Washington Commanders rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels has taken the league by storm. Daniels has exceeded all expectations as a rookie, putting together an excellent season and leading the Commanders to the playoffs.
Not only did he lead Washington to the postseason, the leading candidate for the Offensive Rookie of the Year award led the Commanders to the NFC Championship Game following the franchise’s nearly 19-year-long playoff win drought.
Rookie QBs To Win an NFL Playoff Game
- Jayden Daniel, Washington Commanders – 2024
- Total wins: 1
- Final result: Ongoing
- C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans – 2023
- Total wins: 1
- Final result: Lost Divisional Round
- Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers – 2022
- Total Wins: 2
- Final Result: Lost Conference Championship
- John Wolford, Los Angeles Rams – 2020
- Total Wins: 1 (Replaced by Jared Goff due to neck injury)
- Final Result: Lost Divisional Round
- Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks – 2012
- Total Wins: 1
- Final Result: Lost Divisional Round
- T.J. Yates, Houston Texans – 2011
- Total Wins: 1
- Final Result: Lost Divisional Round
- Mark Sanchez, New York Jets – 2009
- Total Wins: 2
- Final Result: Lost Conference Championship
- Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens – 2008
- Total Wins: 2
- Final Result: Lost Conference Championship
- Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers – 2004
- Total Wins: 1
- Final Result: Lost Conference Championship
- Aaron Brooks, New Orleans Saints – 2000
- Total Wins: 1
- Final Result: Lost Divisional Round
- Shaun King, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 1999
- Total Wins: 1
- Final Result: Lost Conference Championship
- Dieter Brock, Los Angeles Rams – 1985*
- Total Wins: 2
- Final Result: Lost Conference Championship
- Pat Haden, Los Angeles Rams – 1976
- Total Wins: 1
- Final Result: Lost Divisional Round
*While technically classified as a rookie, Dieter Brock was actually 34 years old when he made his debut in the NFL. Before then, he played 10 seasons in the Canadian Football League.
Jayden Daniels and Commanders Defeat Buccaneers
The Commanders and Tampa Bay Buccaneers fought right down to the wire, but Jayden Daniels and Co. came out on top with a last-second field goal to win 23-20 in the Wild Card Round.
Entering the game, there had only been five rookie QBs to lead a fourth-quarter comeback in the playoffs, including two who did it on the road (Russell Wilson in 2012 at Washington and Mark Sanchez in 2009 at San Diego). Daniels has now etched his name into the record book.
MORE: Has a Rookie QB Ever Won the Super Bowl?
Daniels’ 80.6 (B-) QB+ ranking in this win ranked third-best among the six rookies that have made their playoff debuts since 2019. It ranks behind C.J. Stroud’s 94.6 and Brock Purdy’s 89.9. The 80.6 grade is sixth of 16 qualified games played by Daniels this season.
This season, Daniels threw for 3,568 yards and 25 touchdowns while also rushing for 891 yards and six scores on the ground. He led the Commanders to a 12-5 record and posted an 85.7 score in PFN’s QB+ metric, which ranked ninth-best among all QBs this season.
Daniels pulled off a second consecutive upset over the Detroit Lions in the Divisional Round. Can his miraculous run continue?
C.J. Stroud’s Postseason Debut Against the Browns
Stroud and DeMeco Ryans became the first rookie QB and rookie head coach to win a division since the NFL/AFL merger in 1970, leading to a Wild Card matchup between the 11-7 Texans and 11-7 Cleveland Browns.
Stroud led Houston to its first playoff win since 2019, blowing out the Browns 45-14. Against the NFL’s top-ranked defense, the rookie quarterback threw for 274 yards, three touchdowns (tying the rookie playoff record), and zero interceptions with a 76.2% completion percentage.
What makes this performance even more impressive is that Stroud sat out most of the fourth quarter since the Texans had such a big lead.
Stroud became the youngest quarterback in NFL history to win a postseason game. Despite it being his playoff debut, he posted the third-highest playoff passer rating of all time (157.2).
Mr. Irrelevant Joins the Exclusive Club
During the 2022 NFL playoffs, Brock Purdy joined this list by leading the San Francisco 49ers past the Seattle Seahawks 41-23 in their Wild Card matchup.
Purdy was the final pick (No. 262) in the 2022 NFL Draft. Eight quarterbacks were drafted before him — including Kenny Pickett at No. 20, Desmond Ridder at No. 74, Malik Willis at No. 86, and Matt Corral at No. 94 — yet Purdy is the only one who’s still starting in the NFL.
Throwing for 332 yards, Purdy once again added his name to the record books by having the most passing yards by a rookie QB in his playoff debut and the second-most by a rookie in the playoffs overall.
Not only that, Purdy actually threw for the third-most passing yards overall in 49ers playoff history, behind only two Joe Montana performances (357 and 347 yards). That is quite the feat, considering the legends that the 49ers have had under center.
Can Daniels Become the First Rookie QB To Play in a Super Bowl?
With one more win, Daniels can become the first rookie quarterback to start in the Super Bowl. Daniels will be the sixth rookie QB to start in the Conference Championship Round; the prior five went 0-5 and performed disastrously.
Including the playoffs, Daniels ranks first in EPA per dropback when blitzed (0.36). While still effective against standard pass rushes, his EPA per dropback drops to 0.10 (13th) in those situations.
During the Commanders’ playoff run, Daniels became the first rookie QB in NFL history to record 275 passing yards and 50 rushing yards in a playoff win, the first rookie to beat a No. 1 seed since Joe Flacco in 2008, and the third rookie QB to win two road playoff games (joining Flacco and Mark Sanchez).
Now, Daniels will face an Eagles defense that blitzes at the second-lowest rate of any team this season, including playoffs. During their two regular-season matchups, Daniels punished the Eagles’ blitz, producing an incredible 1.03 EPA (Expected Points Added) per dropback and 14.5 yards per attempt when blitzed.
Philadelphia only blitzed him on 14 of his 84 dropbacks (17%) in those games. Against their non-blitz pass rush, Daniels was far less effective, averaging a modest -0.02 EPA per dropback.
Saquon Barkley had significant success against Washington. In their two matchups, Barkley rushed for 451 yards and four touchdowns, averaging an impressive 5.4 yards per carry.
However, the Commanders found a way to limit Barkley in Week 16 after Jalen Hurts left the game in the first quarter, forcing Kenny Pickett to step in. Over the final three quarters, Barkley managed just 41 rushing yards on 22 attempts. Before Hurts’ injury, Barkley had been averaging over 7.7 yards per carry against Washington.
If Hurts is limited by his left leg injury, the Commanders could focus on loading up against Barkley to contain the Eagles’ rushing attack. By committing additional resources to stop Barkley, they might aim to force Hurts to rely more on his passing game, testing his mobility and effectiveness with the injury.
The Eagles have leaned heavily on Barkley and Hurts’ rushing abilities to generate offense in the playoffs. Through two games, 70.9% of their total yards have come on the ground.
The Commanders will play in the NFC Championship Game for the first time since 1991. Only the Browns, who last appeared in a Conference Championship Game in 1989, endured a longer drought.
Washington went 4-13 (.235) last year, marking the fourth-worst win percentage in the season prior to making a Conference Championship appearance, trailing only the 2017 Jaguars (0.188), 2006 Saints (0.188), and 1967 Oilers (0.214).
The Eagles lost two games in September and have lost one game since — at Washington in Week 16 after Hurts exited early with a concussion. In that loss, Philadelphia became the first team to score 21 points in the first quarter in a losing effort since the 2019 Texans (during the Divisional Round on the road against the Chiefs).
PFN’s Playoff Predictor gives the Eagles a 61.8% chance of winning this game while the Commanders have 38.2% odds.
