New York Giants WR Malik Nabers is going to put your feet to the fire when it comes to how you evaluate players – are you a “talent first” or “situation first” person?
It’s slightly more complicated than that, but the root of the analysis around this impressive rookie’s 2024 fantasy football outlook is quite simple: can he overcome his situation?
Malik Nabers’ 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- PPR Fantasy Points: 234 (157 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 77
- Receiving Yards: 1,164
- Receiving TDs: 7
Every Malik Nabers TD from 2023: pic.twitter.com/r79WBTTU9A
— Austin Abbott (@AustinAbbottFF) July 1, 2024
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 16. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Nabers This Year?
Did you know that Darius Slayton has led the Giants in receiving yards in four of the past five seasons and that in exactly zero of those campaigns, a Giants WR reached 775 receiving yards?
Nabers was brought in with the sixth-overall pick in April to help rectify that embarrassing note, and he very well could do it. But will he take the league by storm from Day 1?
During his final two seasons at LSU, Nabers’ average season looks a lot like our current 2024 projection:
- Catches: 80.5
- Receiving yards: 1,293
- Receiving TDs: 8.5
He’s being valued over Zay Flowers (a second-year receiver in one of the most potent offenses in the league) and Amari Cooper (the clear-cut WR1 for a team that has plenty of upside at the quarterback position). Nabers’ price point is approaching that of DeVonta Smith, something I’d have a hard time swallowing given the annual floor that Smith has proven to have.
I’m playing a little fast and loose with the data there, as those numbers came in 13.5 games per season and the hope is that he is on the field for all 17 this season. That said, Nabers is going to have to avoid any sort of learning curve to pay off his ADP as a top-50 player and trending in the direction of a top-20 receiver.
LSU WRs, Starts to NFL Careers
- Odell Beckham Jr.: three straight games under 45 yards
- Justin Jefferson: No more than five targets in four of his first five games
- Ja’Marr Chase: 11 catches through three weeks (albeit very productive)
If you’re spending a fourth-round pick on Nabers, understand the risk you’re taking. My podcast co-host Derek Tate is as good with prospects as anyone and he is in on him, so it’s a reasonable take. That said, if you go that direction, you’re committing to starting him – taking the good with the bad.
That’s not how I usually construct my redraft teams. I wish you the best of luck if you draft this talented rookie, I just won’t be joining you on Sundays in pulling for him. You can find me on the Brian Thomas Jr. bandwagon when it comes to rookie receivers, a talented option who is walking into a more favorable role and goes 60+ picks after Nabers usually comes off the board.
Jason Katz’s Fantasy Insight on Malik Nabers
There’s a very real chance Nabers can push a 30% target share as a rookie. Since volume is king, it will be very difficult for Nabers to fail.
On the flip side, what is Nabers’ ceiling? Talent-wise, he can be a top-five wide receiver. However, that’s probably not in the cards with Daniel Jones — and, eventually, Drew Lock when Jones inevitably gets benched — at quarterback.
Whether you take the shot on Nabers comes down to your fantasy philosophy. Nabers is going above some very established guys. However, they’re mostly guys with known ceilings, guys who don’t necessarily have that WR1 upside. The other WRs are safer picks.
Nabers is the unknown. He could certainly flop. We’ve seen what poor quarterback play and offensive situations can do to talented rookies like Drake London, Garrett Wilson, and Jordan Addison post-Kirk Cousins. Nabers could suffer a similar fate and end up being a middling WR3.
On the other hand, Nabers could see competent QB play, enough to allow his talent to shine through, and exceed his ADP.
