
Parris Campbell will hopefully earn the third receiver spot if he can stay healthy. Campbell was an incredible athlete before a set of random injuries kept him off the field. If he can’t stay available, Dezmon Patmon and Ashton Dulin will fight for targets.
Ryan has an unsettled but promising tight end room. Veteran Mo Alie-Cox is a fine stopgap but nothing special athletically. Rookies Jelani Woods and Andrew Ogletree will fight for time with 2021 fourth-round pick Kylen Granson. Woods is the most interesting because of his athletic testing at the Combine.
Ryan simply cannot compete with dual-threat quarterbacks who can overcome poor passing performances with their legs. He can, however, be a solid QB2 with an uptick of touchdowns back to his career average. We’d love for his interceptions to drop slightly from 2.1% to closer to the 1.8% he had in 2020.
His range of outcomes is not wide. You can take Ryan mostly knowing what to expect. He should not cost a significant amount in your draft.
Ryan’s ADP in 2022
Ryan’s current ADP sees him being taken as the 20th QB off the board. In 1QB leagues, you are likely not even considering Ryan outside of a potential streaming option during the season. However, in Superflex, he is currently being valued as a mid-QB2. He is sitting next to Ryan Tannehill in terms of ADP, just ahead of the likes of Jameis Winston.
That group is very telling of what people expect from Ryan at this stage of his career. Floor-wise, Ryan is playing behind a good offensive line, with a good running game that will command respect, and with some talented pass catchers. However, that run game and the offensive line is also what could cap his ceiling. The Colts can run their offense through the ground game and then use Ryan off of that.
Ryan’s value in PFN’s consensus 2022 PPR fantasy rankings is almost exactly that of his ADP as the 20th QB off the board. As a solid QB2 in Superflex leagues, you can certainly do much worse. The likes of Daniel Jones, Justin Fields, and Trevor Lawrence may have more upside, but they also have much lower floors.
He may not be an exciting option, but Ryan should be someone you can feel good about starting in your Superflex spot most weeks without too much risk.