The Detroit Lions are coming off of one of the most surprising wins of the season after beating the Minnesota Vikings in the final seconds of their game last weekend. The Denver Broncos have found more success, although they’re as average of a team as there is in the NFL. They enter this game with a 6-6 record, posting a 3-3 record both at home and on the road. Below are the NFL odds for this game, along with a pick and prediction for the Lions vs. Broncos.
Detroit Lions vs. Denver Broncos pick, prediction | Week 14
- Spread: Broncos -8 (Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Moneyline: Lions +280, Broncos -365
- Over/Under: 42
How much do running backs matter?
D’Andre Swift has been the Lions’ best offensive player throughout the season. Yet, their first win came in a game where he wasn’t able to suit up. Detroit saw somewhat limited production from their running backs in Week 13, yet they upset the Vikings in an interdivisional game.
Swift’s versatility adds different dimensions to the Detroit offense that other players — such as Jamaal Williams — can’t contribute. The young running back is questionable once again this weekend, and he could miss his second game in a row.
[bet-bonus id=”164810″ ]On the other side, Javonte Williams saw a workhorse role without Melvin Gordon in the lineup last week. He’s been the better Broncos running back throughout his rookie season, and he posted 178 yards and 1 touchdown on 29 touches in a loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. Gordon is again questionable, potentially leaving Williams to find a bell-cow role for the second straight week.
How much does the running back position truly matter in the NFL? Did the Lions’ win and Broncos’ loss last week mean anything, or was it simply a coincidence?
Lions vs. Broncos betting trends
Detroit has consistently been undervalued by Vegas this season. They boast an 8-4 against the spread (ATS) record.
Oddly enough, they’re failing to cover by an average of 1.6 points per game, even though they’ve covered in 66.7% of their contests.
Denver is a more neutral team, covering the spread in exactly 50% of their games this season. They own a 3-3 ATS record at home and on the road as well.
These two teams have found the under significantly more often than the over. The Lions have hit in the under 66.7% of their games, while the Broncos have found it in a league-high 83.3% of theirs.
Lions vs. Broncos prediction
The Broncos aren’t one of the better teams in the NFL, but I don’t expect the Lions’ success to continue. Prior to last week, most people expected Detroit to go winless, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they end the season with a 1-15-1 record.
The question becomes — how much can the Broncos win by? The Lions have been surprisingly successful defending the run, and Denver may struggle to score.
I prefer to take the points in a game that I expect to stay low scoring throughout.
Lions vs. Broncos Prediction: Broncos 20, Lions 13