Fresh off a career-best season, Baltimore Ravens WR Marquise Brown is one of the more intriguing names for dynasty fantasy football managers to figure out in 2022, as his fantasy production last season was phenomenal. Can Brown duplicate his success, and is he one of the better dynasty and fantasy values heading into 2022?
Marquise Brown’s dynasty profile for 2022
Last season was unquestionably the best one yet for “Hollywood” Brown. It was also the tale of two seasons.
From Weeks 1 through 9 (eight games), Brown had 46 receptions on 69 targets for 682 yards and 6 TDs as the WR6 in PPR formats (18.8 ppg). That had him on a 17-game pace of 98-of-147 receiving for 1,449 yards and 13 touchdowns. The back half of the season was not as friendly, mostly due to the absence of Lamar Jackson for four games.
From Weeks 10 through 18 (eight games), Brown caught 45 passes for 326 yards with no touchdowns on 77 targets. Over this stretch, Brown was the WR47, averaging almost half as many points at 9.5 per game.
It’s worth noting that Rashod Bateman missed the first five games but had little impact on Brown overall. In fact, in games with Bateman on the field (11), Brown averaged 9.2 targets and 16.5 xFP (expected fantasy points) compared to 7.6 and 15.8 without him. It was just an overall drop in efficiency with Josh Johnson and Tyler Huntley under center, which should come as no surprise.
Brown’s production is more closely tied to Mark Andrews than anyone
While I expect Bateman to take a step forward in his development, dynasty managers need to pay more attention to Mark Andrews’ impact on Brown in 2022. They are the top two targets, and last season’s stats back this up.
In the 11 games with Brown, Andrews, and Jackson on the field, Brown averaged 8.6 targets/game, 75 yards, 0.55 TDs, a 26.6% target share, and 22.9% targets per route run. In comparison, Andrews averaged 7.7 targets/game, 67.1 yards, 0.36 TDs, 23.8% target share, and 22.4% targets per route run.
Brown appears to be a great value for dynasty in 2022
Interestingly enough, between Brown, Andrews, and Bateman, it’s Brown who is the lowest valued receiver in the dynasty community despite coming off a 91-of-146, 1,008-yard, and 6-touchdown season. While age is a premium, he will only be 25 come the start of the season. Brown is considered a low-end WR3 compared to Bateman as a low-end WR2 and is being drafted nearly two full rounds ahead of him.
This is nothing against Bateman. I love Bateman and felt he was one of the most pro-ready receivers of his draft class. It’s simply to point out the value of Brown as Jackson’s No. 1 target at receiver. While I expect the 146 targets and even the 611 Jackson pass attempts to drop (ninth in 2021), Brown showed he could maximize his opportunities.
In those same 11 games with Jackson, Brown averaged 12.1 air yards per target, a 67.3% catch rate, 12.7 ypc, 8.5 yards per target, and picked up 33 first downs. Without him, Brown’s aDOT (average depth of target) was 9.1, with a 52.1% catch rate, 6.9 yards/rec, 3.6 yards/target, 0 TDs, and 8 first downs. Jackson will not go away from Brown anytime soon so long as both are on the same field.
Do I believe Bateman gets better and asserts himself into the passing game more in 2022? Absolutely. With that said, I don’t see him passing Brown in the pecking order. The only concern for dynasty is Brown entering the final year of his contract (although the Ravens can pick up his fifth-year option). My assumption is Baltimore does everything they can to keep Jackson and Brown together. Even if it’s for just the next two seasons, Brown is a great value for a team looking to win a dynasty championship in 2022.
Fantasy projection for Brown
As somewhat touched on before, I don’t expect the 146 targets to carry over completely into 2022 for fantasy. With that said, there is more than enough to go around. They don’t run 4WR personnel groups. They used two or three WR sets on 96% of their offensive plays.
Brown and Andrews accounted for 299 targets last season. Bateman, Devin Duvernay, Sammy Watkins, and James Proche had 184 combined. So, even if we do see Bateman take the expected leap, Brown will still be well north of 120 targets in 2022.
While Brown did end the season as the WR23 (14.1 ppg), as noted, that is due more in part to the absence of Jackson. Fantasy managers remember the slide of Brown’s production in the playoffs when they needed it the most. They forget the beginning of the season which helped get them there. It feels as though he is still carrying the value of a hit-or-miss low-end WR3 rather than a difference-making WR2.
There was a rumor of Brown hanging up the cleats to pick up the controller. Make no mistake about it. Brown will not be playing video games professionally in 2022 in a de facto contract year. If he sees the expected 120-range of targets and maintains a similar efficiency level, we could be looking at an 85-plus-reception and 1,000-plus-receiving-yard season. In fantasy, I’ll take that on my team in 2022, especially given his current required draft capital.