The 2023 fantasy football season is here, meaning now is the time to dive into Baltimore Ravens TE Mark Andrews’ fantasy projections to determine whether or not managers are receiving a value on draft day. Can Andrews perform like the elite TE he was last year, and should he be a player you draft this year?
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Mark Andrews’ 2023 Fantasy Projection
Few players mean more to their teams than Andrews does to the Ravens. Some fantasy managers who have had him on rosters over the last several seasons would also agree with his importance.
Andrews was second in the league in target share at 23.6% and first in air-yard share at 26.3%. In 15 games, Andrews hauled in 73 of his 113 targets for 847 yards and five touchdowns. He finished as a TE1 in 60% of his games in 2022 despite the lackluster passing attack and dip in TD production from nine the year before.
He was fifth in aDOT (9.8), fourth in red-zone targets (18), No. 2 in xFTPS/g (-0.56), fourth in YPRR (2.19), No. 2 in YPTPA (2.01), fifth in EPA, and third in fantasy points per route run (0.49 PPR).
It was also the tale of two seasons for Andrews. Over the first six games, Andrews had 455 yards and five touchdowns on 37 receptions but then had 34 receptions and 392 yards with no scores over the last nine games while dealing with knee and shoulder issues. It also didn’t help that Lamar Jackson was absent for a good portion of the second half.
Baltimore spent most of the offseason adding weapons to the Ravens’ offense to surround Jackson with as much talent as possible. This included signing Odell Beckham Jr. and drafting Zay Flowers in the first round. But one of the most significant additions was that of Todd Monken as OC.
While we can’t expect the offense to look like it did at the University of Georgia, I expect to see more spread formations, more wide receivers, and even some empty sets.
This starkly contrasts their 2022 metrics, where Baltimore was -4.8% in passing rate over expectation (10th highest), ran 11 personnel on first down 7% of the time, and lead the way with a 22-personnel rate of 45% and a 21-personnel rate of 29%.
Andrews was already one of the league leaders in slot snaps with 297 (No. 2), and this should positively impact him. I’m not expecting Baltimore to turn into a spread offense. But an increase in volume is something every fantasy manager would get behind.
Last season’s numbers are a fair baseline projection for Andrews, even though we know he can quickly surpass these numbers and is considered the primary target for Jackson by many.
An initial run of projections has Andrews as the TE2 on the season behind Travis Kelce, catching around 80 passes for nearly 1,000 yards with nine touchdowns. Andrews will have extra competition, but the chemistry between him and Jackson places Andrews in a prime position to flourish in 2022 as part of the new-look Ravens.
Should You Draft Mark Andrews This Year?
Andrews will cost a pretty penny on draft day, yet that should come as no massive surprise. With Kelce expected to go in the first round, managers can wait slightly longer on Andrews. While I expect him to be the second tight end of the board, early ADP suggests he’ll hover somewhere around the end of Round 2 and into Round 3.
I’m of the opinion that elite tight ends are one of the most significant advantages you can have in fantasy football. It’s always tempting to chase the late-round TE that will blow up that season (Chigoziem Okonkwo).
If you get a right, it’s an incredible value. However, it’s not always repeatable. Additionally, the odds of a late-round tight end receiving upper-echelon volume consistently are doubtful.
Andrews is one of the few tight ends that not only receives volume at one of the highest rates on his team but also plays off-line and brings significant touchdown upside.
Although there is a bit of an opportunity cost associated with Andrews, as he is in a prime area of the draft loaded with talent, the depth of the wide receiver position is something you can capitalize on with Andrews already on your roster.
Andrews is a set-it-and-forget-it type of player who — barring injury or a bye week — will never come out of your starting lineup while giving you an advantage over 90% of the people in your league. Regardless of where he goes, that’s as much as you can ask for in a fantasy draft pick.