The Los Angeles Chargers had high hopes entering the 2023 campaign, but injuries and ineffectiveness have tarnished what was supposed to be a winning season. A 5-8 team that just lost starting quarterback Justin Herbert to a fractured right index finger doesn’t look like the most appealing playoff contender, but the Chargers may still have a shot in a murky AFC.
Let’s run through Los Angeles’ chances at a Wild Card berth and determine whether the Kansas City Chiefs’ recent struggles have created an opening for the Chargers in the AFC West.
Chargers Playoff Chances | Week 15 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Dec. 14 before Sunday’s games began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the day.
After Sunday Night Football in Week 15, the Chargers are the No. 13 seed in the AFC.
Saturday Games Update
Bengals (8-6) defeated Vikings (7-7)
Colts (8-6) defeated Steelers (7-7)
Lions (10-4) defeated Broncos (7-7)
Sunday Games Update
Browns (9-5) defeated Bears (5-9)
Dolphins (10-4) defeated Jets (5-9)
Chiefs (9-5) defeated Patriots (3-11)
Texans (8-6) defeated Titans (5-9)
Bills (8-6) defeated Cowboys (10-4)
Sunday Night Football Update
Ravens (11-3) defeated Jaguars (8-6)
Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the Chargers entering Sunday of Week 15. And head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how the postseason picture changes.
What Are the Los Angeles Chargers’ Playoff Chances Entering Week 15?
L.A.’s intra-AFC West loss to the Denver Broncos in Week 14 undoubtedly hindered the club’s playoff chances.
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) gave the Chargers an 18.2% chance of making the playoffs entering their matchup against the Broncos. But those odds are down to just 3.4% after Los Angeles’ 24-7 loss to Denver.
Is there a scenario in which the Chargers sneak into the postseason? Sure, but those odds suggest how unlikely their path will be.
While L.A. is only two games out of the AFC’s seventh seed, six clubs in the conference already have seven wins. The Cleveland Browns, currently residing in the AFC’s No. 5 slot, have eight.
Winning enough games over the regular season’s final month to get back in the Wild Card conversation will be difficult for the Chargers, especially given their dreadful 3-5 conference record. But they will have the opportunity to face several AFC rivals to close the campaign.
Los Angeles finishes the year with four AFC opponents: the Las Vegas Raiders, Buffalo Bills, Broncos, and Chiefs. A four-game win streak to end the year would move the Chargers to 9-8, but their playoffs would still sit at roughly 50%.
In Week 15, L.A. won’t be able to move up in the AFC standings even if they defeat the Raiders on Thursday night. Currently in the 11th slot, the Chargers are two games behind the 10th-seeded Bills.
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
A TNF win would give Los Angeles some hope it could fight back into the postseason mix. But there’s still the elephant in the room: Herbert’s return timeline following finger surgery.
The Chargers aren’t simply facing a daunting trail to the playoffs — they’re doing so with Easton Stick under center.
L.A. selected Stick, a North Dakota State product, in the fifth round of the 2019 NFL Draft. He’d attempted one pass heading into Sunday’s game and finished 13-of-24 for 179 scoreless yards against Denver in Week 14.
Can the Chargers Still Win the AFC West in 2023?
While the Chargers haven’t been eliminated from AFC West contention, their odds of winning the division are incredibly slim. FPI pegs L.A.’s chances of ending Kansas City’s seven-year run atop the standings at just 0.6%.
The Chargers have lost four of their last five games, but the Chiefs have been nearly as poor, dropping four of their previous six. Kansas City has failed to put the division away, but Los Angeles would also have to leap Denver in order to grab the AFC West title.
The Chiefs are 8-5 entering Week 15, giving them a three-game lead over the Chargers with four games to go. As such, there is a path for the Bolts to come back and win the division crown, but it’s narrow.
Realistically, Brandon Staley’s team likely needs to win out to have any chance at the AFC West title. If the Chargers go 3-1, they could still win the division, but they’d need the Chiefs to lose all four of their remaining games. While Patrick Mahomes and Co. are struggling, banking on an 0-4 Kansas City run isn’t where L.A. wants to be.
Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!