The Los Angeles Rams‘ preview takes a look at their passing game’s fantasy football value, while the Baltimore Ravens‘ fantasy outlook is centered around how different their offense will look coming out of the bye.
Are you concerned about the weather in Baltimore today and how it could change your start/sit decisions? Check out our Week 14 Weather Report.
Los Angeles Rams at Baltimore Ravens
- Spread: Ravens -7
- Total: 43
- Rams implied points: 18
- Ravens implied points: 25
Quarterbacks
Matthew Stafford: Consecutive finishes in the top 10 are good to see, but the Ravens’ defense is the best in the league by most stats, and with them rested, there’s no reason to look Stafford’s way.
MORE: Fantasy News Tracker
What has changed over these past two weeks? Stafford’s aDOT is down more than a yard, and that can help elevate his floor — next week against the Commanders. We will cross that bridge when we get to it (earmark him as a streamer next week, no matter what happens this Sunday), but for Week 14, Stafford doesn’t matter.
Lamar Jackson: With just one finish better than QB14 since Week 7, Jackson’s fantasy managers have been frustrated with their star quarterback’s performance as of late. However, this offense continues to churn out yardage and points, and the fantasy numbers are going to come. Eventually … I hope.
On the bright side, Jackson’s completion percentage is up six percentage points from last season and easily on a career pace. I expect Baltimore to come out of their bye with creative schemes and put the versatile Jackson in a spot to peak at the right time.
A few statement games and Jackson could not only add hardware to your trophy shelf, but he could be taking home another MVP award. He remains a top-eight QB for me due to his unique upside and the benefit of the late bye week.
Running Backs
Kyren Williams: Most weeks, the scoring ways of Williams (10 TDs in eight games) crack my top 10, but a matchup against the third-best red-zone defense creates a little more hesitation on my behalf.
While he’s more of a high-end RB2 than a strong RB1 this week, Williams remains a fantasy starter in all formats. His role is nothing short of elite (it’s him, Zack Moss, and Christian McCaffrey), and that sort of usage creates a floor that is worth betting on.
Williams has at least 20 carries or six targets in six of his past seven games, which is enough to overcome any matchup.
Royce Freeman was on the field for four more snaps than me on Sunday and can safely be rostered in as many leagues as I am. Zero.
Gus Edwards: The analysis is easy when it comes to the Gus Bus, but the decision-making is far less straightforward.
- Average finish this season with TD: RB11
- Average finish this season without TD: RB40
Edwards has one finish this season from RB8-27; every other game has either been a bonafide fantasy superstar or a bust.
MORE: Should You Start Keaton Mitchell or Gus Edwards in Fantasy Football in Week 14?
This is the hardest type of player to roster. The Rams are a middle-of-the-pack defense when it comes to all red-zone numbers, so that doesn’t help us. I’m more out on Edwards than I’m in on him due to the crowded nature of the backfield, not to mention Jackson’s abilities and the short passing stylings of Todd Monken that serve as a supplement to the run game.
You’re more than likely playing Edwards (my RB21), and there’s nothing wrong with that, given how productive he can be around the goal line. It’s just important to go into this week (and every week, for that matter) with an understanding of the wide range of outcomes.
Keaton Mitchell: It’s OK to acknowledge the talent (20+ yards carry in four straight games) without investing in him. I think that’s right.
Mitchell doesn’t have a 10-carry or a three-target game on his résumé, usage that simply makes for a tough sell. If you’re swinging for the fences in a bid for an upset, feel free to roll the dice here, but outside of those unique situations, the undrafted rookie isn’t on my lineup radar this week.
Justice Hill: For the sake of covering every option in this backfield, Hill and his nine total touches over his past three games are well off of fantasy radars. It’s been more than a month since he finished as a top-40 producer at the position.
His impact in our game is taking food off the plate of his teammates, nothing that he holds individually.
Wide Receivers
Cooper Kupp: The former All-Pro hasn’t been a top-20 receiver since Week 6, but Kupp did get back to earning targets at a reasonable rate. He had eight targets in Week 13 after totaling just six looks in the two weeks prior.
Of course, those targets resulted in just 39 yards, but a touchdown saved the day. Kupp totaled 266 receiving yards in his first two games back after missing the first month — he has 166 yards in six games since.
Kupp is nothing more than a Flex play in this brutal matchup. My little optimism for him this week comes from a potentially favorable game script. He’s not a must-start, as I have him ranked behind Brandin Cooks and Jayden Reed. What a world.
Puka Nacua: The sprained AC joint that Nacua suffered last week may linger, but it’s not expected to be the type of injury that results in missed time. The rookie has seen at least seven targets in every single game this season, and while the opportunities remain there, the catch totals have dipped in a significant way.
Over his past five games, Nacua has caught just 19 passes — a serious decline from the 8.3 receptions that he averaged in the first seven weeks. I have him ranked over Kupp this week, checking in as a good Flex play more than the strong WR2 we thought he’d finish the season as.
Zay Flowers: A 37-yard touchdown run in Week 12 fueled a WR3 finish for Flowers. But while the fantasy points were there, the fact that he turned eight targets into just 25 yards in a cushy spot against the Chargers is concerning.
The rookie hasn’t reached 45 receiving yards in four of his past five games and has only proven viable in perfect spots. Weeks 6-12 were bookended by top-15 performances in advantageous spots against the Titans and Chargers, but his average finish was WR53 in the five games between during that stretch.
Flowers is sitting just outside of my top 30 this week. I have no issue in taking a chance on him if you need to, given the implied total for the Ravens in this one. However, understand that he’s nowhere near a must-start and carries more downside than you might assume.
Odell Beckham Jr.: The volume is a concern (only three games with more than five targets this season), but this is a dart throw that I’m interested in when it comes to constructing DFS rosters.
MORE: Katz’s Fantasy Football Start ’Em, Sit ’Em Picks for Week 14
This season, Beckham’s aDOT is 47.2% higher than that of Flowers, and while that sort of role carries risk, it’s an interesting one to gamble on against a Rams defense that owns the third-highest opponent aDOT.
My mean projection favors Flowers to Beckham for a Flex, but if you’re in a go-for-broke spot, Beckham’s ceiling case is obtainable in this specific matchup.
Tight Ends
Tyler Higbee: With a pair of touchdowns in Week 12 against the Cardinals, Higbee’s fantasy candle flickered for a minute there, but he caught just two passes for 35 yards last week against the Browns.
That performance last week isn’t much different from the expectation that he had set for himself before Week 12 (Week 1-11 averages: 2.7 catches for 43.1 yards), and it is what I think you can expect this week and moving forward.
Higbee sits as a fringe top-20 option at the position this week and isn’t a player I’m considering viable against a rested Ravens defense that is on the short list of defenses that are potentially the best in the league.
Isaiah Likely: You hear “trust the process” a lot these days — I’m tempted to do just that with Likely. After being a popular addition in Week 12 following the Mark Andrews ankle injury, Likely was a volume drop this time last week.
I’m assuming it was mostly to do with the Week 13 bye than it was a four-catch, 40-yard effort against the Chargers. The performance wasn’t overwhelming, but a 20% target share isn’t a bad starting point, given the potency of this offense.
Two other notes that shouldn’t be overlooked. The first is straightforward: Todd Monken and the company had the bye week to tweak their system to adjust to the strengths of Likely as opposed to Andrews. The second requires a little more reflection.
Likely posted an aDOT lower than one foot in Week 12. Not one yard. One foot. Some people will run from a number like that due to a lack of upside, but I’m running toward it. A role like that can elevate his value at a position where a viable floor is tough to find, but more importantly, it speaks to the desire to get him the ball in space.
This season, Evan Engram, Dalton Kincaid, and Jake Ferguson are among the TEs with a sub-6.0 aDOT, all of whom offer weekly value. I’m not saying Likely will produce at a level comparable to those options, but I do think he is closer to them than he is to those his name is next to on your waiver wire.
Should You Start Cooper Kupp or Michael Pittman Jr.?
At this point, it has to be Pittman. I don’t want to say his consistent volume reminds me of peak Kupp, but it’s not far off of it, and because I think their run game should have success this week, Pittman figures to find himself in advantageous spots down the field consistently.
On the Kupp side, I’m worried, and a brutal matchup doesn’t help. With Kyren Williams back, Los Angeles wants to run the ball and shorten games — not ideal for a volume-oriented fantasy option like Kupp. With them facing arguably the best defense in the league, I think you can side with the elevated floor of Pittman and feel good about it.
Should You Start Gus Edwards or Zack Moss?
Edwards relies on touchdowns, and that can be a risky proposition. My fear for him is that with Baltimore coming off their bye, there is increased creativity when it comes to the usage of Keaton Mitchell and Isaiah Likely. If that is the case, food comes off Edwards’ plate and brings his floor scenarios front and center.
Moss received every Colts RB carry a week ago and is essentially used similarly as this team used peak Jonathan Taylor. This is a great bounce-back spot for a player with one of the top-five roles in the sport — Moss is a fantasy star who cannot be benched in any format this week, even after a disappointing Week 13.
Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!
