The Detroit Lions have been the class of the NFC all season. Below we take a look at what Detroit needed to punch its ticket to the postseason, as well as the overall playoff picture in the NFC.
Lions Playoff and Clinching Scenario Updates | Week 14
Thursday Night Football Results
- Detroit Lions (12-1) def. Green Bay Packers (9-4)
With Detroit’s win over the Packers, they have clinched a playoff berth. Below, you can see what the Lions’ playoff-clinching scenarios were heading into their Thursday Night Football game.
Can the Lions Now Get the No. 1 Seed in the NFC?
According to PFN’s Playoff Predictor, the Lions have a 58.1% chance to earn the No. 1 seed in the NFC, the highest of any team. Here are all the teams with greater than a 1% chance to earn the top seed in the NFC:
- Detroit Lions: 58.1%
- Philadelphia Eagles: 20.8%
- Minnesota Vikings: 18.8%
What Were the Lions’ Playoff-Clinching Scenarios Entering This Week?
The simplest scenario for the Lions to clinch a playoff spot is to win its game vs. the Packers. However, there are numerous other permutations that would get the Lions in should they lose:
Detroit clinches a playoff berth with:
- DET win or tie
- ATL loss or tie + SEA-ARI tie
- ATL loss or tie + ARI loss + LAR loss or tie
- ATL loss or tie + LAR loss or tie + PHI win
- ATL loss or tie + SEA loss + PHI win
- ATL loss or tie + ARI loss + PHI win + DET clinches at least a tie in strength of victory tiebreaker over PHI
- TB loss or tie + SEA-ARI tie
- TB loss or tie + ARI loss + LAR loss or tie
- TB loss or tie + LAR loss or tie + PHI win
- TB loss or tie + SEA loss + PHI win
NFC Playoff Scenarios and Standings
Below are the NFC standings entering Week 14 after Thursday Night Football. The top seven seeds are in the playoffs:
- Detroit Lions (12-1)
- Philadelphia Eagles (10-2)
- Seattle Seahawks (7-5)
- Atlanta Falcons (6-6)
- Minnesota Vikings (10-2)
- Green Bay Packers (9-4)
- Washington Commanders (8-5)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6)
- Arizona Cardinals (6-6)
- Los Angeles Rams (6-6)
- San Francisco 49ers (5-7)
- Dallas Cowboys (5-7)
- New Orleans Saints (4-8)
- Chicago Bears (4-8)
- Carolina Panthers (3-9)
- New York Giants (2-10)
PFN’s Pregame Breakdown of Lions-Packers
Detroit’s Missing Offensive Piece
All-Pro Lions right tackle Penei Sewell makes most of the offensive line headlines in the Motor City. He’s an outstanding player, while Lions OC Ben Johnson hasn’t been afraid to get Sewell involved on a hook-and-ladder lateral (Week 6) or a potential pass attempt (Week 13).
But don’t sleep on Detroit left tackle Taylor Decker, who was sidelined by a knee injury during the club’s Thanksgiving Day win over the Chicago Bears. Decker isn’t practicing ahead of the Lions’ Week 14 matchup against the Packers and will be inactive.
Detroit boasts the NFL’s best offensive line, a unit that’s remained effective even when Decker has missed time. Still, Decker’s absence will represent a clear downgrade for the Lions’ passing and rushing attacks:
Lions Offense With and Without Taylor Decker
Passing efficiency
With Decker: 0.26 EPA per dropback (first)
Without Decker: 0.03 EPA per dropback (16th)
Passing success rate
With Decker: 55.1% (first)
Without Decker: 45.7% (16th)
Rushing efficiency
With Decker: 0.10 EPA per rush (first)
Without Decker: -0.03 EPA per rush (14th)
Rushing success rate
With Decker: 48.4% (first)
Without Decker: 41.7% (10th)
Rushing yards before contact
With Decker: 1.77 (fourth)
Without Decker 1.32 (19th)
Without Decker in the starting lineup, the Lions go from the NFL’s most electric offense to a middling unit. Fill-in Detroit left tackle Dan Skipper has allowed nine pressures on just 85 pass-blocking reps in 2024. It’s a small sample size, but Skipper ranks bottom-10 league-wide in pressure rate allowed among linemen with at least 75 pass-blocking snaps.
Jordan Love Is Lethal Against Pressure
Few quarterbacks have been as productive when faced with pressure as the Packers’ Jordan Love. He ranks fifth among all QBs in EPA per dropback and seventh in passing success rate when pressured.
Love averages an NFL-leading 8.7 yards per attempt under pressure and 8.1 yards per attempt from a clean pocket. He’s the only quarterback in the league averaging more yards when pressured than when not.
Obviously, that doesn’t mean the Lions should throw their hands up and not send pass rushers after Love on Thursday night. Like all quarterbacks, Love’s efficiency and consistency are much improved from a clean pocket.
Still, Love is more than capable of making plays outside of structure when pressure gets in his face. He’s been willing to take shots when pressured, too — his 11.1 average depth of target under pressure ranks third behind Anthony Richardson and Jayden Daniels.