The Los Angeles Rams look to be peaking at just the right time, absolutely torching the Minnesota Vikings in the Wild Card Round. Now they have a battle with one of the more balanced teams in the league, the Philadelphia Eagles.
The Eagles have benefitted greatly from coordinator changes this season and their defense is finally matching the offensive output. This could mean dangerous things for Philadelphia, a team that has been here before.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Philadelphia Eagles Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
Eagles -6 - Moneyline
Eagles (-290); Rams (+235) - Over/Under
42.5 total points - Game Time
3:00 p.m ET - Location
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
Rams vs. Eagles Preview and Prediction
According to TruMedia, the Rams ranked 22nd in defensive rush EPA (expected points added), 27th in yards per rush allowed, and 23rd in defensive rushing success rate. Not quite good against the run, but luckily, they rank 12th in explosive rushing rate allowed. This will be huge against a Philly offense that ranks second in explosive rushes this season.
Unfortunately, the Rams do struggle against explosive passing plays, ranking 28th. That is something the Eagles do well, albeit not as good as their rushing explosives (10th). In the first matchup between these two, the Eagles absolutely bludgeoned them on the ground.
Saquon Barkley finished with 26 runs for 255 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. A majority of these yards came in the second half, with his 70-yard third-quarter run for a touchdown being what started the explosion.
Part of what makes this Philadelphia run game so dominant is a combination of the offensive line, Barkley, and Jalen Hurts. Hurts’ threat in the run game makes it that much harder to stop Barkley or stack the box. The Eagles rank third in rushing EPA this season, behind only the Baltimore Ravens and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Against stacked boxes (eight or more defenders), they still rank fifth in EPA.
MORE: Rams vs. Eagles Player Props and Best Bets
In the game against the Rams, the Eagles averaged 2.82 yards per rush before contact, which is 0.66 yards more than their average and the highest mark in the NFL. They averaged an absurd 4.16 yards per rush after contact, which is again the top mark in the NFL. In terms of individual games this season, that performance ranks 44th of 544 games and it’s their third-best.
The 70-yard run to start the third quarter is ultimately what broke the Rams’ back, with it being a one-score game before that. It will be important for the Eagles to dominate the run game, but they have an advantage in passing as well.
Under pressure, Philly ranks 25th in EPA per play versus third when not pressured. Against the blitz, they rank fourth. The Rams’ defense blitzes at a below-league-average rate (23rd) but ranked 17th in pressure rate. With only an average pressure rate and a ranking of 23rd in EPA when getting pressure, the Rams don’t particularly pose a threat against Philadelphia’s weakness.
The most important matchup will be the Eagles’ secondary versus the Rams’ pass game. The Rams aren’t particularly explosive, ranking 17th in passes of 20 or more yards per game. However, they are methodical, ranking 14th in pass EPA and seventh in passing success rate. They struggle with pressure, ranking 23rd in EPA when under pressure versus eighth without.
This is exacerbated by the fact that Stafford cannot scramble. The Rams are dead last in the league with only four scrambles on the season. This isn’t to say he can’t play out of structure, with the Rams ranking eighth in EPA outside of the pocket. This will be important against an Eagles defense that ranks seventh in pressure generated.
Stafford and the Rams are also surgical against the blitz, ranking ninth in EPA in those situations. Luckily for the Eagles, they blitz the second-least in the entire league. The Rams are much better against zone coverage than against man (19th vs. 10th). This doesn’t make a difference to the Eagles’ defense which ranks first in defensive EPA against man and second against zone.
Overall, I would love to buy into the Rams hype. L.A. is a team that is incredibly dangerous offensively when it gets rolling. Unfortunately, the Eagles just match up really well against the Rams in pretty much all aspects of the game. While the young Rams defensive line has been super effective as of late, they will be playing arguably the best offensive tackle duo in the league.
My pick: Eagles -6 (-115)
