The Detroit Lions will face the Tennessee Titans in Week 8. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Lions skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 8 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Jared Goff, QB
Jared Goff’s worst passer rating over the past month is 11.7 points higher than Patrick Mahomes’ best game of the season.
Think about how crazy that is. The Titans prefer to sit back in coverage (23rd in blitz rate and 31st in pressure rate), a defense that would be vulnerable to Jameson Williams’ speed working downfield. Goff, of course, won’t have his burner active, which hurts his ceiling, but I still think the floor is high enough to plug him in as a low-end QB1.
David Montgomery, RB
He was banged up early last week, and while he returned to action, it was after Jahmyr Gibbs had established himself as a game-wrecker, resulting in the worst game of the season for the veteran (12 touches for 70 yards).
James Cook, D’Andre Swift, and Josh Jacobs all failed to reach 10 fantasy points against this underrated Titans defense, but given the efficiency of this Lions offense, I’m not using that information to downgrade Monty in a significant way.
He (+20.7% over expectation this season, more than double the rate he posted last season) and Jahmyr Gibbs want to be known as Sonic and Knuckles, a nickname that passes the smell test. I’m here for that and everything that touches this Detroit offense right now!
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB
Jared Goff was great for the third straight week, but I’d argue that without Gibbs (19 touches for 160 yards and two touchdowns), the Lions wouldn’t have even been competitive with the Vikings last week, let alone victorious.
The second-year back is amazing and has a 20+ yard touch in five straight games. There is no new light I can shed on Gibbs, but I can make you think.
After watching him cripple a few professional athletes last week on his way to the end zone as a part of a 45-yard run, I was left wondering what is more difficult to do: tackle Gibbs in space or Derrick Henry when he is running downhill?
Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR
St. Brown was the recipient of a 35-yard dime from Jared Goff last week on his way to his fourth WR1 finish of the season. He’s now scored in four straight games and caught 25 of his 26 targets during that run, proving that this Lions team might be destined to do big things in 2024.
I could tell you that the Titans have allowed only four receivers to reach 13 fantasy points this season, but three of them came last week against the Bills (Amari Cooper, Keon Coleman, and Khalil Shakir all got there), meaning the form isn’t exactly there.
Given the efficiency of this offense, St. Brown is a real threat to lead the position in scoring this season. I’ll be interested to see how his role changes, if it does at all, with Jameson Williams off of the field for the next two weeks, though there is nothing actionable on that front. This offense is humming right now, and he’s at the center of it.
Jameson Williams, WR
News broke on Monday night that Williams is facing a two-game suspension for violating the NFL’s Performance-Enhancing Substances policy, a penalty he will accept and begin serving this weekend. With Williams coming off a negative-four-yard performance in Minnesota, fantasy managers are in a difficult spot. The down week doesn’t worry as much as the fact that the burner was able to earn only a single target in the Week 7 victory.
Jared Goff is on a borderline historic run of efficiency (three straight games with a passer rating of 140+). While that is a net positive for all members of this offense, it also results in low play volume, thus making weeks like this possible. I call it 49er-itis.
Williams earned 20 targets in the first two weeks this season and has just 10 on his ledger since. On the bright side, the Lions know where their bread is buttered. Their run game is feared, and they pull it out of their RBs’ stomachs to pass at the fourth-highest rate (18.2% of dropbacks), a style of play-calling that allows Williams to work downfield.
I was hopeful that we’d get something of a target-yearning breakout this season, but those hopes are fading. Williams owns plenty of upside any time he touches a field. With Goff playing at an MVP level, he has access to a WR1 week, but the usage concerns have him checking in as a Flex play for me more than a lineup lock.
He’s a firm hold. Having him burn you last week and not be active for the next two is obviously less than ideal, but his role isn’t at risk. With a healthy version of him coming back for the second half of the fantasy season, there is plenty of time for him to make an impact on your season.
Kalif Raymond, WR
This recent run from the Lions is emblematic of what the 49ers have done during the Brock Purdy era. What happened when that team increased the role of a reserve?
If you were on the Jauan Jennings bandwagon, I don’t need to remind you. That’s not to say that Raymond will produce anything like what Jennings has done this year, but it’s a nice reminder that an efficient offense has the power to elevate pass catchers well beyond even the most aggressive projection.
Through seven weeks, 37.1% of Raymond’s routes this season have come in the slot. Yes, that’s a place where Amon-Ra St. Brown typically lives, but maybe the team gets creative with their WR1 in an effort to make the undersized Raymond (5’8”) more comfortable.
Raymond and Tim Patrick will be vying for looks in this offense with Jameson Williams suspended. While I think Patrick is the more logical fit, I’m happy to add either as a way to get exposure to this machine.
Tim Patrick, WR
I don’t blame you if you want some Lions exposure in your life with Jared Goff playing at the highest level of his career. A healthy Patrick is as good a bet as any to return some cheap value while Jameson Williams (two-game suspension) is out of the mix.
Patrick and Kalif Raymond figure to see the greatest uptick in short-term usage. If this team wants to replace Williams’ ability to stretch the field, Patrick will prove to be the better addition between these two (his aDOT is 42.9% higher than that of Raymond this season). This is his seventh NFL season, and the knock on him hasn’t had anything to do with his talent (14.2 yards per catch with a touchdown on 7.8% of his receptions), it’s all been health-related.
Isn’t that the same story we told about J.K. Dobbins earlier this season? I’m not suggesting, or ranking, Patrick as the breakout star of Week 7. But there is an opportunity there, and I’m stashing him in all spots that I can.
Sam LaPorta, TE
LaPorta has been a victim of the success of the Lions, a vastly different story than the one we were telling in August. We liked this offense to succeed, with the budding star being a key cog in it. However, instead, they are putting points on the board so quickly that LaPorta hasn’t been near the target vacuum we projected.
In Week 1, he saw five targets and we were underwhelmed — the man hasn’t seen five targets in a game since. His aDOT and route participation are in the same range as they were a year ago, but with Jared Goff processing at the speed of light and distributing the ball to the first player to get open, LaPorta’s on-field target share has cratered from 21.7% to 10.2% (three targets on 43 routes run over the past two weeks).
In the short term, this has a chance of changing due to the suspension of Jameson Williams. Goff’s average yards per attempt is tracking to be a career high by 10.7%, a number that is inflated by the catch-and-run ability of a player like JaMo. Goff’s average depth of throw this season is actually a tick under his career average, and that’s consistent with what we had projected, but the Williams involvement on those passes was something we undershot.
With Williams sidelined for the next two weeks, I suspect we see something close to the 2023 version of LaPorta in terms of volume. You’ve hung in there up to this point, it’s time to be rewarded for your loyalty!
Tennessee Titans at Detroit Lions Game Insights
Tennessee Titans
Team: The Titans have only trailed at halftime in one of their six games this season. However, Tennessee is outscored 94-43 (-51) in the second half, which is the worst second-half point differential of any team this season.
QB: The decision-making has been an issue, but Will Levis’ completion percentage is 15 points higher this season than last when under pressure (55.6%).
Offense: Think things are working better with Mason Rudolph instead of Levis? The Titans are averaging -0.19 EPA per play with Levis on the field, which would rank 30th. With Rudolph on the field, the Titans are averaging -0.17 EPA per play, which would rank 28th.
Defense: The Titans are allowing a league-low 5.7 yards per play-action pass this season
Fantasy: Calvin Ridley has proven to be the definition of empty calories when it comes to targets over the past two weeks – three catches on 17 targets for 42 yards. Him being targeted on 28.3% of his routes over that stretch is great, but let him serve as a reminder that limitations under center can tank the value of any player, even if the role is strong.
Betting: The Titans have covered six of their past eight indoor games (average cover margin: +7.5 points).
Detroit Lions
Team: The Lions have a plus-62 point differential through six games played. It’s their second-best point differential through six games in the last 40 years (+
QB: Jared Goff has posted at least a 140 passer rating in three straight games. That’s tied for the longest streak in NFL history, along with Aaron Rodgers (2011), Kurt Warner (1999), and Roger Staubach (1971).
Jared Goff was under pressure on a season-high 51.7% of his dropbacks against the Vikings, finishing 10-of-11 for 164 yards and 2 touchdowns under pressure.
Goff is averaging a league-high 11.6 YPA under pressure this season; no other QB is over 9.0.
Powered by @awscloud pic.twitter.com/LQCg9V1adR
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) October 20, 2024
Offense: The Lions didn’t average more than 2.36 points per drive in any of their first three games this season. Since, however, they’ve been at 2.82 or better, averaging a difficult-to-comprehend 3.53 points per drive over that stretch.
Defense: In Weeks 3-6, the Lions blitzed on just 28.4% of opponent dropbacks, spiking to 38.9% last week in Minnesota without Aidan Hutchinson.
Fantasy: Sam LaPorta has three finishes as a top 12 tight end and three finishes outside of the top 20.
Betting: Since the start of the 2021 season, the Lions have had the best home ATS team in the league (20-8, 71.4%).