The Green Bay Packers decided to part ways with veteran running back Aaron Jones just to sign Josh Jacobs in an attempt to retool the rushing attack heading into the 2024 NFL season. Yet, the selection of USC RB MarShawn Lloyd brings both explosiveness but some uncertainty regarding his role in this offense.
What can fantasy football managers expect from Lloyd in his rookie year in Green Bay’s offense?
Should You Select MarShawn Lloyd at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 155th Overall (RB48)
- Loaded Backfield: Lloyd enters a Green Bay offense with established backs like Josh Jacobs, who signed a lucrative four-year deal, and AJ Dillon, who was re-signed despite an underwhelming 2023 season.
- Uncertain Role: While Lloyd could secure the full-time backup role to Jacobs, it’s difficult to project a reliable weekly workload for him in 2024, limiting his fantasy impact. Lloyd tweaked his hamstring during the Packers’ first preseason game, which could make it tough for him to carve out a significant role.
- Potential for Dual Usage: The Packers have a history of utilizing two running backs heavily, which could give Lloyd some standalone fantasy value. However, it’s unlikely he overtakes Jacobs as the lead back.
- Skill Set: Lloyd has impressive burst, creativity, and contact balance as a runner, along with pass-catching ability that offers three-down potential. However, his tendency to bounce runs outside and pass protection issues could limit his early opportunities.
- ADP Analysis: Lloyd’s current ADP as RB48 makes him an intriguing option, especially given his big-play potential. However, his role in the Packers’ backfield remains uncertain, making him a risky pick at this stage.
- Final Verdict: Lloyd has the talent to be a valuable complementary piece in an ascending Green Bay offense, but the presence of Jacobs and Dillon, combined with uncertainties about his role, makes it difficult to justify drafting him at his current ADP. He might be worth a late-round flier, but expectations should be tempered.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for MarShawn Lloyd
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis. Since Lloyd is ranked outside the top 75 in the PFN Consensus Rankings, we’ve listed the consensus RB rankings instead.
45) Rico Dowdle, RB | Dallas Cowboys
46) Jaleel McLaughlin, RB | Denver Broncos
47) Tyler Allgeier, RB | Atlanta Falcons
48) Ty Chandler, RB | Minnesota Vikings
49) Kendre Miller, RB | New Orleans Saints
50) MarShawn Lloyd, RB | Green Bay Packers
51) Roschon Johnson, RB | Chicago Bears
52) Ray Davis, RB | Buffalo Bills
53) J.K. Dobbins, RB | Los Angeles Chargers
54) Jaylen Wright, RB | Miami Dolphins
55) Khalil Herbert, RB | Chicago Bears
MarShawn Lloyd’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
Lloyd had an interesting football journey all the way from his five-star recruit days at DeMatha Catholic High School to his inconsistent production at South Carolina and USC.
Lloyd enters a Green Bay offense that is absolutely loaded with young playmakers around quarterback Jordan Love, including the 26-year-old Jacobs acting as the elder statesman. To make matters worse, the organization re-signed AJ Dillon, who had a very underwhelming 2023 campaign.
The Packers’ uncharacteristic aggressive move in free agency this offseason, signing Jacobs to a lucrative four-year deal, clouds Lloyd’s immediate fantasy outlook entering the professional ranks.
Now, this isn’t necessarily a death sentence to his fantasy value in 2024 if he can secure the full-time backup role to Jacobs. But it does make it difficult to project a reliable weekly workload to project Lloyd having a big fantasy impact this year.
It doesn’t help that Lloyd tweaked his hamstring in the Packers’ first preseason game. After the game, Packers head coach Matt LaFleur sounded frustrated about Lloyd’s lack of availability, as he also dealt with a hip injury that sidelined him early in training camp.
“He’s going to have to get healthy,” LaFleur said. “We’ve seen what he’s capable of doing in practice, but you’d just like to see it in a real game.”
When asked about the injury, Lloyd said he can walk on it, so he hopes it isn’t too serious.
“I’ve had hamstrings before, so I’ll just rehab and get back as fast as I can,” Lloyd said, adding that he’s been dealing with the hamstring issue throughout training camp and that he felt it pull on the play in which he got hurt.
#Packers RB MarShawn Lloyd said he's been pushing through a hamstring issue in camp and felt it pull while bouncing a run outside. "I've had hamstrings before, so I'll just rehab and get back as fast as I can," he said. Said he can walk on it OK, so he's hoping it's not bad.
— Tom Silverstein (@TomSilverstein) August 11, 2024
There is a small case to be made that two Green Bay backs can be fantasy relevant. After all, we’ve seen the Packers’ offense utilize two running backs heavily over the last three years, with the aforementioned Jones and Dillon having both seen over 140 carries during that span.
This could give Lloyd some standalone fantasy value this year, but it’s still hard to envision him stealing this backfield from Jacobs at any point this season.
Lloyd has great burst, creativity, and contact balance as a pure runner. Additionally, his ability as a reliable pass catcher does give him some three-down upside in the NFL. Yet, Lloyd’s tendency to bounce runs outside prematurely and his issues in pass protection could limit how much he sees the field early in his career.
There is some upside as a complementary piece in an ascending offense and as a nice handcuff to Jacobs. However, Lloyd’s current fantasy outlook doesn’t feel all too optimistic in 2024.
Is Lloyd a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
Lloyd’s ADP at No. 155 overall (RB48) makes him an interesting ADP study among the rookie running back landscape. For some additional context, Lloyd is currently being drafted ahead of Antonio Gibson, Jaylen Wright, and Jaleel McLaughlin.
We can’t definitively say Lloyd is the preferred backup option over Dillon — who is still under contract for the 2024 NFL season.
Sure, Dillon was very underwhelming last year and doesn’t feel like a surefire lock for the 53-man roster this year, but there is familiarity and trust within this coaching staff with him that Lloyd will have to overcome.
If Lloyd is going to miss significant time as he recovers from his hamstring injury, that will make it even more difficult for him to surpass Dillon on the depth chart.
Then there’s Jacobs, who’s proven he can be a full-time feature back in the NFL and still has some prime years left if we’re operating under the assumption of the age cliff hitting later in his 20s.
Lloyd’s big-play ability in this ascending offense is very intriguing, but his role feels a bit too uncertain at this time to take a flier at this price point.