If you’re playing a Detroit Lions vs. Miami Dolphins DFS lineup for Sunday in Week 8, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
Lions Considerations
Football betting (and fantasy) are not for the impulsive or the slow-moving. There is a sweet spot — the intersection of rationality and bullishness. We believe what we believe because we know what we know.
Jared Goff entered this season as a fantasy and betting pariah. Some questioned whether he’d remain Detroit’s starter. I loved his September schedule and pushed him as an undervalued QB. He delivered 11 touchdowns in four games. Case closed.
But, of course, case not closed. Because nothing lasts forever, except beef jerky and whitewater rafting memories.
With his top running back and receivers sidelined, Goff was shut down in New England in Week 6. Last weekend, the home Cowboys squashed a similarly depleted Detroit offense.
Zero touchdowns in two games. Terrible QB. Case closed.
But, of course, case not closed. Because nothing stays closed forever, except your grandfather’s childhood beef jerky packaging and long-abandoned whitewater rafting supply outposts.
None of this was surprising, as the outcomes were based on a combination of tough road matchups and a loss of key personnel. This weekend’s opposing Dolphins are giving up the fifth-most QB fantasy points per game, and Detroit’s offense is getting healthier. I’m expecting 26+ points for this squad in a high-scoring, competitive matchup.
Dolphins Considerations
That leads us to Miami, which secured a solid win against Pittsburgh on Sunday night, ending a three-game slide and repositioning them as a solid contender for the AFC East title (even though the Bills will be tough to beat).
Remember what I write about Miami giving up the fifth-most QB fantasy points per game? Well, the opposing Lions are surrendering the fourth most.
MORE: NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 8
We will not be able to afford the Dolphins’ incredible WR duo and Tua Tagovailoa and two elite Lions. DFS contests don’t work that way for good reasons. Instead, we’ll need to dig a little deeper.
Can we trust Mike Gesicki? Should we snag the cheaper Trent Sherfield? Is Cedrick Wilson Jr. officially off all self-respecting bettors’ radars? (Hint: Offensive coordinator Wes Welker isn’t done with Wilson, so let’s not abandon him yet — although we can probably find safer inexpensive options.)
Top DFS Lineup for Lions vs. Dolphins
Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players.
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
Captain: RB D’Andre Swift, Lions ($13,500)
As the week has progressed, D’Andre Swift’s rosy outlook has solidified. He’s a locked-in RB1 whose elite pass-catching chops realistically could propel him to 20+ points.
Flex: WR Jaylen Waddle, Dolphins ($9,200)
$2,600 cheaper than Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle gives us a comparable ceiling — despite a recent injury that’s muted his production — while freeing some cap space to use on another high-ceiling option.
Flex: WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions ($8,800)
Speaking of high ceilings, few wideouts have a higher ceiling than Amon-Ra St. Brown, especially against an objectively weak Miami pass defense. As long as there are no health setbacks, St. Brown should feature prominently on Sunday.
Flex: WR Raheem Mostert, Dolphins ($8,600)
While hesitant to buy too much into Raheem Mostert’s four catches last weekend, he’s a bell cow facing one of the league’s worst run defenses. That has to be good enough.
Flex: TE T.J. Hockenson, Lions ($7,000)
If you’d rather take Hill over Waddle, then you can “downgrade” T.J. Hockenson for Jason Sanders and still make this slate financially viable. I put “downgrade” in quotation marks because Sanders could crack 12 points on Sunday. Then again, Hockenson, at his best, is far more explosive than any kicker. He’s an upside play.
Flex: WR Trent Sherfield, Dolphins ($2,800)
If anyone in this lineup has a setback by Sunday morning, there will be wiggle room to keep this lineup functional. For example, if Hockenson can’t play, we could replace him with Sanders and swap out Trent Sherfield for a higher-upside option.
Or we could go all in on the $1,000 Wilson, who might or might not be on the trading block. If he is, then why wouldn’t Miami feature him more prominently to help drive up his value?
Still, Sherfield is “safe” at this price. Nothing flashy. Probably a good bet for a 3-25 receiving line. His presence enables us to go big with the other five slots.