With the 2023 NFL Draft in the rearview mirror, fantasy football managers — particularly those in dynasty leagues — are trying to size up rookie values. The Denver Broncos made a fascinating second-round selection, opting for WR Marvin Mims. What might dynasty managers expect from him?
Marvin Mims’ Dynasty Outlook and Value
There’s no such thing as “everything that could go wrong, did go wrong.” I mean, really. Everything? Let’s not be absolutist. There are always exceptions.
But if we were to apply this phrase to any NFL team last year, it would probably be most fitting for the Broncos. They entered the season with the eighth-best odds of winning the Super Bowl. Acquiring Russell Wilson was supposed to be a game-changer, with the nine-time Pro Bowler poised to elevate Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, and Tim Patrick to levels that were simply unattainable with Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater under center.
Oh, and a terrific defense combined with a stellar backfield (remember Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon, circa 2021?) gave Denver the best shot at a title since 2015 (when the Broncos had the sixth-best odds).
Then Patrick was knocked out for the season. Then Williams. Gordon kept fumbling the ball and was eventually jettisoned. And through it all, Wilson looked like a shell of his former self.
Denver had only five draft picks, and their first came at the tail end of the second round. It’s notable that they selected Mims, despite having three starting-caliber receivers on the roster. It’s also notable that the only other offensive player they drafted was center Alex Forsyth, whom they took with the third-to-last pick (No. 257).
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Clearly, they wanted a wide receiver to join this crowded corps. And not just any receiver. They wanted Mims.
So what’s their plan? On Monday morning, they picked up Jeudy’s fifth-round option. Sutton is under contract for three more years, while Patrick (who’s turning 30 this coming season) is on the hook for two more years. Of course, Denver can cut bait with both of them after this season, with only some dead-cap pain.
In other words, Mims’ early-career trajectory could take two wildly different paths. On one path, he’ll battle for attention as the No. 4 or No. 5 overall offensive option in a questionably talented offense.
On another path, he’ll acclimate as a rookie before the Broncos decide to dismantle their receiving corps and start over in 2024, with Mims (perhaps) leading the way that following season if they find a team to acquire Jeudy on a one-year rental.
There are other “middle” paths, including the team cutting or trading Patrick after this year and proceeding with Jeudy, Sutton, and Mims in an all-or-nothing 2024 campaign.
The key here is that A) we don’t know what this WR unit will look like in a year, and B) Mims has the versatility to play all over the field. The point is, Denver will work him into the offense. That’s a given. We simply don’t know if it’ll be enough to make him fantasy-relevant.
Marvin Mims’ Fantasy Ranking
PFN’s Tommy Garrett ranks Flowers No. 32 in his rookie dynasty mock draft, sandwiched between Jaguars RB Tank Bigsby and Bears RB Roschon Johnson. As we know, rankings are largely subjective because they hinge not only on objective truths about players but also perceptions of how they’ll be utilized, as well as personal fantasy preferences.
For example, you might be the kind of manager who loads up on 1B running backs (“complementary” RBs like Dillon) and RB handcuffs, knowing that you can get massive upside at relatively little expense.
Or you might be a best-in-class manager who targets elite positional-skill players whenever possible, followed by filling positional gaps. Why take a running back who gets you 6-8 points when you can snag a wide receiver who averages 8-10?
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I fall into the former camp, which means I’m normally biased against guys like Mims, especially on a team with such a crowded receiving corps. But his situation in Denver should lower his market value, at least for now. And that could make him a terrific buy in the third round of 12-team drafts, or even a little earlier.
It depends on how many bench spots you can carry — essentially, whether you can comfortably afford to be patient with the talented Mims. He’s going to have an impact in this league. The question is, “When?” If you can stash him away for a couple of years without thinking twice, then he’s worth reaching for beginning in the middle of the second round. He’s a 1,000-yard receiver waiting to happen.