A perennial top tight end, Baltimore Ravens star Mark Andrews disappointed fantasy football managers last season by not being a true difference-maker before his season was cut short due to injury.
Now fully healthy, is Andrews being undervalued for perhaps the first time in his NFL career? What does his projection say?
Mark Andrews’ 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Fantasy points per game: 14.0
- Receptions: 85
- Receiving Yards: 1,040
- Receiving TDs: 8
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 14. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Andrews This Year?
Since breaking out in 2019, Andrews has never finished lower than the overall TE5. He’s probably never going to be the guy who averaged 17.7 fantasy points per game (ppg) in 2021 again. However, that might actually work to our benefit.
Due to Andrews’ incredible 2021 season that saw him finish as the overall TE1, fantasy managers’ expectations have been a bit skewed. He was overdrafted in 2022. After returning a mediocre 12.7 ppg, fantasy managers were not dissuaded. Andrews once again cost a premium in 2023.
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Last year, Andrews rebounded a bit, averaging 13.5 ppg, but it was actually a bit better than that. Andrews’ season ended early due to injury. In addition to that not sitting well with fantasy managers, playing only seven snaps in his final game made his season appear worse than it was. If we factor out his final game, Andrews averaged 14.6 ppg.
Combine the injury with the breakouts of Sam LaPorta and Trey McBride, suddenly the fantasy community isn’t so bullish on Andrews anymore. He’s old news.
Well, Andrews is still just 29 years old. He’s got a few prime years left. There’s no reason to think he can’t return to being an elite tight end.
The Ravens may finally have a WR1 in Zay Flowers, but I’ve still got Andrews projected for a very healthy 24.5% target share. And, if anything, I may be underselling him a bit.
Andrews was at a 22.2% target share last season. Before that, he was at 29%, 26.6%, and 25.4%. Even with my modest projections for Andrews, he comes out as the overall TE4, but just barely behind the TE3.
I projected Andrews for 80 receptions for 1,024 yards and eight touchdowns, giving him 13.58 fantasy points per game.
With a TE3 average draft position (ADP), Andrews doesn’t jump out as a clear value. This is a case where his overall ADP actually matters. In the early third round, I have no interest in Andrews. It’s too difficult for him to provide a positive return on investment. But in the fourth round — and sometimes the end of the fourth round? I am very interested.
Elite tight ends are more valuable than elite QBs relative to their position. I typically want to draft one of the onesie positions early (never both), but I’d rather not spend too high of a pick to gain that advantage.
Andrews offers that elite difference-making upside at a reduced cost relative to where he’s typically gone throughout his career. I can’t help but ask — what’s changed?
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Why are we suddenly getting a 1.5-2-round discount on a proven top player at his position? I think the answer is as simple as what I mentioned previously: Fantasy managers are enamored with the new hotness of LaPorta and McBride. Andrews is now viewed as a tier below, to an extent.
At Andrews’ ADP, if he meets my projection, he is well worth it, but there’s certainly a chance he can exceed it. In my rankings, I have Andrews at TE2 behind Travis Kelce and ahead of LaPorta and McBride. He is someone I am looking to aggressively target in fantasy drafts this season.