The Detroit Lions‘ RB depth chart sports the most successful fantasy football duo from the 2023 season, with both Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery possessing standalone value and high weekly ceilings.
Things change in the NFL quickly, though, and Gibbs’ ADP again massively outscales that of Montgomery. Have the tides turned in Detroit, or do both have a strong role in store again this season?
Can they both be useful for fantasy managers this season? Let’s examine the fantasy outlooks for Gibbs and Montgomery in 2024.
Jahmyr Gibbs’ Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR fantasy Points: 342.8 (269.7 Non-PPR)
- Rushing Yards: 1327.0
- Rushing Touchdowns: 14.0
- Receptions: 73.0
- Receiving Yards: 443.7
- Receiving Touchdowns: 1.4
The old saying “It’s not how you start that’s important but how well you finish” certainly feels like it applied to Gibbs’ rookie season.
Gibbs saw just 22 carries through the first month of the season when David Montgomery was active, which admittedly had some fantasy managers nervous after failing to log a top-15 fantasy finish at the RB position through the first six weeks of the NFL season.
However, once his role expanded in the middle of the season, Gibbs entered the league-winner territory in 2023. From Week 7 through the end of the season, Gibbs was the overall RB4 in PPR formats behind only San Francisco 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey, Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB Rachaad White, and New York Jets RB Breece Hall with 1,012 total yards and 11 TDs.
One commonality between the other three players ahead of him during that span is that not one of those other three ball carriers contended with anyone for touches in their respective backfields. During that time frame alone, Montgomery swiped seven rushing touchdowns and 135 total touches away from Gibbs.
Gibbs’ advanced metrics speak to his excellent production last year, finishing the year inside the top 10 at the position for yards after contact per attempt (2.4), broken tackles (21), and yards per carry (5.2) for backs with more than 180 carries last year.
A large concern for Gibbs’ shareholders heading into his rookie season was his usage as a goal-line back. Fortunately, the Lions did not shy away from giving Gibbs the football inside the five-yard line in 2023, where he saw eight carries and scored five times last season.
Some would argue that Montgomery’s presence limits Gibbs’ upside enough to push him outside of the top four at the position, but his top-shelf per-touch efficiency and expanded role in this high-powered offense should give him enough weekly touches to make him a rock-solid RB1 in 2024.
Gibbs’ current ADP sits at No. 12 overall, the RB4 off the board, which makes him either a late first-round pick or an early second-round selection in fantasy drafts.
Ultimately, Gibbs’ expanded role over the back half of the year certainly suggests he will see enough opportunities in a high-powered offense to warrant this draft price. If his role continues to expand while Montgomery’s weekly touch count is slightly reduced, Gibbs does have an outside shot to finish as the RB1 overall in 2024.
– Derek Tate, Fantasy Football Analyst
David Montgomery’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR fantasy Points: 237.8 (200.3 Non-PPR)
- Rushing Yards: 1083.6
- Rushing Touchdowns: 10.3
- Receptions: 37.5
- Receiving Yards: 295.7
- Receiving Touchdowns: 0.4
Through the first five weeks of the 2023 NFL season, Montgomery appeared like the most valuable fantasy RB in Detroit.
Despite missing one game, Montgomery was the RB8 in full-PPR formats with 88 carries for 371 yards and six rushing TDs through the first five weeks of the year. During this same timeframe, Gibbs was RB32 with just 39 carries for 179 yards and no scores.
As fate would have it, Montgomery got injured against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 6, which gave Gibbs an opportunity for an expanded role in his absence.
Unfortunately for Montgomery, Gibbs seized this opportunity and made a compelling enough case to see a significantly expanded role once he returned to the lineup in Week 10. From that point on, Gibbs looked like the preferred option in the backfield, albeit with Montgomery still having a very valuable fantasy role in the Detroit offense.
Detroit Lions Fantasy Stats From Weeks 10-18
- Gibbs: 106 carries, 546 rushing yards, 24 receptions, 151 receiving yards, 9 TDs (RB5)
- Montgomery: 125 carries, 630 rushing yards, 10 receptions, 51 receiving yards, 7 TDs (RB13)
It’s hard to imagine a world where Gibbs doesn’t see his role expand in 2024. Yet, Gibbs’ fantasy managers may be trying to fool themselves if they believe Montgomery is going to be completely phased out this year either.
Ultimately, this high-powered Lions offense generating excellent game scripts and red-zone opportunities behind a great offensive line is likely to make both players fantasy producers again in 2024. Montgomery’s ADP of No. 62 overall as the RB21 off the board in the sixth round feels like a great value for a player who has seen 200+ carries every single year of his NFL career in an explosive offense.
Other running backs in this range like James Conner, Zamir White, and Rhamondre Stevenson all have some question marks on their fantasy profile, which makes Montgomery a solid investment in this range.
– Analyst Name, Fantasy Football Analyst