The Detroit Lions are 7-1 and one of the most dominant teams in the NFL this year. They lead the league in point differential by 23, have just five turnovers on the season, and have a positive EPA (expected points added) in all three phases of the game.
The Houston Texans are coming off of a disappointing Thursday night game in which CJ Stroud played poorly and they fell to 6-3. The offense as a whole has left a lot to be desired with injuries and overall inconsistency but the defense and Stroud’s clutch moments keep them very dominant overall.
Detroit Lions vs. Houston Texans Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
Lions -3.5 - Moneyline
Lions (-192); Texans (+160) - Over/Under
49.5 total points - Game Time
Sunday, Nov. 10, 8:20 p.m. ET - Location
NRG Stadium
Lions vs. Texans Preview and Prediction
According to TruMedia, the Texans’ offense is ranked 20th in EPA. That includes the 18th-ranked passing offense and 27th-ranked rushing offense. The offense is ranked 26th on first and second downs and ninth on third and fourth downs. They also rank 23rd in turning a set of downs into a new set of downs. Part of the struggle on early downs is the playcalling from offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik.
Houston’s offense has a negative pass rate over expected on first and second downs and a positive one on third and fourth downs. If you look at this compared to the rest of the league, they rank 11th, 31st, second, and second on first through fourth downs, respectively. While it is nice that they are fantastic in late-down situations, that is not sustainable.
This is especially important against a defense like Detroit which boasts the 25th-ranked rush defense in EPA and fourth-ranked pass defense in EPA. On top of this, the Lions have the No. 2-ranked pass-funnel defense in the league, meaning the Lions consistently force teams into passing situations. If Houston refuses to ditch the run on early downs, this could set them up with quite an unfavorable matchup.
The Lions’ offense has lived up to the hype, ranking fourth in EPA and capitalizing on big-play chances. Although they rank only 16th in plays gaining 10 or more yards and 12th in plays of 20+ yards, they are highly explosive on longer gains, ranking third in plays of 50 or more yards and fifth in EPA on plays of 10+ and 20+ yards.
The Lions’ run game is the perfect blend of scheme, offensive line talent, and running back skill. They rank fourth in yards per rush before contact, 12th in yards per rush after contact, and fifth in rushing success rate.
This is on top of a passing offense that is league average in pressure rate allowed, has the sixth quickest time to throw, and ranks third in EPA on scripted drives.
SportfolioKings has a drive-level statistic called EDP (earned drive points) that offers a new approach to analyzing performance by focusing on the sustainability of drives rather than final outcomes. Unlike EPA, which measures play-level results in a backward-looking frame of reference, Drive Quality isolates the true value of a drive, providing a more predictive, process-focused view of team performance on each drive.
Using this, we can gather information on how teams perform in certain situations. The Lions and the Baltimore Ravens are the only two offenses to be in the top five in EDP on both scripted and non-scripted plays. The Texans’ defense ranks ninth in EDP on scripted plays and fourth on non-scripted plays.
The Texans’ defense is 14th in pressure generated and blitzes at the third-highest rate in the league. Detroit’s offense ranks 11th when pressured and first by a wide margin when blitzed. While the Texans only rank 15th in defensive rush EPA, they prevent a successful rush on 67% of their opponents’ plays, which ranks third in the league.
The Texans are a really good football team, and I believe they will figure it out on offense once everyone is healthy. Unfortunately, it is almost impossible to stop the Lions’ offense, and the Texans need to figure out their early-down situation.
My pick: Lions -3.5 (-110); Lions ML (-192)