Mac Jones appears to have been named the starter in New England, significantly increasing his fantasy football outlook for the 2021 season. Should fantasy managers take a shot on Jones now he appears to be the starter, and is he a value at his current ADP in fantasy drafts?
Update 8/31: Cam Newton has been released by the Patriots, indicating Jones will start Week 1. His fantasy value sees a significant boost due to this news.
Mac Jones’ fantasy outlook for 2021
None of us had a clue what Bill Belichick would do when it came to the New England Patriots’ quarterback situation between Mac Jones and Cam Newton. Anyone who says they knew what is going to happen was likely guessing. But here is what I do know. Jones is better than people have given him credit for and has displayed it all summer.
As a full-time starter in 2020, Jones completed 77.4% of his passes for 4,500 yards and 41 touchdowns to just 4 interceptions while playing against the best of the best the SEC and nation had to offer. Does it help when you have Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, John Metchie III, and Najee Harris? Of course, but lesser QBs would not be able to take advantage of this talent.
Jones’ accuracy is arguably his greatest trait. He will carve up a defense on the short-to-intermediate route, and there have been tons of QBs who have thrived with this style of play. The next skill of Jones that sets him apart is his decision-making, especially in small windows. You can be a statue in the pocket if you are intelligent and accurate.
The problem is Jones is the antithesis of everything Newton is and what the Patriots have spent the last two seasons designing an offense around.
Fantasy projection
As a whole, the Patriots will be a better team in 2021, especially on offense.
From 2015 to 2019, New England averaged 27.8 points on 66.8 plays per game. Moreover, the Patriots averaged 37 passing attempts for 269.2 yards. In 2020, points (20.4 ppg) and plays (61.2 per game) fell, and passing slid to just 27.5 attempts and 180.6 yards. It could have been even uglier if not for the fourth-best rushing offense (31.4 attempts for 146.6 yards).
If we think about both Newton’s and Jones’ skill sets, Jones is the one who more closely resembles the playstyle the Patriots have had success with for nearly two decades with Tom Brady.
I believe it is a matter of when, not if, we see Jones under center this season. Projections are already an exercise in making data-driven educated guesses, but this is a variable that we have no precedent for or real insight. The way I have constructed my projections, I have Jones taking over in Week 15 against the Indianapolis Colts.
The Patriots have a bye week in Week 14, which would allow them an extra week for install. Plus, they would know where they stand in the playoff race. Assuming they are on the outside looking in, the end of the 2021 season is, in actuality, the beginning of the 2022 season.
My current projections have Jones slated for around 550 attempts, throwing for approximately 4,000 yards with 20 touchdowns to 10 interceptions.
Mac Jones’ ADP
Prior to Newton’s release, Jones had an ADP on Sleeper of 241.9 in half PPR formats. In superflex formats, where quarterbacks have an increased value, he rises to 158.5. Similarly, on NFC (a high-stakes fantasy platform), Jones has an ADP of 249.3. On Fleaflicker, he has an ADP of 263.
That ADP is sure to rise following the news of Newton’s release. Initially, his ADP will likely rise a lot and perhaps above where it will eventually settle. Judging when he will be taken in the coming hours and days could be tough.
Should you draft Jones in 2021 for fantasy?
Newton and Jones had almost identical ADPs in fantasy drafts. We all expected a change to happen eventually. Newton was arguably the higher-ceiling player, but that does not mean Jones will not have value. His upside is limited by his lack of addition to the run game.
Jones can find success, and maybe more so than the popular opinion right now. However, Jones lacks the significant upside for fantasy in 2021 fantasy drafts. The problem will be judging where Jones’ ADP is no longer a value against his potential fantasy outlook for the upcoming season.