The Detroit Lions will face the Indianapolis Colts in Week 12. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Lions and Colts skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 12 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Detroit Lions Start-Sit Advice
Jared Goff, QB
When Jared Goff is given time and playing with confidence, this offense is poetry in motion. He now has five games this season with multiple passing scores and no more than five incompletions, the first player to do that in the 2000s. In fact, the only other QB with five such regular season games since the start of 2021 is Lamar Jackson.
The Colts concede the sixth-highest red-zone completion percentage (65.2%), a flaw that allows me to elevate a pocket-locked QB like Goff inside of my top 10. He’s posted three finishes inside the top five this year, and while I don’t think we get there this week, I’m starting him where I have him (my Week 12 rank: QB7).
David Montgomery, RB
David Montgomery has as many multi-score games this season as contests without a touchdown, and you could argue that he is just as valuable as the more explosive Jahmyr Gibbs.
In the Week 11 steamrolling of the Jaguars, Monty had four carries and a touchdown on the opening drive, a set of plays where Gibbs didn’t record a single official touch.
I prefer Gibbs in this specific matchup because the Colts often sell out to stop the run (one of four defenses allowing under one yard per carry before contact), and he’s the one with more creative usage. However, both of these backs are deserving of lineup-lock status weekly and should be considered viable DFS building blocks.
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB
Is it just me, or have we seen this before?
Jahmyr Gibbs:
- 4.36-second speed
- 5.6 yards per carry in college
- 54.5% NFL snap share
- 20.2% production over expectation in the NFL
Lamar Miller:
- 4.40-second speed
- 5.7 yards per carry in college
- 61.1% snap share in 2015
- 18.2% production over expectation in 2015
Gibbs posted his fourth top-10 finish of the season last week against the Jaguars, showcasing his wide range of skills in the process. His acceleration allows him to create opportunities that don’t appear there, and that unique skill has allowed him to hold an RB22 floor this season.
Gibbs is a splash play waiting to happen. He has a 20+ yard gain both on the ground and through the air in consecutive games and can be counted on as an elite fantasy option.
It’s rare to turn a profit like this on an early-round pick. You made a good call in August, now it’s on you to capitalize with a 2024 title.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR
Since Week 3, 26 players have seen more targets than Amon-Ra St. Brown. But only five have more receptions, and Ja’Marr Chase is the only player with touchdown catches over that stretch.
During this scoring streak (eight straight games, a franchise record), St. Brown has three times as many TDs (nine) as targets that have hit the ground (three, 51 catches on 54 targets).
I’m running out of ways to praise this man, and if Dan Campbell is going to leave him on the field to help extend a 36-point lead, even game scripts can’t stop him. St. Brown has the potential to carry your fantasy team to a title this season and is going to cost you a pick in the first half of Round 1 in August.
Jameson Williams, WR
I don’t want to cost myself a job, but shouldn’t a fantasy site just hire Jared Goff and ask him which Lions are going to be featured?
Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta have had their ups and downs this season, not because they aren’t talented but because Detroit scores too fast in other avenues.
Case in point: You likely weren’t feeling great about playing Williams at halftime last week. He hadn’t done anything and the Lions were up 22 points. As a Williams manager, I know I was already assuming a dud week at intermission and seeing if I could tweak my lineups for the late games to make up for the sub-par performance.
Four plays into the second half, Jamo added 14.9 PPR points to his afternoon, and all was right in the world. In eight games this season, Williams has cleared 75 receiving yards five times, but he also has a pair of single-digit performances.
If we are assuming that LaPorta is back, there is a floor to strongly consider, but with the Colts creating pressure when not blitzing at the fourth-lowest rate this season, Goff should have plenty of time to pick apart this secondary down the field.
You know the risk that comes with play — it’s something I’m willing to overlook in a week where the expectation is for Detroit to score 29 points.
Sam LaPorta, TE
Fun fact: Since the Week 5 bye, Sam LaPorta only has finished inside the top 10 or outside of the top 25.
OK, so maybe that’s not as much “fun” as it is a numeric way to describe your disappointment.
LaPorta sat out last week’s dismantling of Jacksonville (props to you if you streamed Brock Wright’s touchdown as a backup option) with a shoulder injury, the first DNP of his young career, and not a great sign for his loyal fantasy managers.
A less-than-full-strength LaPorta is a concern given that the 9-1 Lions are likely to be more forward-looking than most teams down the stretch.
We’ve seen some breadcrumbs laid before the injury (26.3% on-field target share from Weeks 8-10, up from a putrid 10.2% prior), and that’s enough reason for me to rank him as my TE11 this season, sandwiched between Jonnu Smith and Pat Freiermuth.
Cade Otton was a popular midseason add, but assuming all reports remain optimistic on Mike Evans, LaPorta would be my play, health permitting if you roster both.
Indianapolis Colts Start-Sit Advice
Anthony Richardson, QB
Anthony Richardson returned to the starting role and looked reasonably viable against the Jets. In the win, he completed five of seven passes (71.4%) when blitzed, a big step forward from his 28.1% completion percentage in such spots prior.
Of course, this is a tiny sample. We are also nitpicking the least important part of the fantasy profile.
Since the start of last season, Richardson has more rushing touchdowns than Aaron Jones and the same number (seven) as Lamar Jackson — the man has played 11 games of a possible 28 over that stretch.
The first touchdown last week was a two-yarder where he threw a stiff arm behind the line of scrimmage and plowed into paydirt — nothing we haven’t seen from him in the past, but great to see a lack of hesitation.
Passing very much remains a work in progress, and that’s going to prevent me from ranking Richardson as a top-12 option. But his skill set keeps him in that conversation, especially in a game where Indianapolis is chasing points.
The five highest-scoring QBs against the Lions this season have all run for at least 29 yards, giving Richardson truthers some hope that this is a spike week. We know that we are looking at a boom/bust option with as wide a range of outcomes at the position as anyone in the league.
Jonathan Taylor, RB
The Jets sold out to stop the run last week in an effort to make Anthony Richardson beat them, and it worked — kind of.
They slowed Jonathan Taylor and held the former All-Pro to just 57 yards on 24 carries (2.4 yards per attempt), but they did end up losing the game. I think this approach could be one that is utilized against Indy moving forward, but maybe not in this spot where the Lions will want to prevent the Colts from matching their chunk plays.
When it comes to Taylor, the change under center off of Joe Flacco should have you encouraged.
With Anthony Richardson on the field:
- 3.4% production over expectation
- 41.7% conversion rate on rushes
Without Richardson on the field:
- 27.2% production below expectation
- 12.5% conversion rate on rushes
Taylor is going to have to produce like a star if the Colts are going to keep this game tight, and I think they give him every chance to do so.
Alec Pierce, WR
That’s now consecutive games from Alec Pierce with at least 70 receiving yards, the first time he’s done that since October 2022. Pierce’s skill set doesn’t translate as a stable one week over week, but if Indianapolis is going to stay competitive in this spot, it’s because Anthony Richardson is picking on a Lions secondary that allows the third-most WR receptions of 15+ yards per game (4.6).
Josh Downs, Michael Pittman Jr., and Adonai Mitchell could be the recipients of those looks. As could the father of three who is sitting in the fifth row.
Or it could be Pierce again. He’s among the five most matchup-dependent plays in the sport — not his matchup, yours.
If your matchup is expected to come down to the wire, I’d look elsewhere. But not all weeks are like that. If you’re in chase mode (be it record, total points for a tiebreaker, etc.), this is exactly the type of dice you should be rolling.
I have Pierce ranked as my third Colts receiver and prefer Noah Brown and Xavier Worthy if we are looking at big-play threats. Still, there’s no denying that there is an upside in Pierce’s profile that could land him as a WR2 this weekend.
Josh Downs, WR
Josh Downs was able to pay off your loyalty last week, but be careful in assuming that the Anthony Richardson version of this offense puts any receiver in a position to be consistent. Downs produced last week in part because he pulled down a 31-yard pass on the first drive, an open window that Richardson nearly missed. The limitations under center are impossible to ignore and they project to give Downs an issue sooner rather than later:
- Week 8 at Houston Texans: 14.5 expected PPR points
- Week 9 at Minnesota Vikings: 14.5 expected PPR points
- Week 10 vs. Buffalo Bills: 18.8 expected PPR points
- Week 11 at New York Jets: 8.4 expected PPR points
That’s a significant dip, and while the actual box score didn’t reflect the change, proceed with caution against the best defense when it comes to defending red-zone passes (51.4 passer rating). Downs is my WR26 this week, a viable Flex play but not the star that he looked like under Joe Flacco.
Michael Pittman Jr., WR
The vibes around Indianapolis are better today than they were this time last week. Anthony Richardson showed signs of life in a tough spot against the Jets. Now, that didn’t mean big numbers for Michael Pittman Jr., but he did see eight targets. That’s at least a step in the right direction.
Production with Anthony Richardson, 2024:
- 27.2% below expectation
- 1.17 PPR points per target
Production with Joe Flacco, 2024:
- 3.6% below expectation
- 1.69 PPR points per target
I still prefer Pittman with Flacco under center and believe that he has been passed by Josh Downs as the WR1 in this offense. That said, I’m leaving the light on when it comes to a potential return to Flex value with time.
He could get there this week with Indy likely playing from behind, but I have my eyes more set on the finishing kick to the season (Titans/Giants in Weeks 16-17 with a bonus of the Jaguars in Week 18 if your league extends that deep).
We can circle back to Pittman this time next week should he see another eight targets this weekend. If Richardson is close to league-average as a passer on Sunday, I’ll be considering Pittman as a viable Flex option next week at New England.