WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling’s dynasty value has yet to spike despite playing with nothing but Hall of Fame-level quarterback play. And with the Kansas City Chiefs deciding to go another direction this offseason, he is destined to enter an offense with less upside than anything he has experienced up to this point in his NFL career.
We know that he is capable of breaking big plays — could a fresh start put him in position to see more consistent targets and thus have a chance at exceeding fantasy football expectations?
Marquez Valdes-Scantling’s Dynasty Outlook
Valdes-Scantling had another year on his deal with the Chiefs, but the two-time reigning Super Bowl champions, who are void of depth at the receiver position, elected to save $12 million in cap space and release him.
The #Chiefs are releasing WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, per @JFowlerESPN.
The move creates $12 million in cap space for KC and allows the deep threat to find a new home. 👀 pic.twitter.com/Sau9pXEEzI
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) February 28, 2024
This happening, obviously, hurts the quality of target for MVS, and given that he has yet to prove himself as a consistent opportunity earner, that damages his fantasy stock in a significant way.
Despite spending his entire career with QBs Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes, Valdes-Scantling has yet to produce a 700-yard season and has more than three touchdown receptions just once in six seasons.
- 2020: 6 TDs on 465 routes (63 targets)
- Since: 6 TDs on 1,299 routes (178 targets)
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In theory, him moving on could land him in an offense that asks more from him in terms of a role. Yet, the deeper you dive, the less likely that seems. Last season, he ranked 94th in route win rate (40.7%), and during his tenure with the Chiefs, he dropped 6.5% of his targets, not exactly the type of profile that encourages a team to extend his usage.
Where Valdes-Scantling calls home will impact how often he reaches his ceiling (15.8 career aDOT, 17.7 in 2023), but we have enough of a resume to know that spotty production is the best-case scenario — he’s a Hail Mary Flex play at best, and even that feels optimistic given the play he has put on film up to this point.
Valdes-Scantling’s Dynasty Ranking
Where does Valdes-Scantling land in the dynasty WR landscape going into the 2024 offseason? Here are Soppe’s latest rankings, featuring where Valdes-Scantling lands in comparison to other top names at the position.
1) Ja’Marr Chase | CIN
2) Justin Jefferson | MIN
3) Tyreek Hill | MIA
4) CeeDee Lamb | DAL
5) Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET
6) A.J. Brown | PHI
7) Garrett Wilson | NYJ
8) Jaylen Waddle | MIA
9) Chris Olave | NO
10) Tee Higgins | CIN
11) Brandon Aiyuk | SF
12) Puka Nacua | LAR
13) DJ Moore | CHI
14) Nico Collins | HOU
15) Rashee Rice | KC
16) Michael Pittman Jr. | IND
17) Amari Cooper | CLE
18) Cooper Kupp | LAR
19) DeVonta Smith | PHI
20) DK Metcalf | SEA
21) Zay Flowers | BAL
22) Drake London | ATL
23) Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA
24) Davante Adams | LV
25) Mike Evans | TB
26) Tank Dell | HOU
27) Jayden Reed | GB
28) Deebo Samuel | SF
29) Calvin Ridley | JAX
30) Stefon Diggs | BUF
31) Jordan Addison | MIN
32) Keenan Allen | LAC
33) Terry McLaurin | WAS
34) George Pickens | PIT
35) Chris Godwin | TB
36) Josh Downs | IND
37) Jameson Williams | DET
38) Gabe Davis | BUF
39) Michael Wilson | ARI
40) Elijah Moore | CLE
41) Romeo Doubs | GB
42) Jerry Jeudy | DEN
43) Christian Kirk | JAX
44) Diontae Johnson | PIT
45) DeAndre Hopkins | TEN
46) Khalil Shakir | BUF
47) Joshua Palmer | LAC
48) Jahan Dotson | WAS
49) Courtland Sutton | DEN
50) Jakobi Meyers | LV
51) Treylon Burks | TEN
52) Christian Watson | GB
53) K.J. Osborn | MIN
54) Marquise Brown | ARI
55) Mike Williams | LAC
56) Tyler Lockett | SEA
57) Zay Jones | JAX
58) Jonathan Mingo | CAR
59) Quentin Johnston | LAC
60) Jalin Hyatt | NYG
61) Noah Brown | HOU
62) Tutu Atwell | LAR
63) Michael Thomas | NO
64) Marvin Mims Jr. | DEN
65) Kendrick Bourne | NE
66) Adam Thielen | CAR
67) Cedric Tillman | CLE
68) Rashid Shaheed | NO
69) Brandin Cooks | DAL
70) Trey Palmer | TB
71) Darius Slayton | NYG
72) Wan’Dale Robinson | NYG
73) Darnell Mooney | CHI
74) Kadarius Toney | KC
75) Rashod Bateman | BAL
76) John Metchie III | HOU
77) Rondale Moore | ARI
78) Skyy Moore | KC
79) Donovan Peoples-Jones | DET
80) Alec Pierce | IND
81) Mecole Hardman Jr. | KC
82) Allen Lazard | NYJ
83) Tyler Boyd | CIN
84) DJ Chark | CAR
85) Josh Reynolds | DET
86) Odell Beckham Jr. | BAL
87) Michael Gallup | DAL
88) Tyquan Thornton | NE
89) Curtis Samuel | WAS
90) Isaiah Hodgins | NYG
91) Robert Woods | HOU
92) Terrace Marshall Jr. | CAR
93) Hunter Renfrow | LV
94) Xavier Hutchinson | HOU
95) Kayshon Boutte | NE
96) Marquez Valdes-Scantling | FA
97) Greg Dortch | ARI
98) Parris Campbell | NYG
99) JuJu Smith-Schuster | NE
100) Chase Claypool | MIA
Should You Trade Valdes-Scantling in Dynasty?
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I’d love to lay out an optimistic path for Valdes-Scantling, developing into a consistent producer who also carries the single-play upside that we’ve seen from him up to this point, but the league as a whole is shifting away from this type of receiver.
NFL averages:
- 2015-17: 8.3 aDOT
- 2018-20: 8.1 aDOT
- 2021-23: 7.7 aDOT
The rules are structured to favor the offense, and defenses have combated that by looking to prevent the splash plays over the top (be it via long reception or a back-breaking defensive pass interference penalty).
MVS is unlikely to ever check the quantity argument when it comes to targets, and the quality of targets simply doesn’t get much better than what he has experienced up to this point in his career.
Players like Valdes-Scantling deserve to be rostered in these leagues with deep rosters based on upside alone. Even if you’re not confident in him, there is no denying that he has the ability to make a big play, and if your roster is in dire straights, that has utility.
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I’d hold onto him at the moment — there is little to gain by dangling him out in the trade market, so be patient and see where he lands. At the very least, I’d hold onto him until he generates some optimism (be it in the preseason or courtesy of a huge play early in the 2024 season) before looking to sell your shares of him.
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