One of the most consistent players at his position, Baltimore Ravens TE Mark Andrews brings week-winning upside to any fantasy football team. While his ADP is also one of the highest, it’s hard to find any other TEs in fantasy with more optimistic outlooks than Andrews.
Mark Andrews’ fantasy outlook for 2021
For the last two years, Andrews has been the primary target of Lamar Jackson and the player who makes the Ravens’ passing game tick. Since 2019, Andrews has hauled in 122 receptions on 186 targets for 1,553 yards and 17 touchdowns. He ended 2019 as the TE5 (13.8 ppg) and 2020 as the TE6 (12.2 ppg).
The astonishing thing is that people feel burned by Andrews. That last season was a “down year.” Now, don’t get me wrong, I get it to an extent. Andrews was one of the highest-drafted TEs last season (42.4 ADP), and where there were highs, there were also lows.
There were five weeks where Andrews could have cost you a win with TE21, TE23, TE30, TE31, and TE36 finishes. That is part of the nature of a tight end who does not score his points like George Kittle, T.J. Hockenson, or Darren Waller. Andrews is a comparatively lower-volume TE who is somewhat touchdown-dependent. However, those can come in bunches, and when they do, lookout.
Andrews was a TE1 in eight of his 14 games which was the third-highest percentage last season (57.1%). Of those weeks, he was a top-five TE six times, with four finishes inside the top three. If not for two games missed due to NFL protocols, Andrews likely would have been the TE3.
He is one of the few elite tight ends with the fantasy outlook in 2021 that can win you a week on their own. That makes Andrews one of the most valuable players in fantasy football.
Mark Andrews’ fantasy projection
Andrews has benefited from playing alongside one of the worst groups of receivers in the league. Sure, that might be harsh, but Marquise Brown is not an ideal WR1. Furthermore, when your second option is Willie Snead, that’s an issue.
The Ravens were well aware of this and made it a point to address the unit during the offseason. Thus, they completely overhauled the position. During free agency, they signed Sammy Watkins. Then in the NFL Draft, they selected Rashod Bateman in the first round and Tylan Wallace in Round 4.
Of the two, Bateman is the player to focus on, and his potential impacts Andrews.
As mentioned, Andrews’ fantasy value comes from his usage in the red zone and touchdown ability. In 2020, he saw 16 targets inside the red zone, including 9 inside the 5-yard line. He converted those opportunities into 4 of his 7 touchdowns. If anyone could disrupt this, it would be Bateman, as he projects to be a legitimate “X” receiver and red-zone threat.
On an offense that does not win through the air (32nd in attempts), every target is crucial. I still believe Andrews will lead the Ravens in targets in 2021, but he will have more competition inside the red zone.
A conservative projection for Andrews in 2021 would be just over 100 targets with 70 receptions, 875 yards, and 6 touchdowns.
Mark Andrews’ fantasy ADP
According to Sleeper, Andrews is currently being selected at an ADP of 47.3 in PPR formats. According to Fleaflicker, his ADP is 52.8. While in NFC (a high-stakes fantasy platform), Andrews is the TE4 with a 65.6 ADP.
Should you draft Andrews in 2021?
Whether or not you want to draft Andrews comes down to how you like to construct your roster and scoring format. If you are in a full PPR fantasy league, players like Hockenson, Kittle, or Waller will make more sense based on their volume. Each TE is likely to see well over 115 targets and is the centerpiece of their respective offenses. For example, Hockenson could end the season as a top-five tight end but may only have a week or two inside the top three.
If you are in 0.5 PPR or look for the high-upside players at TE, Andrews makes perfect sense and is who I would target, especially at his ADP. He is in the same tier with Kyle Pitts, but the difference is Andrews has proven it time and time again.
In 2021, I am going all-in on one of the elite tight ends (Kelce, Kittle, Waller, Hockenson, Andrews, or Pitts). I believe the opportunity cost is more than worth it for the weekly positional advantage at TE. Even with the added options in the Ravens’ passing game, Andrews is the player Jackson will target first. If I can walk out of every draft with Andrews on my team, I feel like an instant contender in 2021.
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Tommy Garrett is a writer for Pro Football Network covering the NFL and fantasy football and a member of the FSWA (Fantasy Sports Writers Association). You can read more of his work here and follow him at @TommygarrettPFN on Twitter.