After spending his first six seasons in the NFL with the Los Angeles Rams, RB Malcolm Brown heads into the 2021 season with the Miami Dolphins. Having never been the focal point of a backfield, could this change for him in 2021? What is the outlook for Malcolm Brown in 2021 for fantasy football, and is he a potential value at his ADP?
Malcolm Brown’s fantasy outlook for 2021
While everyone waited on a big-name signing to shake up Miami’s backfield, it feels that many have forgotten that Malcolm Brown was added during free agency. Heading into his seventh year, Brown signed a one-year, $1.75 million contract.
Brown is coming off a career season, compiling 101 rushes for 419 yards and 5 TDs while splitting time with Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson. He also led the backfield in receiving, with 33 targets, 23 receptions, and 162 yards. Unfortunately for fantasy, three-way splits are never a good thing.
Brown ended 2020 as the RB43 in PPR and 57th in points per game (6.8). While he did have three games as an RB2 or better (18.7%), nine games were outside the top 48. Now, Brown finds himself in the middle of a mix for carries once again, with Myles Gaskin, Salvon Ahmed, and seventh-round selection Gerrid Doaks.
Gaskin is coming off a successful year by all accounts, given the expectation heading into 2020. The question is, how does Brown fit into the offense? Head coach Brian Flores seems open to using Brown in a myriad of ways, stating he is confident in Brown handling “a variety of roles…short-yardage, third down, [and] goal line.”
As all reports suggest, Gaskin should be the lead back, with Brown assuming the RB2 role on the Dolphins’ depth chart. While he could see around 30% of the opportunities, Brown’s impact for his team will likely be higher than his fantasy outlook in 2021.
Fantasy projection
Since entering the NFL, Brown has played in 70 games. He has scored double-digit fantasy points (PPR) only seven times, with four of those coming last season. He is a career role player.
Gaskin is fresh off a season where he averaged 18.3 touches per game, ninth amongst RBs and more than Alvin Kamara (18.0). Across his 10 games, he averaged 4.7 targets per game and was on pace for nearly 1,000 yards. The Dolphins had every opportunity imaginable to replace him — but they didn’t. To me, that is the louder vote of confidence than any “coachspeak” could ever be.
There is actually room on Miami’s offense for Brown to impact it negatively towards Gaskin’s value. They enter 2021 with the ninth-highest vacated carry percentage at 33.8% (145 carries). Although I expect to see Gaskin around 200-210 carries, a 25% split for Brown could have him in the 85-90 range in 2021.
I believe Gaskin ends relatively unscathed, with Brown seeing around 85-90 carries, 25 receptions, about 540 total yards, and 4 to 5 touchdowns.
Malcolm Brown’s ADP
According to Sleeper, Brown is currently being selected with an ADP of 221.7 in PPR. However, according to Fleaflicker, Brown has a 210.7 ADP.
Should you draft Brown in 2021 for fantasy?
I find the difference in values fascinating. Where fantasy managers on Sleeper view Brown as the RB3 on the Dolphins, over on NFC, Brown is the sixth option behind Doaks and Lynn Bowden Jr.
While different, they each point to a similar conclusion: Brown is not a drafted fantasy player in 2021. I tend to agree. Even if Gaskin were to miss time, the backfield split would be so messy that you would want to stay away, at least for the first week until we see the Dolphins tip their hand with carry distribution.
Even as a handcuff or zero-RB draft strategy, Brown should be left on waivers when fantasy drafts conclude in 2021.