The Los Angeles Chargers will face the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 11. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Chargers skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 11 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Justin Herbert, QB
Don’t look now, but Justin Herbert is getting comfortable in this system, and the fantasy numbers are coming along for the ride. He’s been a top-12 QB in three straight games, a major accomplishment for a player who previously didn’t have a single top-15 finish this season.
Herbert carries his recent momentum (multiple total touchdowns accounted for in all three of those games with 9.4 yards per pass attempt) into a matchup that faces the 10th-most pass attempts per game, in part because they have the third-lowest sack percentage.
More important than Herbert’s direct matchup, though, is his indirect one. He obviously won’t be on the field at the same time as Joe Burrow, but if Cincinnati can do what few have been able to do and score with regularity against this Los Angeles defense, Herbert will be pushed in a way he really hasn’t this season.
I currently have Herbert ranked as QB8 for Week 11 and would be happy to play him in any league where I have him.
Gus Edwards, RB
Gus Edwards (ankle) returned to action last week, his first appearance since September, and was used in a pretty similar way.
Weeks 1-4
- 37.8% snap share
- 3.1 expected fantasy points per game
Week 10
- 24.6% snap share
- 5.5 expected fantasy points
He was heavily used when on the field (10 carries for 55 yards) and looked about as good as we could have hoped after the extended absence. That said, the best case scenario isn’t overly appealing in most fantasy leagues.
In the Week 10 win over the Titans, five different Chargers had multiple rush attempts. If a wide distribution of work in this backfield is going to stick, Edwards reaching double digit carries isn’t going to be the norm and without a versatile skill set, asking him to return standalone value isn’t wise.
You can stash him if you lack other options, but he’s a handcuff to JK Dobbins that doesn’t carry the type of role upside that half a dozen other handcuffs do.
J.K. Dobbins, RB
I don’t mean to be a bucket of cold water, but there are too many signs to ignore at this point when it comes to J.K. Dobbins’ profile.
After the red-hot start to the season, he’s underachieved in six of seven games and has seen his yards gained per carry before contact come crashing back to Earth. On Sunday against the Titans, he was given 18 more touches and exactly none of them gained more than 12 yards. Gus Edwards returned from injury, and that resulted in Dobbins posting his lowest snap share since Week 3 (66.7%), something that I think is likely to stick.
We aren’t yet at Thanksgiving and Dobbins already has set career marks in carries (141), targets (28), and receptions (24). Fantasy is a game played looking through the windshield and not the rearview; managers doing that are looking for ways to offload this Bolt if at all possible.
The good news is that it should be doable. You can sell Dobbins as a way for the Chargers to play defense with their offense over the next month as they play nothing but offenses with high upside (Bengals, Ravens, Falcons, and Chiefs). You’re playing him until the wheels fall off, but I’d be happy to take a Brian Robinson Jr.-type back in a deal if it’s available.
Joshua Palmer, WR
Joshua Palmer is exactly what you think he is, and there’s a level of comfort in that. He has yet to earn more than five targets in a game, creating a terrifyingly low floor, but at least there’s a ceiling to chase (19.5+ aDOT in three straight games).
When it comes to dart throws on your waiver wire, Palmer is a fine option against a Bengals defense that ranks 22nd in both opponent pass TD rate and pressure percentage. There is no shortage of players like this (Mike Williams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling come to mind), but I like having a player like this on my bench in case of emergency while understanding that they are highly unlikely to ever rank as a strong Flex play.
Ladd McConkey, WR
This Chargers offense opening up is enough to keep Ladd McConkey on Flex radars for the remainder of the season, but I don’t like him as much as the rest of the industry does this week.
First of all, what was last week? I like McConkey as the WR1 in this offense, but players in that role rarely go through an entire game seeing a target on just 9.5% of their routes. I’m not calling it predictive yet, but that floor is scary for a rookie receiver who is naturally at risk of NFL defenses adjusting to how they cover him.
The slightly less obvious pivot point is the matchup. No, I’m not going to sell you the Bengals as anything besides a vulnerable unit, but they allow the sixth-fewest yards per completion to the slot this season. Cincinnati can be had elsewhere (and by “elsewhere,” I mean “everywhere else”), but I don’t think he’s positioned as well as you’d assume as 69.3% of McConkey’s routes since Week 4 have come in the slot.
For me, he’s in the Jaylen Waddle/Flex-if-forced tier. For reference, I’m starting Cedric Tillman over him this week and would play Tank Dell over him as well, regardless of Nico Collins’ status for Monday night.
Quentin Johnston, WR
A few times per season, we see a player perform so far above expectation that it is difficult to digest, usually coming by way of a crazy touchdown rate. In recent years, Christian Watson and Jordan Addison come to mind as young receivers who rode unsustainable scoring efficiency to strong seasons.
Those two were able to remain productive for their breakout season but have been bitten by the regression bug to a degree since. That’s the thing about regression — we can all feel it looming, but it’s an inexact science when it comes to projecting the impact in a single-game sample size.
Enter Quentin Johnston, a player who has scored on 17.2% of his targets this season. For reference, Calvin Johnson scored on 10.1% of his targets during the best scoring season of his Hall of Fame career. He’s 12.8 PPR fantasy points away from matching his rookie season total despite having seen 38 fewer targets.
Nothing about this feels real to me (two touchdowns have come in games with a single-digit on-field target share, he doesn’t have an end-zone target in five of seven games, etc.) and yet, because of the matchup, he’s deserving of Flex consideration.
Bengals defensive rankings, 2024:
- 23rd in yards per game
- 28th in points per drive
- 29th in touchdown rate
- 31st in red-zone efficiency
For me, betting on Johnston is more of a bet on his quarterback than anything else. During this three-game winning streak, Justin Herbert owns the fourth-highest passer rating in the NFL (119.2 trailing only Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, and Kirk Cousins). I have him ranked as a WR3, just ahead of options whom I view as equally volatile as Johnston but with less support under center (Calvin Ridley, Brian Thomas Jr., and Rome Odunze).
Cincinnati Bengals at Los Angeles Chargers Trends
Cincinnati Bengals
Team: Most Cincinnati games the rest of the way come against a quarterback who was his team’s Week 1 starter.
QB: Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson both had unique games on Thursday night. For Burrow, he’s the first AFC QB to throw four touchdown passes in consecutive games since … well, Joe Burrow (Weeks 16-17, 2021).
Offense: Cincinnati is averaging 2.51 points per drive, 6.8% higher than any other season under Joe Burrow.
Defense: From 2008-23, the Bengals lost twice when scoring 33 points in a game – they’ve done it three times in eight weeks this season.
Fantasy: Would you believe me if I told you that Week 10 was Chase’s third-best performance of the season when comparing his actual production to expectations (+83.3%)?
- Week 3 vs. Washington Commanders: +133.4%
- Week 5 vs. Baltimore Ravens: +115.4%
Betting: The Bengals are 6-2 ATS in their past eight road games on extended rest.
Los Angeles Chargers
Team: Ramp up the aggression — the Chargers record a sack on 15.1% of their blitzes, the second-highest rate in the league (NFL average: 9.2%).
QB: Justin Herbert’s three highest passer rating performances of the season have come in Los Angeles’ past three games, and his 77.8% completion percentage on Sunday against the Titans was his best of the season.
Offense: Only 3% of Charger drives have ended with a turnover this season, a rate that will be the lowest of the millennium if they can sustain it (the Commanders are also in that conversation at 3.1%).
Defense: Over the past three weeks, the Chargers have a 14% sack rate (Weeks 2-7: 5.8%).
Fantasy: Quentin Johnston has scored on 17.2% of his targets this season. For reference, Calvin Johnson scored on 10.1% of his targets during the best scoring season of his Hall of Fame career.
Betting: The Chargers are the only team yet to play multiple games decided by six or fewer points.