Marvin Mims Jr., the first offensive draft-day investment of the Sean Payton era in Denver, didn’t exactly produce the type of production fantasy managers were hoping for in his lackluster rookie year.
After the organization drafted its next franchise quarterback and another talented vertical playmaker in this year’s NFL Draft, what can fantasy football managers expect from Mims in 2024?
Should You Select Marvin Mims Jr. at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 235th Overall (WR78)
- Lackluster Rookie Year: Mims’ rookie season was underwhelming, finishing as WR89 with 22 receptions for 377 yards and one touchdown. His limited production leaves fantasy managers with little confidence heading into 2024.
- Increased Competition: The Broncos drafted Troy Franklin, a speedy wideout from Oregon, to pair with rookie quarterback Bo Nix. Courtland Sutton also remains a key target, further complicating Mims’ path to more opportunities.
- Big-Play Ability: Mims showed flashes of big-play potential, especially with a standout game against Washington. His 15.1-yard average depth of target is enticing for best ball formats, though he needs a bigger role to be more consistent.
- Uncertain Role: Mims was on the field for more than 50% of offensive snaps in just two games last season. Unless he can surpass Franklin and Josh Reynolds for snaps and targets, his production may remain limited.
- Potential Opportunity: The departure of Jerry Jeudy or any issues with Sutton’s contract could open up more targets for Mims. However, this is speculative and relies on several factors falling into place.
- ADP Analysis: Mims’ current ADP as WR79 reflects skepticism about a breakout. He’s being drafted after players like Wan’Dale Robinson and his teammate Franklin. While there are excuses for his rookie struggles, a significant leap in 2024 is far from guaranteed.
- Final Verdict: Mims could be worth a final-round dart throw in leagues that reward big plays, but his rookie year didn’t show enough to expect a breakout in 2024. His role in a crowded Denver offense is too uncertain to confidently invest in at his current ADP.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Marvin Mims Jr.
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis. Since Mims is ranked outside the top 75 in the PFN Consensus Rankings, we’ve listed the consensus WR rankings instead.
63) DeMario Douglas, WR | New England Patriots
64) Jahan Dotson, WR | Washington Commanders
65) Adam Thielen, WR | Carolina Panthers
66) Dontayvion Wicks, WR | Green Bay Packers
67) Ja’Lynn Polk, WR | New England Patriots
68) Marvin Mims Jr., WR | Denver Broncos
69) Michael Wilson, WR | Arizona Cardinals
70) Ricky Pearsall, WR | San Francisco 49ers
71) Xavier Legette, WR | Carolina Panthers
72) Quentin Johnston, WR | Los Angeles Chargers
73) Malachi Corley, WR | New York Jets
Marvin Mims Jr.’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
Mims’ 2023 production of 22 receptions for 377 yards and one score — good for a WR89 fantasy finish his rookie year — doesn’t exactly give fantasy managers much reason to get excited about his outlook heading into his second season.
Courtland Sutton saw 67 more targets and scored nine more touchdowns than Mims last year and will be on the roster in 2024. The team also drafted the speedy wideout from Oregon, Troy Franklin, to join his college quarterback, rookie No. 12 overall pick Bo Nix, in the Mile High city this season. Lastly, Mims caught just three more passes than Brandon Johnson in 2023.
On the plus side though, Mims definitely flashed some legitimate big-play ability as a vertical separator during his rookie year. Mims’ biggest game last year — two receptions for 113 yards and a score — came against the woeful Washington Commanders secondary in a game where he managed to pop a couple monster plays down the field.
The biggest question heading into the new season is whether he will be utilized as anything more than a deep threat in his second year. He was on the field for more than 50% of the offensive snaps in just two games last season. His 15.1-yard average depth of target is exciting in best ball formats, but unless he sees his role expand by significant margin in 2024, then it becomes difficult to project a big jump in production.
The departure of Jerry Jeudy could open up a bigger role for Mims this season, if he manages to beat out Franklin and the newly acquired Josh Reynolds for snaps and targets in 2024.
One factor worth monitoring is Sutton’s contract situation, which, if it leads to any missed games for the veteran, could break this target competition wide open for a player like Mims to emerge as a sneaky fantasy option in 2024.
Is Mims a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
Mims’ ADP at No. 238 overall as the WR79 off the board paints a picture that the second-year receiver isn’t set for a breakout season in this retooled Denver offense in 2024. For some additional context, Mims is being drafted after players like Wan’Dale Robinson, Malachi Corley, and his Bronco teammate Franklin in the same round.
There are certainly some reasonable excuses as to why Mims failed to make a significant fantasy impact his rookie year.
The quarterback play was good but not great. The complexities of operating in Payton’s timing-based scheme may have well resulted in a larger learning curve than that of the offense he played in during his days at Oklahoma. Lastly, he did deal with a hamstring injury last summer that possibly left him a bit behind heading into his rookie year.
Ultimately, Mims wasn’t able to earn a consistent or prominent role in this offense behind Sutton or the inconsistent Jeudy. The team added another vertical playmaker this offseason in Franklin as added target competition, and there is no guarantee this passing offense becomes more dynamic or productive with a rookie quarterback under center.
At this price point, Mims could be worth a final-round dart throw in leagues that have point bonuses for big plays, but his rookie year in this offense didn’t give us enough to suggest an impending breakout year is on the horizon in 2024.