Having clinched the NFC’s No. 1 seed in the final week of the season, the Detroit Lions will be watching Wild Card Weekend from the comfort of their sofas and awaiting their first opponents of the postseason to present themselves. The Lions may know their Divisional Round opponents as soon as the first NFC Wild Card game on Sunday, or they may have to wait until the conclusion of Monday Night Football.
With the help of the PFN NFL Playoff Predictor, let’s examine what the Lions’ playoff scenarios are and who could be their potential opponents in the Divisional Round.
What Are the Detroit Lions’ Playoff Scenarios?
The Lions have four potential opponents out of the six playing on Wild Card Weekend: the Los Angeles Rams, Minnesota Vikings, Washington Commanders, and Green Bay Packers. They cannot face either the Philadelphia Eagles or the Tampa Bay Buccaneers until the AFC Championship Game at the earliest.
The NFL playoff bracket reseeds on each side after each round. Essentially, that means the highest remaining seed will always face the lowest remaining seed. As the No. 1 seed, the Lions are guaranteed to be the highest-remaining seed in the NFC and, therefore, will always play the lowest remaining seed in the Divisional Round.
With that logic, it is impossible for the No. 1 seed to face either the No. 2 (Eagles) or No. 3 (Buccaneers) seeds in the Divisional Round. Assuming they both win, they are guaranteed to be the second- and third-highest remaining seeds of the four teams in the Divisional Round bracket.
That leaves us with the four teams that the Lions can face. Based on our win probabilities, the order of likelihood for these matchups is as follows:
- Packers (No. 7) at Lions (No. 1) – 41.0%
- Commanders (No. 6) at Lions (No. 1) – 26.6%
- Vikings (No. 5) at Lions (No. 1) – 17.8%
- Rams (No. 4) at Lions (No. 1) – 14.6%
It may seem unusual that the lowest seed has the highest likelihood of facing the Lions, but that is because four possible outcomes out of the eight combinations on Wild Card Weekend would result in the Packers heading to Detroit. A win for the Packers in Philadelphia will see them heading to Ford Field, regardless of the other results.
The Commanders are the second-most likely team to make the trip to Detroit. Of the eight potential outcomes, two see Washington playing the Lions. If the Commanders win and the Packers lose, then it will be Jayden Daniels leading his team into the likely ferocious atmosphere under the roof in Michigan.
If the Vikings are to head to Detroit, they need to beat the Rams on Monday Night Football. They will know going into that game where they will be heading as the results of the Packers and Commanders will determine if the Vikings are the lowest remaining seed in the NFC bracket.
The Rams’ scenario for heading to Detroit is essentially the same as the Vikings’. If they beat Minnesota and both Green Bay and Washington lose, the Rams will play in Ford Field in the Divisional Round.
The NFC bracket will start to take shape right from the very first game of the three. The Eagles and Packers matchup in Lincoln Financial Field will control the entire fate of the Divisional Round. If the Packers win, then that locks them in as facing the Lions in the Divisional Round.
If the Eagles win, all eyes will go to Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Fla. A Commanders win would ensure they go to Ford Field. A Buccaneers win would leave the Lions’ opponent down to the result of Monday Night Football.
Looking into the future, if the Lions win in the Divisional Round, they are guaranteed to host the NFC Championship Game. As the No. 1 seed, the Lions cannot go on the road in the playoffs until the neutral-site game at the Super Bowl in New Orleans.