Denver Broncos WR Marin Mims Jr. is coming off of a rookie season in which he was hardly used (33 targets in 16 appearances) but did showcase the splash play potential (17.1 yards per catch) that made him a second-round pick (ahead of receivers like Tank Dell, Josh Downs, and of course, the sleeper of the class in Puka Nacua).
With Sean Payton in his second season at the helm, should fantasy football managers be buying low on Mims now and embracing his potential?
Marvin Mims Jr.’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
Mims’ ability to stretch the field proved to be a transferable skill for the burner out of Oklahoma. In a conservative offense (26th in average depth of target), Mims posted a 15.2 aDOT and saw 42.4% of his targets come at least 15 yards down the field.
Marvin Mims can MOVE! ⚡️ pic.twitter.com/Hvn1ZdstqN
— Cody Roark (@CodyRoarkNFL) July 24, 2024
That profile isn’t built for consistency, but with Payton identifying Bo Nix as the future of the position for this franchise, the frequency of usable weeks could certainly increase. Here is what the great Ian Cummings penned in his pre-draft analysis of Nix, a profile that clearly fits what it is that Mims has proven capable of doing:
- Hyper-elite arm elasticity lends universal angle freedom and rare off-platform comfort.
- Composite arm talent allows him to layer pace and touch on seam and hash throws.
- Has high-level creation capacity and can instinctively slither out of congested pockets.
- Flexibility and high-energy corrective mechanical failsafe amounts to effortless torque.
- Mechanical failsafe yields impressive overall accuracy and flashes of elite precision.
- Able to keep his eyes up working off-script and quickly trigger on open receivers.
- Actively diagnoses mismatches pre-snap and uses that information to operate post-snap.
- Has shown he can anticipate second-window throws over the middle of the field.
It was a small sample last season, but Mims did see three end zone targets, an encouraging breadcrumb that could lead to an increase in fantasy stock. He doesn’t appear likely to ever become a target magnet, but if he can marry the deep routes with the ability to win in the painted area, there’s a path to flex value.
The concern, as mentioned, is his inability to win routes with consistency. In 2023, he was targeted on just 13.6% of his routes, well below the NFL receiver average of 18.8%. For comparison, he was in the same tier as Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Quentin Johnston and Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Skyy Moore. You can write this off as rookie struggles or the result of a struggling offense, but the fact of the matter is that it needs to trend closer to league average for Mims to sniff fantasy lineups in 2024.
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The appeal is straightforward, and for a player who isn’t always drafted, throwing a dart in the final round is plenty acceptable. In those situations, I find myself trending toward New York Jets wide receiver Malachi Corley or Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Roman Wilson instead, embracing veteran quarterback play over the unknown in Denver. However, the point could be made that a rookie under center comes with an unknown upside that could be special.
As long as you keep expectations in check, Mims is a fine speculative pick. If you go this route, I’d encourage you to be patient. This offense could struggle early, but if they round into form for the second half of the season, they do close the fantasy season with the Colts, Chargers, and Bengals in Weeks 15-17.
Jason Katz’s Fantasy Insight on Marvin Mims Jr.
While he was an elite special teamer, that doesn’t really do much for us in fantasy. Mims totaled 377 receiving yards as a rookie. Wide receivers who fail to reach 525 receiving yards as rookies seldom produce even a single season of 12+ fantasy points per game (ppg). If we blanket dismiss every one of these players, we are going to come out on top long-term.
The Broncos have since parted ways with Jeudy. The path is there for Mims to be this team’s WR2. Yet, I can’t shake the feeling that journeyman Josh Reynolds is going to occupy that role.
They also have Tim Patrick returning from two devastating injuries. It remains to be seen what he can still do, but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he wound up operating as the WR3.
Then, there’s also rookie fourth-rounder Troy Franklin, who played at Oregon with new starting QB Bo Nix. All of this is to say that I struggle to see Mims emerging.
The PFN consensus projections are quite a bit more bullish on Mims. However, 8.6 ppg is not someone fantasy managers should be looking to draft.
I have Mims projected for 15 receptions for 219 yards and 1.5 touchdowns. Suffice it to say that is not going to get the job done.