Now entering his third year in the NFL, it seems that Baltimore Ravens WR Marquise Brown is heading into a make-it-or-break-it fantasy football season after two disappointing years. With added competition and an overall lack of volume working against him, can Brown be a valuable asset, or does his fantasy outlook suggest fading him at his current ADP?
Marquise Brown’s fantasy outlook for 2021
The clock is ticking for Brown. If the receiver does not break out by his third year, the odds of it ever happening will plummet. Unfortunately for Brown, the Ravens are never going to be a team that force-feeds their receivers. They attempted the fewest passes last season (406), which was the lowest total since the Seattle Seahawks back in 2012 (405). So, it’s not just a Brown issue; it’s a scheme problem that will not change.
Since 2017, here are the Ravens’ WR1s and their fantasy finishes:
2017 – Mike Wallace (WR38 with 151.2 PPR and 10.1 ppg)
2018 – John Brown (WR45 with 143.9 PPR and 9.0 ppg)
2019 – Marquise Brown (WR46 with 146.4 PPR and 10.5 ppg)
2020 – Marquise Brown (WR36 with 183 PPR and 11.4 ppg)
Since 2018, Brown is 57th in targets per game (5.7), 63rd in receptions (3.47), and 59th in yards (45.1). But when he gets hot, he gets hot.
From Week 12 and on last season, Brown was the WR13 (16.0ppg). He scored 6 of his 8 touchdowns and 52% of his fantasy points over the final six games.
That is the upside you are hoping for, but you never know when it will come. Brown was a WR2 or better three times (18%) but a WR4 or worse in eight games (50%) with none inside the top 12.
With added competition from Rashod Bateman and Tylan Wallace, 2021 will likely be more of the same from Brown, leaving him a volatile flex option in fantasy.
Fantasy projection
If there is one positive takeaway from the additions of Bateman and Wallace, it is that Brown’s role is safe. Bateman is a true perimeter “X,” where Wallace is a “Z,” leaving Brown to maintain his role in the slot. The last thing his fantasy outlook needs is to compete for targets from his role in the offense.
But that does not mean Brown will come out scot-free with no negative impact. Bateman will assuredly command a sizable chunk of the targets where Wallace is in more of a rotational role behind newly signed Sammy Watkins.
I expect Brown to lead the WRs in targets, but likely not the 25.5% target share he saw in 2020. TE Mark Andrews is the primary passing option (23%), with Brown behind him at 19.5% in my current but early projections.
I can see the Ravens throwing the ball a bit more in 2021. I think the absurdly low 27.4 attempts per game last year was even too low for John Harbaugh’s liking. Lamar Jackson is still only one year removed from his MVP season, and Baltimore’s main offensive focus in the offseason was surrounding him with pass catchers.
While they will not be the Atlanta Falcons or Los Angeles Rams, 31 attempts per game are more reasonable to expect. In the end, this will benefit Brown, but when compared to the league, it is not enough to make a jump in rankings.
My early projections have Brown just shy of 100 targets with around 70 receptions, 775 yards, and 6 touchdowns.
Marquise Brown’s ADP
According to Sleeper, Brown is currently being selected at an ADP of 117.1 in half-PPR formats. In superflex leagues, given the priority of quarterbacks, he falls to 131. According to NFC (a high-stakes fantasy platform), Brown has an ADP of 111.05. And on Fleaflicker, his ADP currently sits at 133.5.
Should you draft Brown in fantasy in 2021?
While all roster decisions are yours to make, I would suggest passing on Brown in fantasy. I do not believe his outlook is worth the investment. If I am selecting a receiver on the WR3/4 cusp in drafts, I expect that player to be in my starting lineups every week. That is never going to be Brown, at least not on the Ravens.
Brown has more finishes outside the top-60 (12) in his two years than finishes as a WR2 (7). This is only going to lead to frustration and eventually benching Brown, thus a wasted pick.
On NFC, Brown is going ahead of players like Laviska Shenault, Antonio Brown, Darnell Mooney, and Russell Gage. I would rather have all four of those receivers. If you want Brown on your roster when he gets hot, there is a decent chance he could be on waivers after a scorned manager dropped him.