Denver Broncos WR Marvin Mims Jr. did not even register in fantasy football last season. The seldom-used rookie either was not given or did not earn the opportunity to produce. With a wide-open depth chart behind Courtland Sutton, does our 2024 projection point to Mims’ role increasing?
Marvin Mims Jr.’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Fantasy points per game: 8.6
- Receptions: 47
- Receiving Yards: 805
- Receiving TDs: 2.1
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 14. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Mims This Year?
For a guy who only touched the ball 31 times all season, Mims actually was able to put some nice plays on tape. He averaged an impressive 17.1 yards per reception, just 1.0 short of George Pickens for tops in the NFL.
Head coach Sean Payton admitted to not properly utilizing Mims last season.
#Broncos HC Sean Payton on Marvin Mims:
“I really think the only thing that really stopped his progress as a receiver was us… I think his progress was hampered a little bit more with the depth in the room and what we were able to do and sometimes trying to balance that out. I… pic.twitter.com/BKIXY6p2aA
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) February 27, 2024
The problem with this type of comment is … what depth? The 2023 Broncos had some of the worst WR depth in the league.
Behind Sutton and Jerry Jeudy, the Broncos’ next three target earners were Javonte Williams, Samaje Perine, and Jaleel McLaughlin — three running backs! Mims couldn’t out-target Adam Trautman or even Brandon Johnson on a per-game basis.
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It’s easy to say, “Well, Mims was a rookie.” It’s easy to take Payton’s comments at face value. But it’s essential to ask why Payton chose to not play Mims more, especially considering the lack of pass catchers on this team. For a WR with second-round draft capital to be unable to earn more than a 7.4% target share on this offense, this is quite concerning.
While he was an elite special teamer, that doesn’t really do much for us in fantasy. Mims totaled 377 receiving yards as a rookie. Wide receivers who fail to reach 525 receiving yards as rookies seldom produce even a single season of 12+ fantasy points per game (ppg). If we blanket dismiss every one of these players, we are going to come out on top long-term.
The Broncos have since parted ways with Jeudy. The path is there for Mims to be this team’s WR2. Yet, I can’t shake the feeling that journeyman Josh Reynolds is going to occupy that role.
They also have Tim Patrick returning from two devastating injuries. It remains to be seen what he can still do, but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he wound up operating as the WR3.
Then, there’s also rookie fourth-rounder Troy Franklin, who played at Oregon with new starting QB Bo Nix. All of this is to say that I struggle to see Mims emerging.
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The PFN consensus projections are quite a bit more bullish on Mims. However, 8.6 ppg is not someone fantasy managers should be looking to draft.
I have Mims projected for 15 receptions for 219 yards and 1.5 touchdowns. Suffice it to say that is not going to get the job done.
Mims has a WR78 ADP. I ranked him at WR71. I guess that puts me ahead of the consensus. But that far down draft boards, it’s really just take a shot on whoever you want. I am not interested in drafting Mims this season.
Derek Tate’s Fantasy Insight on Marvin Mims Jr.
Mims’ ADP at No. 238 overall as the WR79 off the board paints a picture that the second-year receiver isn’t set for a breakout season in this retooled Denver offense in 2024. For some additional context, Mims is being drafted after players like Wan’Dale Robinson, Malachi Corley, and his Bronco teammate Franklin in the same round.
There are certainly some reasonable excuses as to why Mims failed to make a significant fantasy impact his rookie year.
The quarterback play was good but not great. The complexities of operating in Payton’s timing-based scheme may have well resulted in a larger learning curve than that of the offense he played in during his days at Oklahoma. Lastly, he did deal with a hamstring injury last summer that possibly left him a bit behind heading into his rookie year.
Ultimately, Mims wasn’t able to earn a consistent or prominent role in this offense behind Sutton or the inconsistent Jeudy. The team added another vertical playmaker this offseason in Franklin as added target competition, and there is no guarantee this passing offense becomes more dynamic or productive with a rookie quarterback under center.
At this price point, Mims could be worth a final-round dart throw in leagues that have point bonuses for big plays, but his rookie year in this offense didn’t give us enough to suggest an impending breakout year is on the horizon in 2024.