Mack Hollins is an intriguing Week 4 waiver option for fantasy football managers after his monster performance last week. The big question now is whether fantasy managers should trust what we saw last week, or is Hollins a regression candidate coming off the best fantasy output of his career so far?
Can fantasy managers trust Mack Hollins as a Week 4 waiver wire add?
Entering this season, Hollins’ stat line read 750 receiving yards, six touchdowns, and 56 receptions from 98 targets. In the past two weeks, he has had 224 receiving yards and a touchdown on 13 receptions from 18 targets. In two weeks, he has had around 30 percent of the production he had entering the year. That is certainly intriguing, especially considering he has played more than 90 percent of the offensive snaps this season for the Las Vegas Raiders.
His snap share rose in Week 3 with Hunter Renfrow out, but it was already north of 85 percent through the first two weeks. Therefore, it was not like he suddenly saw a significant increase in playing time in Week 3 compared to the rest of the season. Hollins has consistently been on the field for this offense throughout the first three weeks.
While he only had one target in Week 1, Hollins ran a lot of routes and was open a handful of times. However, in that first game, Derek Carr was locked onto Davante Adams, forcing balls to him when other players were open. Since then, we have seen a significantly better balance in the offense, and Hollins has been the biggest beneficiary. His usage in Week 3 certainly benefitted from the absence of Renfrow. Nonetheless, we are talking about two or three targets as opposed to five or six.
Through the first three weeks on a per-game basis, Hollins is the WR22 in all three main scoring formats — non-PPR, half-PPR, and full-PPR. On a single-game basis, he finished just outside the top 36 WRs in Week 2 before finishing as a top-two option in Week 3.
Where should Hollins sit in the Week 4 waiver wire priority?
The contrast in the three performances in terms of fantasy output from Hollins makes him a strange player to try and judge. However, when you watch the film, he is much closer to the value of the guy we saw in Week 2 and Week 3 than the inconsequential option we saw in Week 1.
Even with a fully healthy stable of receivers in Week 2, Hollins saw eight targets and finished just outside the top 36. That is a very telling representation of his week-to-week value when all the other three main weapons are active — Adams, Renfrow, and Darren Waller. However, we saw the upside he possesses if any of them are missing in Week 3.
What does it all mean? Hollins is a solid waiver wire add in Week 4, but he’s likely not someone you should add to start in Week 4. That will depend on the situation with Renfrow and his concussion. But we may not get an update on that until Wednesday when the Raiders return to practice. On a weekly basis, Hollins is a fringe flex option with flex starting potential once we reach bye weeks and fantasy rosters start losing options. Additionally, he is a player that is one injury away from being a regular weekly flex play, which certainly has value.
Where Hollins sits in terms of the waiver priority depends on your needs. If you are looking to bolster your bench with high-upside throughout the season, Hollins is my second-highest priority behind Romeo Doubs. However, if you need a Week 4 or Week 5 starting option, Hollins falls behind Russell Gage and Greg Dortch. However, regardless of need, Hollins sits comfortably above K.J. Osborn, Josh Reynolds, and DeVante Parker regarding waiver priority. He is a player that I am looking to spend between 5-7 percent of my available FAAB (or waiver priority) on in the Week 4 waiver wire.