The Los Angeles Chargers‘ fantasy preview takes a look at the expected return of Joshua Palmer, while the New England Patriots‘ fantasy football outlook wonders if Rhamondre Stevenson can continue to produce RB1 numbers.
Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots
- Spread: Chargers -6.5
- Total: 40
- Chargers implied points: 23.8
- Patriots implied points: 16.3
Quarterbacks
Justin Herbert: The three-game skid for the Bolts isn’t ideal, but 45.3 opportunities (passes plus rushes) per game over that stretch keeps Herbert away from the team struggles. He was QB15 in a tough spot last week against the Ravens after finishing three of his previous four games as a top-eight producer.
For you college football fans, Herbert is Penn State — dominate the teams you’re supposed to and underperform in the other spots.
Average Positional Finishes This Season
- Tough Matchups (BAL, KC, NYJ, DAL): QB17
- Easier Matchups (everyone else): QB6
So his ranking comes down to how you evaluate the Patriots. I think they’re good but not elite, making Herbert a top-10 play for me.
Running Backs
Austin Ekeler: I wrote about Ekeler’s fantasy value following the Sunday Night Football dud against the Ravens, and I encourage you to check it out. I had more space to go into detail there than I do in a weekly preview like this.
Better times are ahead once you manage your expectations a touch.
Rhamondre Stevenson: I’m not ready to bend the knee and say that Stevenson should be considered moving forward how he was viewed in August, but he’s certainly trending in that direction by finishing as an RB2 or better in five of his past six games (three top-10 finishes).
MORE: PFN Consensus Rankings
The first step in that process is a lead role. Last week, he held a 53-15 snap edge over Ezekiel Elliott (25-5 advantage in routes run) and posted 20+ carries for the second straight game, bringing his season total to two such games.
The other significant step for fantasy managers is the fact that Stevenson has seen at least four targets in six straight games. The Chargers’ run defense has been more vulnerable through the air than on the ground of late, but let’s not confuse this as some defensive front to fear.
I have Stevenson as my RB19 this week, with the thought being that New England continues to funnel their offense through him in what figures to be a close game; it’s the Chargers, almost all games are like that.
Ezekiel Elliott: We thought he’d be a touchdown vulture, but Elliott’s been held out of the end zone in nine of 11 games and has just three games this season with 10+ carries. He’s Tyler Allgeier, just older and on a team that’s less competitive. If you’re still holding Zeke for any reason, it’s time to move on.
Wide Receivers
Keenan Allen: This offense is built to provide Allen with a high floor (four straight top-20 finishes), and the veteran has shown more juice after the catch than any of us could have expected. That ability has fueled some very nice upside (five top-five finishes) and has shown no signs of letting up.
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
Allen’s name is going to be a popular one on teams that finish this fantasy season with a title. Good on you for labeling him a strong value this summer!
Joshua Palmer: The encouraging third-year receiver is eligible to come off of IR this week (knee) and should walk right back into the WR2 role given that none of his teammates came even remotely close to assuming that role.
To further solidify that notion is the fact that Quentin Johnston missed most of the second half of the Week 12 loss to the Ravens. Palmer saw at least seven balls thrown his way in each of his past four healthy games, a level of involvement I’d expect him to see this week.
In a perfect world, you can wait to Flex Palmer and make sure he is 100% healthy for a stretch run that is fantasy-friendly (DEN-LV-BUF-DEN). If you’re in a bind this week with six teams on a bye, Palmer can be viewed as a risky play in a similar vein as Zay Jones or Romeo Doubs.
Demario Douglas: The Patriots getting their top receiver hurt (head) on a punt return is a pretty good summation of their 2023 season. Loaded teams in PPR leagues that want a solid floor for their Flex play need to keep an eye on Douglas’ health for next week — he will NOT play on Sunday.
The slot receiver has caught at least five balls in four straight games and earned a target last week on 40.9% of his routes. That’s an elite rate, and with little talent around him, all of the target metrics should continue to impress when healthy.
Douglas has been a top-40 receiver in four of five games since returning from injury. While that may not sound like much, it’s a level of floor that is tough to find on the wire. On the right fantasy roster, Douglas makes plenty of sense. It’s important to know what your specific roster needs and your future trajectory.
Tight Ends
Gerald Everett and Donald Parham Jr.: Everett was the productive option this week (four catches for 43 yards and a touchdown), but the role remains murky. Parham didn’t earn a single target, but his route participation was in the same range as that of Everett — and, even more concerning was the fact that he ran a route on 78.6% of his snaps.
The Chargers have identified Parham as a valuable pass-catching asset in big spots, and that limits Everett’s projectable production to a point where I’m not comfortable putting him inside of my top 12 this week or moving forward.
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With Joshua Palmer expected back, targets are likely going to be even more difficult to come by, making both of these options mid-blob tight ends that can be streamed but are not must-rosters by any means.
Should You Start Justin Herbert or Sam Howell?
I have them ranked back-to-back this week, and I’ll admit that Sam Howell offers a considerably higher floor. That said, Herbert is a significant favorite, while Howell is an underdog.
Herbert has access to two playmakers (Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler) that offer him more support than anything Howell has. I’m comfortable starting both this week, but if I have to pick one, give me Herbert.
Should You Start Rhamondre Stevenson or Brian Robinson Jr.?
Brian Robinson Jr.’s volume is a bit of a question mark given the wide-open nature of the Washington Commanders’ offense, a concern I don’t have for Stevenson in New England. I’d rather bet on volume than a touchdown, which leads me to rank Stevenson as a middling RB2, while Robinson is more of a Flex option.
Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!