If you’re a college football fan, you’re acutely aware of the profile. If not, buckle up.
Arizona Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison Jr. is a polished prospect who projects not only as the top receiver in the desert but on your fantasy football roster as well. But is it wise to put such high expectations on a 22-year-old kid playing alongside a quarterback who has yet to throw for 4,000 yards in a season and has missed 18 games over the past three years?
Marvin Harrison Jr.’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
Let’s call 2023 what it was for the Cardinals — a mess. Kyler Murray missed the first nine games of the season, and Arizona struggled to remain competitive on both sides of the ball.
That said, in December, we did see some signs of hope, as the Cardinals totaled 60 points in games against the Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers.
Marvin Harrison, Jr.
Red Zone 1-on-1. pic.twitter.com/DBbG34Fky0
— Matt Bowen (@MattBowen41) February 26, 2024
That’s no small accomplishment for an offense that was very green in terms of NFL reps. At the end of the season, Arizona didn’t have a receiver reach 575 receiving yards, and no player on this team even caught five touchdown passes.
That’s about to change.
Harrison caught 14 touchdowns in each of his final two seasons at Ohio State. After exploding in 2022 and giving every defense film to work off of, all he did was average 18.1 yards per catch last season. His opponents were well aware of what they were going up against, and they simply had no answer for this inevitable prospect.
The supporting cast isn’t elite, but with players like TE Trey McBride (81-825-3) and WR Michael Wilson (6’2” and 14.9 yards per catch as a rookie) getting valuable reps under their belts, things are moving in the right direction.
Helping elevate the floor of this offense is Zay Jones (seven-year veteran) and a ground game that should rank above average. James Conner is coming off his first 1,000-yard season as a rusher, and Arizona spent the 66th overall pick on Florida State RB Trey Benson.
The Cardinals and the New York Jets are, in my opinion, the two most likely offenses to jump from bottom 10 in scoring in 2023 to a top-10 unit in 2024.
If you run down the top offenses from a season ago, you’ll notice that they all have an elite fantasy pass catcher in tow (CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, Brandon Aiyuk, Mark Andrews, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Stefon Diggs, A.J. Brown, Puka Nacua, Chris Olave, and Amari Cooper).
Why can’t Harrison produce in the vein of some of those names? I prefer his upside to that of Olave due to the talent under center, logic that applies when comparing Harrison’s 2024 potential to that of Drake London, another high-pedigree receiver gaining steam this offseason.
Drafting the rookie in the early-to-mid second round is a leap of faith, but these elite prospects are entering the pros increasingly ready to produce. Three of the top four all-time receiving-yardage seasons by a rookie have come in the past four years (Nacua, Ja’Marr Chase, and Justin Jefferson).
It’s not fair to expect historic numbers, though it’s plenty fair to put numbers like that within Harrison’s range of outcomes if Murray can make it through an entire season, something he hasn’t done since 2020. That’s the risk that sits in the back of my mind, though it’s one that exists for many due to the physical nature of the sport.
Drafting Harrison is a matter of risk tolerance and roster construction. If you spent early on a running back, I have no issue in selecting Arizona’s alpha. If at the end of the first round, you selected a receiver, I’d be more likely to grab a running back with Tier 1 upside. If Jonathan Taylor or Saquon Barkley remains on the board in the first half of Round 2, they provide safer value to complement your WR1.
Harrison is worth the risk. There are options at a loaded WR position if you want a more proven entity, but I wouldn’t be considering any of the one-off positions over him when looking to build a winner in 2024.
Derek Tate’s Fantasy Insights on Marvin Harrison Jr.
Harrison is going to be quite volatile regarding his ADP when fantasy football drafts roll around later this year. He’s currently coming off the board at No. 16 overall as the WR9.
This may feel like an aggressive fantasy ranking at the moment, but the path to an elite target share for an immensely gifted receiver prospect certainly makes a top-10 fantasy finish at the WR position within Harrison’s range of outcomes in 2024.
Sure, this second-round price tag means you are relying on him to be your WR1 or WR2, depending on your roster construction. This makes it feel like you are drafting him far closer to this ceiling than his potential floor in 2024.
The case can certainly be made that going with other veteran options in the same range, such as Davante Adams, Chris Olave, and Drake London, would likely be the safer course of action, yet we saw both Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson finish as the WR5 and WR6, respectively, in their rookie seasons.
I believe Harrison is that type of talent, which means I would feel comfortable selecting him in the second round of fantasy drafts this season.
