After taking down the division-rival Green Bay Packers on Sunday, the Detroit Lions are 7-1 and in command of the NFC North.
PFN’s Playoff Predictor gives Dan Campbell’s club a 22.7% chance of winning the Super Bowl. No other club in the league has a better than 17% chance of claiming this season’s Lombardi.
Are the Lions the NFC’s best hope of preventing a Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl three-peat? Here’s how Detroit should handle the 2024 NFL trade deadline.
Lions Are Super Bowl Favorites After Beating Packers in Week 9
The Lions have now won six straight games, with their Week 2 20-16 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers still residing as the lone blemish on their 2024 ledger.
Detroit picked up a critical division win against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 7, storming back from an early 10-0 deficit to win 31-29. Jake Bates had to hit a game-winning 44-yard field goal with 15 seconds remaining for the Lions to escape against the Vikings.
Sunday’s NFC North victory wasn’t nearly the same kind of nail-biter.
Amon-Ra St. Brown with the #OnePride appreciation after the Lions 3rd-straight win at Lambeau Field! #LambeauLeap pic.twitter.com/Z3foMfCD87
— StaceyDales (@StaceyDales) November 4, 2024
The Lions took a 17-3 halftime lead into halftime after safety Kerby Joseph picked off Jordan Love for his league-leading sixth interception, then ran it back for a 27-yard defensive score.
Jahmyr Gibbs’ 15-yard touchdown on Detroit’s first third-quarter drive made the score 24-3. Green Bay hit a third-quarter field goal and scored late in the fourth to make the final score 24-14, but Sunday’s game never felt that close.
The Lions now hold a 1.5-game lead over the Vikings (5-2) and a two-game lead over the Packers (6-3). Detroit, of course, also owns tiebreakers over both clubs.
While the NFC North race isn’t over, Jared Goff and Co. are the clear favorites after Week 9. PFN’s model gives the Lions a 64.6% chance of winning its second straight division crown. Minnesota is at 26.4%, Green Bay is at 8.9%, and Chicago is at 0.1%.
Detroit Linked to Browns’ Za’Darius Smith at NFL Trade Deadline
While Detroit’s defense was essential to the club’s Week 9 victory, the Lions posted their lowest pressure rate (25.6%) of the season.
Before Sunday, Aaron Glenn’s unit hadn’t put up a single-game pressure rate below 30% this year. Their previous low came against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 3, when Detroit pressured Kyler Murray on 32.4% of his dropbacks.
The Lions are playing without Aidan Hutchinson, who was the league’s leading contender for Defensive Player of the Year honors when he fractured his tibia and fibula in Week 6. Detroit is also missing offseason addition Marcus Davenport, who went down with a season-ending triceps injury in Week 3.
Hutchinson might be able to return if the Lions advance to the Super Bowl, but the club may need EDGE help to get there.
#Lions HC Dan Campbell on whether a trade could happen soon:
Campbell smiles: "Yeah. Could be."
Reporter: "Seriously? Has he (GM Brad Holmes) come to you with something?"
Campbell jumps up and down: "Yeah! Could be!"
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) October 28, 2024
Detroit has been strongly linked to Cleveland Browns pass rusher Za’Darius Smith, who’s admitted he’d like to return to the NFC North and face a pair of his old teams, the Packers and Vikings.
While Smith’s sack totals have fluctuated over the past few seasons, his pressure rate has mostly remained steady, sticking between 14% and 17% each season since 2022. He’d give the Lions more juice off the edge instantaneously.
Pro Football Talk reported Sunday that Detroit could officially acquire Smith as soon as Sunday night or Monday. If that deal falls through, what other edge rushers could Lions GM Brad Holmes target?
Jadeveon Clowney, Carolina Panthers
Jadeveon Clowney seems to be getting better with age. He picked up new moves with Baltimore Ravens pass-rushing coach Chuck Smith in 2023 and has maintained a 13+% pressure rate with the Carolina Panthers this season.
Did we mention Clowney also ranks No. 1 among edge defenders in run-stop win rate?
Cap space isn’t an issue for Detroit, but Clowney is only earning a league-minimum base salary. The Lions would also have Clowney under contract in 2025 for $11.8 million, $2 million of which is fully guaranteed.
Arden Key, Tennessee Titans
No single player can replace Detroit’s lost EDGE production, but the Tennesee Titans’ Arden Key might be able to help. The 28-year-old has always been a valuable rotational rusher, posting at least 4.5 sacks each season from 2021 to 2023 while playing for three different teams. Key is a little light (240 pounds) for the Lions’ system, but he plays with a tenacity that Campbell and Glenn will enjoy.
Detroit would owe Key a little less than $1 million for the rest of the 2024 campaign. The Lions would also have him under contract in 2025 via a de facto $7 million option.
Chase Young, New Orleans Saints
Chase Young is no stranger to being moved at the NFL trade deadline. The Washington Commanders traded the former No. 2 overall pick at this time a year ago, sending Young to the San Francisco 49ers in exchange for a third-round pick.
Young only has two sacks for the New Orleans Saints in 2024, but his 12.6% pressure rate is just a tick below where he was for the 49ers during the second half of last season. He’s producing more pressure than Maxx Crosby (12.4%) or Kyle Van Noy (12.3%), each of whom has six-plus sacks.
Unlike Smith, Clowney, and Key, Young is a pending free agent. He’d likely be a pure rental, but Detroit could hope for a 2026 compensatory pick if Young lands a significant free agent deal in 2025.
Calais Campbell, Miami Dolphins
The 2-6 Miami Dolphins have no reason to hang onto 38-year-old Calais Campbell for the rest of this year, while Campbell would likely welcome a move to a contender.
He wouldn’t come to Detroit simply to offer experience — Campbell is still good! He led the Atlanta Falcons with 6.5 sacks in 2023 and is getting after quarterbacks at the same rate as Clowney this year. Campbell is playing on the interior with Miami, but Atlanta deployed him as a true EDGE last year.