The Los Angeles Chargers fantasy preview takes a look at the value of their ascending WR2, while the New York Jets‘ fantasy outlook is again focused on Garrett Wilson.
Los Angeles Chargers at New York Jets
- Spread: Chargers -3
- Total: 41.5
- Chargers implied points: 22.3
- Jets implied points: 19.3
Quarterbacks
Justin Herbert: If Herbert could play the NFC North every game of the year, we’d be in business. He lit up the Chicago Bears on Sunday night and now has completed 71-of-87 passes for 703 yards and six touchdowns in two games against the North this season.
The Week 8 matchup was a perfect one against a low-pressure Chicago defense. Subsequently, Herbert was comfortable for the entire evening. That’s unlikely to be the case this weekend, with the Jets being a bottom-three blitzing team that creates pressure at a top-three rate.
The matchup has Herbert ranking at the bottom of my third tier of signal-callers this week (Tua Tagovailoa and Joe Burrow being the other members), but still an easy start in all formats.
We have had a weird trend through eight weeks. Herbert has multiple passing scores in his past four games against non-divisional games but has failed to accomplish that in his two divisional games this season. I’m not reading into this development, but I did want to share it with you the people – four of Los Angeles’ final five games come within the division.
Zach Wilson: Things are getting worse before they get better for Wilson. With the Jets now winning three straight games, is Aaron Rodgers approaching stash range? Over the past two games, Wilson has one touchdown pass (let’s face it, all he did on that score was get the ball to Breece Hall and watched him cook) and has completed just 52.2% of his passes.
New York is remaining competitive despite its quarterback, and even with the limitations under center, they’ve thrown the ball over 35 times in three of their past five contests. It’s fair to wonder what Rodgers would provide for fantasy purposes if his miracle recovery is trending in the direction we are led to believe.
For this week, Wilson is slightly above skill position players for the OP spot in Superflex formats. The Jets just don’t need him to produce and are trending toward asking him to do very little, even in a favorable matchup.
Running Backs
Austin Ekeler: The former All-Pro has yet to run for 50 yards since returning from injury (43 carries without a rush gaining more than seven yards), but he does have a 28+ yard catch in three of his four games this season, reminding us that his versatility is tough to completely slow down.
MORE: Austin Ekeler Fantasy Value
We have a six-year sample size of Ekeler being efficient on the ground, so I’m not worried about that portion of his profile. Christian McCaffrey is the only running back I’d confidently rank above Ekeler for the remainder of the season.
Breece Hall: Big-time players make big-time plays, and while Hall continues to struggle to find room to run, he continues to come through for fantasy managers.
Against the New York Giants last week, he averaged under five feet per carry (12 carries for 17 yards), yet he finished with 18.3 fantasy points. He has caught 11 passes (for 130 yards and a touchdown) over his past two games, as the Jets are clearly scheming up ways to get him in space.
Do I worry that none of his 24 carries in his past two games have gained more than nine yards? Or that if you remove unpredictable runs of 70+ yards, his yards per carry dips from 5.7 to 3.8? Yeah, I do.
That creates an uncomfortable floor that most inside my top 15 at the position aren’t in danger of hitting.
That said, he gets a leaky Chargers defense that is traveling west-to-east following a night game. His 26.5% target share from last week is unlikely to remain, but the fact that they are that committed to getting him looks is all I need in this spot to rank him as a low-end RB1/high-end RB2 across the board.
Wide Receivers
Keenan Allen: With at least eight catches or a score in five of his past six games, Allen is as reliable as it gets right now. His target share is flirting with 30%, and he has more receiving yards than any two of his teammates combined this season.
Could he be the highest-scoring player over the final four weeks of the fantasy season? Per the Week 9 Cheat Sheet:
- Week 14 vs. Broncos
- Week 15 at Raiders
- Week 16 vs. Bills
- Week 17 at Broncos
Allen is proving to be one of the most valuable picks in the first half of drafts this summer, a reminder that the age curve is a guide, not a crystal ball.
Editor’s Note (Nov. 4, 4:15 p.m. ET): Joshua Palmer has been ruled out for Week 9.
The 24-year-old was underwhelming against the Bears, with a mid-game knee injury not helping things. He returned to the game, but at less than full strength in a one-sided game, there was no need for the Bolts to overextend their WR2.
MORE: Fantasy Football Trade Value Chart Week 9
I remain confident that Palmer is a reliable Flex option and have him ranked as a fringe top-30 receiver in this spot.
Quentin Johnston: Simi Fehoko (fifth-rounder from 2021) scored on his only reception, a frustrating development for those trying to remain patient on Johnston. The rookie, however, did set season highs in catches (five), targets (six), and yards (50) against Chicago.
I have him ranked a few spots behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba this week and will continue to moving forward. They have a role that keeps them on the field but are an injury away from mattering for us.
Garrett Wilson: The budding star has at least a dozen targets or a touchdown in five of seven games this season (100 yards on 13 targets against the Giants last week). Of course, the per-target value is capped due to lack of firepower in this offense — that’s not going to change.
Despite an explosive skill set, Wilson only has one 35+ yard catch this season (68 targets). Given the depth at the position, Wilson hasn’t cracked my top 24 fantasy receivers since the Rodgers injury, and this week won’t be the first. He’s trending in that direction, however, and remains a strong Flex option in all leagues.
Allen Lazard: Thoughts and prayers to you if you’re looking for a secondary Jets pass catcher. In leagues with deep benches, Lazard can be stashed after a season-high six targets, but we aren’t talking about a player you’d ever consider with Wilson under center. Throwing him at the end of your roster is a cheap bet on Rodgers returning when it matters most for fantasy managers.
Tight Ends
Gerald Everett: After scoring in consecutive games, Everett (hip) sat out last week’s game against the Bears. He is a good player in a pass-happy offense, so he needs to be kept on your radar, but he’s also splitting targets with a touchdown vulture in Donald Parham, and that makes establishing any semblance of consistency near impossible.
If he proves to be fully healthy entering the weekend, he’ll be on my list of viable tight end streamers, but he is not a must-roster option.
Should You Start Joshua Palmer or DJ Moore?
Both of these receivers are talented, so I’ll take my chances on Palmer and his stability at the quarterback position. I believe these two possess access to a similar ceiling, but the floor in the Bears’ low-octane offense is a deal-breaker in a spot like this.
Should You Start Garrett Wilson or Amari Cooper?
Give me Wilson this week. Neither of these receivers plays for an offense I trust at the moment, but I do think more will be required from the Jets’ passing game in order to remain competitive this weekend than from the Cleveland Browns vs. Arizona. Wilson wins out, understanding that both have a wide range of outcomes.