Two months ago, the Los Angeles Rams’ first-place finish in the division seemed almost inconceivable. However, they’ve staged a remarkable rally since their bye week and now have a position where they can dictate terms.
With their victory over the New York Jets in Week 16 — and the Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers, and Arizona Cardinals losing — the Rams potentially need just one more win to clinch the NFC West.
Let’s look at the Rams’ current playoff picture and their playoff scenarios.
What Is the Los Angeles Rams’ Current Playoff Picture?
The Rams (9-6) are one game up on the Seahawks (8-7) following all the action in Week 16. The Rams control their own destiny in the NFC West, while the Seahawks do not.
Behind them are the Cardinals (7-8) in third. Because the Rams won and Arizona lost in Week 16, they have been eliminated from the playoff race. The 49ers (6-8) are currently last in the division, and they, too, have been eliminated from the playoff race.
It’s now a two-team race between Los Angeles and Seattle in the NFC West.
What Are the Rams’ Playoff Scenarios and Chances?
With all three NFC West teams losing in Week 16, the Rams control their own destiny. Any scenario in which Los Angeles gets to 10.5 wins will give them the NFC West title and a home playoff game on Wild Card Weekend.
The Rams will have a chance to clinch in Week 17, with the most straightforward path being they win and the Seahawks fail to. That will leave Seattle two games back with one to play.
If both win, the Rams would move to 10-6, and the Seahawks would move to 9-7 with a Week 18 showdown looming. The Rams currently hold a slight advantage in the tiebreakers thanks to a superior strength of victory by nine wins entering Monday Night Football.
If the Rams lose in Week 17 and the Seahawks win, it will be a winner-take-all game in Week 18. If both teams lose, it will also be a winner-take-all game.
If they don’t win the NFC West, there’s still a chance the Rams can secure the Wild Card spot with nine wins, but it’s complicated and requires several things to go their way. If that remains possible after this week, then it will potentially be much less convoluted entering Week 17, and those scenarios will be laid out accordingly.
For the Seahawks to win the NFC West, they essentially need to finish at least half a game ahead of the Rams or get a relatively big swing in SOV. That means the Rams ideally need to fail to beat the Cardinals in Week 17, the Seahawks need to beat the Bears, and then the Seahawks need to beat the Rams in Week 18.
That would put the Rams at 9-8 or 9-7-1 and the Seahawks at 10-7, thus a clear lead over the Rams.
Head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture and the current NFL postseason bracket.
