The Green Bay Packers‘ decision to move on from Aaron Jones in favor of Josh Jacobs as their leading ball carrier certainly is an exciting development for fantasy football managers. Yet, this comes at the expense of an optimistic dynasty outlook for USC’s MarShawn Lloyd, who was selected in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft.
Set to work behind Jacobs heading into his rookie year, how does Lloyd’s dynasty outlook shape up heading into the NFL?
Should You Draft MarShawn Lloyd in Dynasty Fantasy Football?
Green Bay’s offense is absolutely loaded with young playmakers around quarterback Jordan Love. In fact, at 26 years old, Jacobs feels like the elder statesman.
Yet, the Packers uncharacteristically splurged this offseason in free agency by giving Jacobs a lucrative four-year deal. The length of the contract has him set to remain with the team through the 2027 NFL season.
Unfortunately, that’s likely to be the exact same time that Lloyd’s rookie deal expires, which means it’s within the range of outcomes that he never supplants Jacobs as the starter during his rookie deal.
Now, this isn’t necessarily a death sentence to Lloyd’s dynasty value. We’ve seen the Packers’ offense utilize two backs heavily over the last three years, with the aforementioned Jones and AJ Dillon — who is still on the roster — having both seen over 140 carries each season.
This could give Lloyd some standalone value, assuming he beats out Dillon for the backup role. Yet, it’s hard to envision Lloyd stealing this backfield from Jacobs over the next two years.
Lloyd has great burst, creativity, and contact balance as a pure runner, but his tendency to bounce runs outside prematurely and his issues in pass protection limit the chances I see of him ever taking this backfield from Jacobs.
There is some upside as a complementary piece in an ascending offense and as a nice handcuff to Jacobs. However, Lloyd’s current dynasty rookie draft price in the second or third round certainly presents some risk.
Who Is Lloyd?
Background
Lloyd was a highly touted five-star RB prospect (by Rivals) during his days at DeMatha Catholic High School in Maryland. His outstanding senior season saw him get selected for the Opening Finals, the Under Armour All-American Bowl, and the Polynesian Bowl.
In addition to his production for the football program, Lloyd also participated in sprinting events with the track & field team during his prep days.
College Production
Lloyd’s college career got off to a somber start when he tore the ACL in his left knee during practice as a true freshman in 2020, costing him the entire season.
The following year, Lloyd saw plenty of action, with 272 total yards and a score in his first 12 games of action as a redshirt freshman. His production saw a sizeable jump, though, in 2022 when he led the team in rushing yards (573) and total touchdowns (11) in his final nine games as a member of the Gamecocks.
KEEP READING: Dynasty Rookie Rankings
Ahead of his redshirt junior year, Lloyd transferred to USC, where he generated 1,052 yards from scrimmage to go with nine total TDs.
Injury History
Lloyd has a lengthy injury history, starting with his aforementioned torn ACL in 2020. In 2021, he missed South Carolina’s bowl game against North Carolina due to an injury.
In 2022, Lloyd missed four games during his final year with the Gamecocks due to injury. Lastly, he missed the game against the Washington Huskies in 2023, officially missing a minimum of one game each year of his college career.
Lloyd’s Strengths and Weaknesses
Strengths
- Exceptional elusiveness; Lateral agility is top-shelf with the ability to change direction at the moment of truth by dropping his weight to stop on a dime, then sticking his foot in the ground to reaccelerate/bursting through the contact of an over-pursuing defender after making a sharp cut.
- Burst/acceleration jumps off the tape; Can change tempos effectively when pressing the hole before hitting the gas pedal to explode through openings between the tackles; Consistently had the juice to take the edge even when out-leveraged by defenders.
- Patience, vision, and foot quickness to operate effectively in gap or zone schemes.
- Fluid pass catcher out of the backfield who can be an effective contributor to the passing game at the next level.
- Highly instinctive back, a great feel for timing moves at the contact point. His yards after contact and broken tackle metrics on a per-touch basis were among the best at the RB position in this class.
Weaknesses
- Ball security has consistently been a major issue throughout his entire collegiate career; Eight fumbles over 323 total touches means he puts the ball on the ground once every 40 touches, which is far too often for a high-volume ball carrier.
- Pass protection is a concern. Some bad reps in 2023 was both steamrolled and whiffed against a blitzing LB against Colorado, and some costly whiffs against Cal highlight some of his consistency issues in pass pro.
- Despite having good vision, Lloyd does occasionally get a bit too greedy with trying to bounce runs outside.
- Durability concerns are certainly valid entering the NFL; Missed a minimum of one game every season of his collegiate career. His worst injury suffered was a torn ACL back in 2020.