The Detroit Lions will battle the Minnesota Vikings next week for the right to earn the No. 1 seed. The loser falls to the No. 5 seed and will likely face the NFC South champion.
The San Francisco 49ers missed the playoffs on the back of several key injuries. Now, they face serious contract conversations as they try to retain their talent while also paying players their fair market value — keep an eye on Brock Purdy.
Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
Lions -3.5 - Moneyline
Lions (-180); 49ers (+150) - Over/Under
50.5 total points - Game Time
8:15 p.m ET - Location
Levi’s Stadium
Lions vs. 49ers Preview and Prediction
Per TruMedia, the Lions rank third in EPA (expected points added) per play and first in success rate offensively. Losing David Montgomery definitely hurts the offense, but it is not the end of the world. They still retain PFF’s third-ranked run-blocking offensive line and Jahmyr Gibbs to maintain one of the most balanced offenses in football.
This balance is part of what makes them difficult to defend. They rank fifth in EPA in likely pass situations, first in likely rush situations, third in late-down situations, fourth in the red zone, fourth when leading, and sixth when trailing. No matter the situation, the Lions’ offense is special.
The perfect example of this is the fact that Jared Goff won a game in which he threw five interceptions. Since 2000, there have been 45 games with a team throwing five interception — only three of them have won the game. Detroit ranks fourth among those 45 in points scored in that game as well.
While not bad, the Lions’ offense does drop to 11th in EPA under pressure. This pressure will need to come from your front four (or three) as they rank fourth in EPA when blitzed. San Francisco ranks 16th in pressure generated this season but jump up to eighth with just four pass rushers. This has been the bread and butter of dominant Niner defenses of the past: Get pressure with four and muddy the passing lanes.
As has been the case for most of Goff’s career, he struggles against defenses running Cover 2. The 2024 Lions are no different, ranking 15th in EPA against the coverage this season, their worst performance compared to other schemes. A key factor behind this could be Goff’s passing tendencies — he thrives in the middle of the field but struggles to attack the areas Cover 2 leaves vulnerable.
Since 2020, there are 54 quarterbacks with over 500 attempts. Goff ranks 16th in EPA on passes between the hashes, a strength that aligns with safer, shorter passes in the middle. However, he ranks just 37th on passes to either sideline and 18th on intermediate outside throws (sideline to numbers) — precisely the areas where Cover 2 is most susceptible.
The 49ers run Cover 2 on 7.7% of their plays, which is the 27th-most. They also rank 24th in defensive EPA against play-action compared to 16th not in play-action. Both of these things prove to be a mismatch against a Lions team that is first by a country mile in play-action.
Defensively, the Lions rank ninth in EPA and eighth in success rate. This unfortunately doesn’t tell the story of their current defense because of the absurd number of injuries. What makes the injuries worse is that it goes beyond just key players and starters and has taken a toll on their overall depth. Since Alex Anzalone was injured in week 11, the Lions’ defense ranks just 17th in EPA per play.
They face a 49ers offense that isn’t nearly as effective as years past. The injuries have absolutely taken a toll on this team as well, losing Brandon Aiyuk for a majority of the season. Trent Williams, Deebo Samuel, and others have also missed a significant amount of time this season as well.
The Niners rank 13th in EPA and success rate but still retain much of their explosive offense that makes them lethal. They average 3.7 passes of 20+ yards and 3.5 rushes of 10+ yards ranking fourth and 10th in each, respectively. Detroit will have to be careful of this on defense, ranking 30th in preventing passing explosives but 12th in preventing rushing explosives.
Overall, this is one of those games that can go either way. At full health, these are (in my opinion) the top two teams in the NFC. With injuries, the 49ers look like a shell of their former selves. But the Lions seem to be holding on and are still competitive.
My pick: Lions ML (-180)