The Los Angeles Rams fantasy preview breaks down what you can expect from their backfield moving forward, while the Green Bay Packers fantasy outlook gauges the value of their pass catchers with Jordan Love underperforming.
Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers
- Spread: Packers -3
- Total: 40
- Rams implied points: 18.5
- Packers implied points: 21.5
Quarterbacks
Matthew Stafford: Just because you have a viable fantasy receiver(s) doesn’t mean you’re a fantasy-worthy QB. Stafford has had an elite target-earner, if not two, by his side all season long, and yet, he still hasn’t posted a finish better than QB14.
Stafford sprained his thumb last week, and his status is TBD. Frankly, that shouldn’t matter to you. We have two months of sample size that suggests that a healthy Stafford doesn’t have access to much of a ceiling.
Jordan Love: If you’re simply sifting through fantasy finishes, the four top 12s on Love’s résumé look reasonable. However, there’s been a lot of smoke and mirrors involved with those numbers. From rushing scores to massive YAC plays to passes so off-target they are caught by a different player altogether, Love’s production has been fluky at best.
There’s a path to success here, given that the Rams own the fifth-highest opponent aDOT and the Packers have burners out wide, but the floor is simply too low for Love to crack my top 15.
Running Backs
Darrell Henderson: A 32-yard catch last week in Dallas saved Henderson from a disaster of a performance (14 touches for 53 yards without that touch), but a 23-point loss resulted in limited commitment to the ground game for Los Angeles.
Neither Rams running back had a carry gain more than 10 yards last week, and I don’t think we see an uptick in splash plays anytime soon. Henderson continues to own the slight touch edge over Royce Freeman, and while he wasn’t the one to punch in the short touchdown, I’m inclined to trust the process of Henderson getting them into that spot.
I have Henderson ranked at the top of my Flex options (in the Zack Moss range) while Freeman checks in a handful of spots lower, sandwiched by Steelers running backs.
MORE: Week 9 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet
Royce Freeman: With 110 yards on 21 carries since joining the Rams, he’s shown some juice on the ground. He was able to cash in his goal-line carry in Dallas last week (33-29 snap edge over Henderson) to get you to double-digit fantasy points.
I’m encouraged by the efficiency on the ground, though zero targets is a concern. The upside is capped by his usage, but I think he can bail you out in a pinch, given that Los Angeles likely leans more on the run game this week.
Aaron Jones: Not only is 300 a good movie and a perfect bowling score, it’s also the number of days (come game day) that have passed since the last time Jones got his hands on the ball more than 11 times.
He has exactly 11 touches in both of his games since returning from a hamstring injury. The team continues to show little confidence in his health – fantasy managers need to follow their lead. I think Jones is a superior player to Rachaad White and Chuba Hubbard, but in the scope of fantasy football Week 9, my confidence in the volume of those two trumps any per-touch upside Jones holds.
He’s a low-end RB2 at best this week. Part of that is due to injuries and bye weeks, leaving the position something of a wasteland.
AJ Dillon: Even with a minor injury suffered during the game, Dillon held the edge in snaps (36-34) and routes (21-18) over Jones last week against the Minnesota Vikings. He managed to double his season catch total last week. Since Jones returned, Dillon has 75 receiving yards (first six weeks: 25 receiving yards), giving him a path to fantasy value despite his continued inefficiencies on the ground (3.1 ypc).
The Rams are an average run defense, and this is a split committee on a below-average offense. Dillon’s floor is more concerning than his ceiling is encouraging, leading me to bench him and look elsewhere.
Wide Receivers
Cooper Kupp: Two up and two down for Kupp since returning to action. If I told you that was going to be the case, you probably would have been fine with it.
“Knocking some rust off. That’s OK by me. Give me Kupp at full speed for the final month of the fantasy season.”
MORE: Cooper Kupp Fantasy Value — Should You Buy the Star Rams WR?
I’m assuming that would have been your response if I told you that Kupp would have 21 catches on 38 targets for 316 yards and a score in his first month back in action. Does that sound right?
But we are human. We are programmed to react to what we’ve seen most recently, and in this case, Kupp has been a mess. Over the past two weeks, he has caught just six of 17 targets for 50 yards with multiple drops. It hasn’t been pretty, but we are just getting past what would have been Kupp’s ramping-up period.
Remember when A.J. Brown had some slow games to open the season?
Relax, people. Kupp is going to be just fine and should be considered a WR1 moving forward. If the Stafford injury ends up being more serious than let on, Kupp’s stock would dip but not nearly enough to get him out of lineups.
Puka Nacua: The rookie has seen at least seven targets in every game this season, but he has seen his consistency dip since Kupp returned — per the Week 9 Cheat Sheet:
- Week 5: 16.6 fantasy points
- Week 6: 4.6 fantasy points
- Week 7: 19.4 fantasy points
- Week 8: 5.8 fantasy points
The usage has me remaining confident in Nacua’s long-term outlook, but we do need to start building in more of a floor than we had earlier this season.
In Week 7 against the Packers, the Denver Broncos’ top receiving tandem (Sutton and Jeudy) caught all 11 of their targets. Last week, the Vikings’ top duo caught 13 of 17 targets. Moral of the story — I trust the volume of both Kupp and Nacua to pay off top-20 value at the position this weekend.
Christian Watson: You drafted Watson as a starter this summer, and that’s looking like a mistake. That’s OK, everyone makes mistakes. The mistake that not everyone makes is the compounding of errors.
Watson has one finish better than WR34 this season and has yet to catch more than three passes in a game. For his career, the burner has only two games with more than four receptions. He simply hasn’t shown us the ability to produce volume on a consistent basis, and with Love struggling, why would we expect that to change any time soon?
MORE: Fantasy Week 9 WR Start/Sit
The raw athletic ability of Watson can be intoxicating, and Love’s willingness to take shots down the field makes this a tough call. With that said, until this Packers offense proves capable of consistently moving the ball, I’m not counting on it.
Watson is outside of my comfort zone for Flex plays in Week 9.
Romeo Doubs: Nothing in his advanced box score this season hints at anything special, but Doubs has a touchdown or 12+ targets in four of his past five games – that puts him in the running for WR1 in this offense.
Earning targets is a good place to start, but until the play under center improves, Doubs can’t be trusted near fantasy starting lineups. Case in point: he has three more targets over his past three games than Rashee Rice, yet his yardage total is four yards fewer than Rice’s worst game over that stretch.
Mahomes vs. Love is obviously not a fair fight, but you get the idea. Doubs might be a good player, but how much different is he than guys like Jahan Dotson? Play him at your own risk – he’s not a Flex option for me.
Jayden Reed: The team is looking to get Reed some reps (led their receiver corps in route participation last week at 87.8%), and you love to see that. He rewarded them in Week 8 against the Vikings with season-bests in catches (four) and yards (83). Even so, he’s still far too risky in this underwhelming offense to put much faith in, at least for redraft.
He carries second-round draft capital and has either a 30-yard catch or a score in six of seven games this season. There’s a lot to like in dynasty leagues if Green Bay can figure out the QB position.
Tight Ends
Tyler Higbee: It was good to see him catch five balls last week in Dallas (matching his total from his three games prior), but his 2023 box score is still sans a touchdown or a 50-yard game.
Once you enter the TE blob, there is no such thing as a “bad play” due to how little it takes to be relevant. But there are better darts to throw than wasting a roster spot on Higbee.
Luke Musgrave: Musgrave averaged 41.3 yards per game in Weeks 1-3, and that was with some chunk plays left on the field. We allowed ourselves to get excited about the TE circle of trust potentially expanding by one – and then Love regressed.
Since the hot start, Musgrave has been held under 35 yards in four straight games and still has yet to find the end zone. His lone big play came way back in Week 1 on a broken coverage, and even that play ended up producing less than it should have.
He might be an asset down the road, but he is not someone to worry about right now as you look to bandage your way through another week at the position.
Should You Start Darrell Henderson or Brian Robinson?
I think both of these backs have a reasonable role, but one of their teams is interested in running the ball, while the other insists on airing it early and often.
Brian Robinson doesn’t have more than 10 carries in four straight games, making him a touchdown-dependent option on an offense that doesn’t consistently get inside the 10-yard line. Not ideal.
I give Henderson the slight edge in per-touch production and have him projected for more attempts, making him a low-end RB2 for me this week and the answer in this spot.
Should You Start Christian Watson or Michael Thomas?
These are two very different receivers, so your matchup will play a part in this decision, but barring a big underdog spot, I want the floor that comes with Michael Thomas. Say what you will about Derek Carr, but the New Orleans Saints are throwing the ball plenty and Thomas is as good a bet for 7-10 points as there is.
Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!