As the New Orleans Saints head into the 2021 NFL season without their top receiver, second-year WR Marquez Callaway might end up being the player with the best fantasy football outlook based on what we have seen this preseason. A potential breakout candidate, should fantasy managers consider drafting Callaway at his current ADP in upcoming drafts?
Marquez Callaway’s fantasy outlook for 2021
The burning question of the Saints’ offseason has been who will step up and be the leading receiver?
After undergoing a second surgery to repair his ankle ligaments, Michael Thomas’ timeline is up in the air. The one thing we do know is that he will miss the start of the season. According to multiple reports, Thomas needs roughly four months to recover from the time of his surgery (June). This places his return around the Week 6 to Week 8 timeframe. With Thomas on the shelf for the foreseeable future, someone in the WR corps has to step up.
If you ask those close to the team, second-year WR Marquez Callaway is the leading candidate to fill the void. Callaway has been the favorite practice target for both Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill this preseason.
Callaway put the NFL and fantasy community on notice in just two games (third game canceled due to Hurricane Ida). His first game consisted of 3 receptions on 4 targets for 61 yards. He then blew up in the second preseason game to the tune of 104 yards and 2 touchdowns while catching all 5 targets.
Winston had no issue reverting back to his old ways and letting his receivers make a play, and Callaway did just that by pulling in the highlight catch of the entire preseason for his first touchdown.
Going undrafted out of Tennessee, Callaway caught 21 passes for 213 yards last season in limited work. He had his best game in Week 6, recording 8 receptions on 10 targets for 75 yards.
Callaway was the star of camp
Reports from Saints camp were that Callaway is their breakout player for 2021. And based on what we have seen, it’s safe to say they might have been on to something. In fact, former Saints WR Emmanuel Sanders was trying to tell us this last December.
“Marquez Callaway. I’m telling you guys, you better remember his name. I’ve got a feeling if the guy stays healthy, he’s going to be a special player in this league.”
All Callaway has to do is stay healthy at this point, and he will obliterate his current ADP. Who is going to contest him until Thomas comes back? That’s if he comes back, I should say. For three seasons, we have been hyping up Tre’Quan Smith. If it were going to happen, it would have by now. The rest of the depth chart is Deonte Harris, Lil’Jordan Humphrey, and Ty Montgomery, who is apparently going to focus on being a receiver.
The sky is the limit for Callaway, and I believe that even when Thomas returns to the field, he will be an integral component of this offense. If you are looking for that late-round or final pick of a draft with massive upside, look no further than Callaway and reap the rewards.
Fantasy projection
The issue for creating projections for the Saints is that for the first time in what seems like 30 years, Drew Brees is not going to be on the field. Instead, Winston will be the primary QB with a rotation with Hill for more specialized plays. After all, no one loves anyone like Sean Payton loves Taysom Hill.
Winston is an aggressive QB who has no problem going vertical and taking shots on 50/50 balls. I mean, you don’t throw 30 interceptions in a season by checking the ball down. Last season, Winston said he went to the Saints to get a masterclass in the art of playing QB from both Brees and Payton. Now, it’s time to see if he was taking notes.
Even if we see Hill under center for a sizeable chunk of the reps, this is not an awful thing. In his four starts last season, Hill went 82-of-114, passing for 834 yards and 4 touchdowns, with 211 yards and 4 TDs on 39 carries. That’s not lousy football. But the difference is the aggressiveness. Just as we saw in the preseason, Winston has no qualms taking deep shots. This means that any route that Callaway runs could be a game-breaking reception.
With the season just a week away, my current projections have Callaway slated for around 64 receptions on 95 targets for 900 yards and 5-6 touchdowns.
Marquez Callaway’s ADP
According to Sleeper, Callaway is currently the WR77 with an ADP of 213.1 in PPR formats. However, in the high-stakes NFC format, Callaway is the WR57 with a 133.9 ADP. On Fleaflicker, he is going as the WR50 at an ADP of 116.
Should you draft Callaway in 2021 for fantasy?
Without question, you should be drafting Callaway. It’s worth touching on the ADP discrepancies. On both NFC and FleaFlicker, their ADPs can be sorted to reflect Thomas’ news and the current expectations of Callaway. On Sleeper, it is more reflective of where he was before the preseason. However, he has seen a significant jump all around.
Even with his increased value, Callaway is still underpriced. If you still have last-minute drafts, do not leave it without Callaway. If your league has drafted and somehow Callaway is on waivers, go get him now.