Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Marquise Brown is beginning a new chapter in his career this season. The Baltimore Ravens traded Brown to Arizona during the 2022 NFL Draft. Now playing with Kyler Murray on a team that will be without DeAndre Hopkins for the first six weeks, what is Brown’s fantasy football outlook for 2022, and should fantasy managers target him at his ADP in fantasy football drafts?
Marquise Brown’s fantasy outlook for 2022
In Baltimore, Brown was miscast as the team’s WR1. But he made the most of it. While his first two seasons were lackluster (Brown averaged 10.5 and 11.4 PPR fantasy points per game, respectively, in each), he took a big step forward in his third season. In 2021, Brown averaged 14.1 ppg, finishing as the WR22 (minimum eight games played), which seems pretty good … right?
If you only look at Brown’s season-long average, you wouldn’t know the full picture. Brown’s 2021 season truly was a tale of two halves. Over his first eight games, Brown was the overall WR5, averaging 18.1 ppg. But in his last eight games, Brown was the overall WR44, averaging 9.5 ppg.
In the first half of the season, Brown had six games with at least 69 receiving yards, including three 100-yard games. From Weeks 1-7, Brown scored six touchdowns. After that point, he didn’t score again. Brown’s highest receiving total in a single game after Week 9 was 55 yards.
It’s admittedly difficult to project Brown’s future performances based on his past, given his drastically different circumstances. Brown went from an offense that prefers to run the ball as much as possible to a team that is more pass-heavy. However, up to this point in his career, we have a player that’s been a quality fantasy starter for just an eight-game stretch out of 46 total games.
How the Cardinals’ depth chart impacts Marquise Brown’s fantasy projection for the season
There are several moving parts that impact Brown’s 2022 fantasy value. The Cardinals’ depth chart looks very different than it did last season. With Chase Edmonds and Christian Kirk playing elsewhere, 26.3% of the Cardinals’ targets from last season are gone. For the first six games, DeAndre Hopkins won’t be around either.
Brown once again finds himself in a position where he will have to act as a team’s WR1. Fortunately, it will only be for six games.
Brown fits what Kyler Murray wants to do
Last season, Murray was fourth in the NFL with 7.9 yards per attempt. A stretch Z like Brown meshes very well with his playstyle. And the Cardinals have desperately needed an outside receiver that can stretch the field so they can turn their horizontal raid offense into an actual Air Raid offense.
Although the second half of Brown’s 2021 season was poor, it did prove that Brown could be utilized closer to the line of scrimmage if needed. It gives Brown and the Cardinals much-needed versatility on offense. He should lead the team in target share over the first six games. Last season, Kirk had an 18% target share. I expect Brown to be a couple of percentage points above that.
There’s also the always popular “shower narrative.” Murray and Brown played together at Oklahoma in 2018. It doesn’t mean Brown is going to overtake Hopkins as the team’s WR1 suddenly, but it does mean there’s at least some established rapport between the two.
With Brown’s top competition for targets being 31-year-old Zach Ertz and 34-year-old A.J. Green, he’s in a great position to once again return WR2 value and also do so at a more consistent rate than he did in 2021.
Brown’s ADP for 2022
Brown’s ADP is around the late-fifth to early-sixth round. He’s going as about the 21st wide receiver off the board. This is a reasonable price for a player set to be the WR1 on a high-powered offense for almost half the fantasy regular season.
Whether you draft Brown comes down to how you feel about him as a player. If you think he’s capable of being a more complete receiver and producing consistently over the course of a full season, he’s a solid pick at his ADP. If his second-half disappearing act of 2021 concerns you, then feel free to avoid him, as there are many quality receivers going right around where Brown goes.
His current position in PFN’s consensus 2022 PPR fantasy rankings is as the WR26 at 64th overall. That is largely matching his consensus PPR ADP but is slightly below the individual ADP of most sites.