The Buffalo Bills’ running back situation has been an enigma all season. With Zack Moss vanquished to the weekly inactive list, fantasy football managers are left to decide between Devin Singletary and Matt Breida if they want a piece of this backfield. Which running back is the better start in Week 13?
Devin Singletary remains the clear lead back, but Matt Breida might be the better fantasy RB
Week 12 was the first time Moss was inactive since Week 1. Prior to the Bills’ Thanksgiving Day game, there were reports Breida would get more work. Singletary wound up playing 68% of the snaps, while Breida saw 32% of the snaps for a second consecutive week. Breida’s snap share did not increase even without Moss active.
Last week, Singletary carried the ball 15 times for 44 yards and caught 1 pass for 4 yards. Breida, meanwhile, only had 26 yards on 9 carries and 29 receiving yards on 2 receptions. While that may seem like a negative, Breida’s opportunities have increased in each of the past three games. He had 6 in Week 10, 7 in Week 11, and 11 in Week 12.
Both running backs may be fantasy-viable
Breida has been more efficient than Singletary while Singletary dominates in volume. It’s possible both could see enough volume on Monday night due to the weather.
Currently, the forecast calls for a mix of rain and snow with 20-40 mph winds. Heavy winds make passing difficult, which leads to more runs and short passes. It’s possible Breida sees 10-12 opportunities again while Singletary is in the 14-16 range. That type of split would make both startable RB3s.
The Patriots are an average matchup
The Patriots allow the 14th-most fantasy points to running backs. Not a great matchup, but not one to avoid either. While they’ve been playing phenomenal defense recently, they also haven’t faced a good offense since the Chargers in Week 8.
With that being said, rushing isn’t exactly the Bills’ strength. Buffalo throws the ball on 60% of their plays, and Josh Allen has 69 carries of his own. It’s also very possible this game turns into an ugly, low-scoring defensive slog. That would be good for Singletary and Breida’s volume, but bad for their scoring upside.
Should fantasy managers start Singletary or Breida?
While Breida has outscored Singletary in fantasy points for three straight weeks, he’s mostly done that by scoring touchdowns. Last week, prior to catching a 23-yard touchdown pass on the Bills’ final offensive play, Breida had 4.2 fantasy points.
While Singletary hasn’t been particularly productive, he remains the better start based on volume. Breida’s touchdown fortune feels fluky. If the Bills do get near the end zone and decide to run, it will likely be Singletary over Breida. He remains the back with the higher floor and higher ceiling. Singletary should be viewed as a volume-based RB3 while Breida is more of an RB4.