One of the underrated wide receivers in the NFL and fantasy football, Jacksonville Jaguars WR Marvin Jones Jr. projects to be a late-round pick once again as his 2022 fantasy outlook suggests he could be a value in upcoming drafts. With the NFL season and fantasy drafts closing in, what is Jones Jr.’s fantasy outlook in 2022, and could he prove to be a value at his current ADP?
Marvin Jones Jr.’s fantasy outlook for 2022
One of my favorite signings during last year’s free agency period was Jones to the Jaguars. He was a fantastic No. 2 for a long time in Detroit and was getting his chance to be the No. 1 in Jacksonville.
However, what we didn’t know was the absolute chaos that was set to be the Jaguars last year. And as a result, virtually everyone struggled. However, Jones was still sneaky good. The WR35 was fourth amongst all players in red-zone targets with 17. He also saw a ton of volume, recording 120 targets, catching 73 for 132 yards and four touchdowns. The only real downside was his efficiency, averaging 9.9 points per game, ranking 51st.
Jones has been a solid receiver throughout his career. Even over the last three years, his per-game average would have been on pace for over 950 yards and eight touchdowns. That’s not a fluke. Projected to be the outside receiver in one of the NFL’s pass-happiest offenses, Jones is likely being underrated in fantasy for 2022.
This should be a much more efficient and cohesive offense under Doug Pederson and in Trevor Lawrence’s second year. Don’t get me wrong; I’m not saying the Jaguars will be good. But they’ll put up points for fantasy managers. Given his projected role, it’s very realistic we see Jones in the WR3/4 range for fantasy this year.
How the Jacksonville Jaguars’ depth chart impacts Marvin Jones Jr.’s fantasy projection for the season
While it might not seem like at first glance, the Jaguars actually have a pretty talented offense. It all starts with Lawrence. He’s the guy scouts and evaluators viewed as the next Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck. However, he most certainly did not have a season reflecting that. Lawrence completed under 60% of his passes for 3,600 yards with 12 touchdowns and 17 interceptions. But as with anyone on this team, I’m giving them a pass for what happened last year. I do believe Lawrence will make significant strides under Pederson.
Jacksonville has a solid duo at running back in Travis Etienne and James Robinson — if both can get and stay healthy. Etienne loks to be the No.1 and should earn significant usage in the receiving game. 2022 draft pick Snoop Conner is also a name to watch out for gold-line carries.
Where things get crowded is when we look at the pass catchers. For one, the Jaguars made one of the more surprising free agent acquisitions in Christian Kirk, who was given a Brinks truck of cash to sign. Kirk is coming off a breakout campaign in Arizona, and so long as Jacksonville keeps him in the slot this year, there’s no reason to assume Kirk can’t have similar success for fantasy. So far, he has been Lawrence’s top target and should be the No. 1 in the regular season too.
Also added was Zay Jones, who actually proves to be more competitive for Marvin Jones than Kirk does. Similar to Marvin, Zay also has the ability to stretch the field. Serving as Lawrence’s deeper target, Marvin Jones needs to hold onto this role. Rounding out the past catchers are Jamal Agnew, Laquon Treadwell, and everyone’s favorite enigma, Laviska Schenault Jr.
As with virtually every Pederson offense, we expect to see quite a bit of 12-personnel, harking back to his days with the Philadelphia Eagles. Yet, instead of Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert, the Jaguars have Evan Engram and Dan Arnold. Engram is the assumed TE1, but Arnold is being massively undervalued for fantasy at the moment.
Marvin Jones Jr.’s ADP for 2022
With an ADP of 220, Jones Jr. is coming off the boards as the WR75 in PPR formats, placing him near the very extreme outside the range of draftable players in 12-team fantasy leagues. For comparison, Kirk has an ADP of 102 as the WR41.
In PFN’s 2022 fantasy football redraft rankings, Jones Jr. is significantly higher as the WR56 and 141st overall player. Be sure to check back, as rankings will fluctuate between now and the start of the season.
While I don’t believe Jones will have the same value in 2022, he absolutely is worth drafting contrary to his current ADP. The Jaguars, while very early, look drastically improved compared to the mess that was last season. There is space to operate, and Lawrence is making throws we expect someone of his pedigree to make.
Maybe because it’s Jacksonville, people forget about some players; I don’t know. What I do know is Jones, especially at his current ADP, is a value and could even be used as a bye week fill-in until some of the talented rookies assert themselves and move up rankings.