The Los Angeles Rams face the Arizona Cardinals in a battle for NFC West supremacy. There is so much to look forward to in Rams vs. Cardinals on Sunday afternoon. Whichever team wins will lead arguably the most talented division in football, rivaled only by the AFC West. Perhaps the West Coast really is the “Best Coast.”
Los Angeles Rams offense vs. Arizona Cardinals defense
Los Angeles’ offense has been unbelievably efficient through three weeks in 2021. They’re currently the most efficient in the league, and if they can hang onto their current efficiency rating, they’d be the most impressive offense since 2011.
The Cardinals’ defense currently ranks in the top 10, but they reaped the rewards of a lifeless Titans offense in Week 1 and a terrible Jacksonville squad in Week 3.
Matthew Stafford vs. Cardinals defense
Matthew Stafford is currently producing the second-most expected points added per play in the NFL. The Pro Football Network’s Offensive Value Metric is a way to try and quantify how responsible the individual is for their statistical production and how much their surroundings affect that.
Stafford is currently 14th in OVM. Now, before Rams fans come in with their torches and pitchforks, it’s essential to look at a few other metrics that could explain why he’s not gracing the top of the OVM list.
He hasn’t been as accurate as other quarterbacks compared to the expectation. Next Gen Stats ranks him 21st in CPOE, and Ben Baldwin’s site ranks him 19th. The tape shows the same thing. He’s been terrific, but his surroundings help him a lot.
Defensively, it might be a struggle for this Arizona defense to slow Stafford down too much unless Chandler Jones has another Herculean effort as he had against the Titans. This Rams offense is outstanding, and Stafford will only become more comfortable as the season wears on.
Advantage: Rams
Rams weapons vs. Cardinals defensive backs
This one isn’t particularly close. It shouldn’t be a surprise to see the result here is a Los Angeles landslide. Robert Woods has been one of the most consistent receivers in the NFL since he arrived in LA in 2017. Cooper Kupp has been one of the most dynamic receivers through three weeks. He leads the league in receptions (25), yards (367), and touchdowns (5). He’s also averaging 7 yards after the catch.
Van Jefferson, Tyler Higbee, and DeSean Jackson are all dangerous in their own ways as well. Jefferson is averaging roughly 20 yards per reception, and Jackson is averaging nearly 30!
Budda Baker and Byron Murphy are both stud defensive backs, but there are a lot of questions outside of those two players. Despite that, they possess the third-best passing defense, according to Football Outsiders. Can 33-year-old Robert Alford and rookie fourth-round pick Marco Wilson keep up their adequate level of play?
Against this group of weapons, I don’t believe so.
Advantage: Rams
Rams offensive line vs. Cardinals front seven
Chandler Jones and J.J. Watt are a dynamic duo. However, despite Andrew Whitworth’s AARP status, he and the rest of the Rams’ offensive line is playing some dominant football, for the most part. Stafford has been sacked only 3 times through three games.
The Cardinals’ front seven could definitely change that. However, they’re a bit of a contradiction. Because there aren’t options up and down the line, they’re forced to get lucky early in a rep by one player that destroys the play. Despite being fifth in the league at generating sacks, they’re tied for the fifth-lowest hurry rate. That’s not a great mark, considering they’re fourth in blitz rate.
This looks like an advantage for the Rams, but Jones can wreck a game all by himself. With Watt healthy, it’s easy to see how they could cause a few issues for the Rams.
Advantage: Push
Los Angeles Rams defense vs. Arizona Cardinals offense
The Rams lost a few key defensive contributors after last season. John Johnson III and Troy Hill went to Cleveland, and defensive coordinator Brandon Staley is the head coach of the Chargers. It’s shown already through three games, as the hopeless Chicago offense and limping Colts unit both had better days than they should have against the Rams.
Arizona’s offense has been good, ranking in the top 10 in both passing and rushing efficiency so far through three weeks. They haven’t necessarily faced a murderer’s row of defenses so far. Still, their offensive weapons are plentiful, and Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray appear more willing to work over the middle in 2021.
Kyler Murray vs. Rams defense
Murray against any entity other than himself is a mismatch. He possesses the shiftiness of the most elusive slot receiver in football and the arm talent to match darned near anybody in the league.
The Rams’ defense has one of the best defenders of all time, Aaron Donald, anchoring the defensive interior. They also have the best cornerback in the league locking down opposing receivers in Jalen Ramsey.
This is a heavyweight bout, but Murray’s lightning-quick feet allow him to create at will through the air. The scary thing is, we haven’t even seen the explosive run game we all know he possesses.
Advantage: Cardinals
Cardinals weapons vs. Rams defensive backs
DeAndre Hopkins vs. Jalen Ramsey is the stuff dreams are made of. It’s always fun to see two of the best in the game do their thing. The Rams also have Darious Williams to help thwart the efforts of a second option.
But the Cardinals have four options at receiver alone. A.J. Green appears to have his head back on the same planet after looking completely checked out in 2021. Having Christian Kirk and Rondale Moore is unfair for opposing defenses.
It’s already impossible to cover in the NFL, given the rules in place to help the offense. The Rams will need a massive effort from their pass rush to make Murray uncomfortable and force him into mistakes.
Advantage: Cardinals
Cardinals offensive line vs. Rams front seven
And here is where that work gets done. Leonard Floyd and Aaron Donald must take it to Arizona’s offensive line. I expect those two to align on the offense’s right side more often than not in an attempt to take advantage of Josh Jones and Justin Murray. When we simply look at the line without taking into account Murray’s ability to create, it’s hard to argue the Cardinals’ offensive line can hold a candle to Donald and Floyd.
With the Rams’ propensity to run two-high safety looks, it’s difficult to account for enough gaps to effectively stop the run. So far, they’re 22nd in rush defense from an efficiency standpoint. And even though their linebackers are playing well, they can only do so much being a gap down.
Advantage: Push
Betting line and game prediction
The Rams are currently a 4.5-point favorite against the Cardinals. As much as I enjoy this Arizona team and Kingsbury, I still have questions about him as an NFL head coach. I do not have those same questions for McVay.
I think on a weekly basis, Murray has the ability to be a catalyst. He has the talent to put the Cardinals on his back and carry them to a win, along with the help of his weapons.
I just haven’t seen the Cardinals face any of the NFL’s elite teams. We saw the Rams dominate the defending Super Bowl champions in Week 3. There’s always the opportunity for a letdown game after one like that, but this is a divisional opponent that is also undefeated.
Trends may be broken, but Kingsbury has yet to beat the McVay-led Rams. I don’t think they do this week, either.
Prediction: Rams 31, Cardinals 24