Green Bay Packers TE Luke Musgrave showed signs of breaking out in his rookie season, only to see it cut short due to injury. While he was out, Tucker Kraft showed similar signs. Heading into the 2024 season, is Musgrave the one fantasy football managers want?
Luke Musgrave’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
It’s rare to see rookie tight ends flourish. Yet, we saw a bunch of them play far better than expected in their NFL debut seasons last year.
Sam LaPorta having the single greatest rookie TE fantasy season of all time gets all the buzz, and deservedly so. However, Musgrave was on his way to being a worthy fantasy asset before his freak injury essentially ended his regular season.
Musgrave opened the season as Green Bay’s clear TE1, right away playing 75% of the snaps. For the next 10 weeks, he was regularly around a 70% snap share or better, including three games over 85%.
During that span, Musgrave only posted two games of double-digit fantasy points. However, watching the games, it could’ve been much more if not for some close calls that wound up not going his way.
Musgrave was a mighty impressive separator for a big tight end, ranking second in Next Gen Stats’ separation metric. Overall, though, he did struggle to command volume on a Packers offense that is pass-catcher-by-committee.
Between Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Christian, Watson, Dontayvion Wicks, Bo Melton, Musgrave, and Kraft, there are several players capable of catching passes. Jordan Love is fine to throw to any and all of them. It’s great for the Packers, but terrible for fantasy.
In Week 11, Musgrave sustained a lacerated kidney that cost him the next six games. During his absence, Kraft established himself as a capable starting tight end, hitting double-digit fantasy points in every game from Weeks 14-17.
Upon Musgrave’s return, Kraft remained the clear TE1. Although his snap share wasn’t quite at the 90% level it was when Musgrave was out, he was still over 70% in both of the Packers’ playoff games. Does that mean it will be that way in a new season? Of course not.
Therein lies the challenge for fantasy managers. Both Musgrave and Kraft have proven worthy of being on fantasy rosters and potentially starting in lineups…but only without the other one playing a meaningful role.
As things currently stand, fantasy managers strongly believe Musgrave will be the guy to roster. His ADP sits at TE17, while Kraft is at TE32.
I’m not so sure. I have Musgrave at TE17 and Kraft at TE23 — the truth is, I do not know.
Anyone below roughly TE15 is someone I’m not looking to draft. Given the way the Packers deploy their wide receivers, I’m not compelled to expect anything different at tight end.
This is likely to be a split role. Given the plethora of useful pass catchers in Green Bay’s offense, a split-role TE is not exactly someone we should be clamoring to roster in fantasy.
If one of Musgrave or Kraft gets hurt, I’ll be interested in the other one. For now, though, neither is worth selecting in fantasy drafts.