Betting the NFL is hard enough, so why not be really right when you nail a game? That is the potential a same game parlay gives you, as you’re allowed to tie correlated legs together to create a greater payout. Of course, sportsbooks are wise to this and hold more juice on these types of bets.
But if you’re anything like me, you’re willing to buy a lottery ticket for these prime-time games. Today and for the entirety of the season, I’ll be giving you some numbers to consider in making your same game parlay picks and predictions for every island game!
On a normal day, I will provide you with a single bet, the story I’m telling for the game of focus. But this…this friends, is no “normal day.” This is opening day, a pseudo-holiday as far as I’m concerned. With that in mind, I’m taking you through an SGP for whatever result it is that you want for the Detroit Lions vs. Kansas City Chiefs.
You’re welcome, America.
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[tallysight url=”https://tallysight.com/widget/offers/pro-football-network/dynamic/sportsbooks:1,2,11,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10/promos:1?id=7f0ebb0d-3e1d-42af-a05a-b3d790d3ce69″]Detroit Lions vs. Kansas City Chiefs
- Spread
Chiefs -4.5 - Moneyline
Lions +170, Chiefs -205 - Total
52
Place your bets for the Detroit Lions vs. Kansas City Chiefs on the widget below!
[tallysight url=”https://tallysight.com/new/widget/tile/nfl/org:pro-football-network/event:2023-24-week-1/topic:detroit-lions-kansas-city-chiefs/variant:2?id=9791f399-da23-477d-9d56-9630787e6aa7″]Result: Chiefs Cover
As you continue to read my betting content, you’ll notice that, unless picking on a total specifically, I’m far more likely to target a team total under than the game as a whole, which is the case here.
Over the past decade, unders are 38-22 (63.3%) when a team favored by at least six points in a game with a total of 50+ points covers. That’s the situation we find ourselves in for the season opener. But because I don’t want to lose a pro-Chiefs bet on them lighting up the scoreboard, I’m using this as a way to justify taking the Lions to go under their implied number.
In this fantasy football era, we associate Chiefs wins with Patrick Mahomes going off. Nothing wrong with that, but it might just surprise you that in their past 10 covers, Kansas City’s running backs have punched in 11 scores.
When you consider that Jerick McKinnon has one rushing touchdown in his 30 games with the Chiefs and that Clyde Edwards-Helaire has seemingly played himself out of favor (one game with more than 10 carries since early December 2021), Isiah Pacheco is the percentage play to pay this off.
As does @KyleSoppePFN … and @KyleYNFL should too#TablePounds4Pacheco https://t.co/7h6nmz0UXT
— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) August 31, 2023
Same Game Parlay Pick: Chiefs -4.5, Lions under 23.5 points, Pacheco anytime TD
Odds: (+400 at DraftKings)*
*If you’re bold, +1400 if you make the Pacheco TD the first of the game.
Result: Chiefs Win But Don’t Cover
The “win without covering” bet is walking a thin line, but less so for the Chiefs than others, as they have 18 such instances over the past three seasons (second place has 10). Included in that sample are 11 games with a projected total in the 50s and 10 at home.
In those games, Kansas City has been outscored by eight points in first halves while holding a 65-point edge over their opponents in the second half. That puts us in a position to back the Lions early, and it’s likely that if that comes through, Jared Goff is a big reason why.
MORE: NFL Week 1 Picks and Predictions 2023
Goff averaged 22.5 completions per game last season. In eight of the nine instances in which a QB facing the Chiefs in a spot like this (loss but cover) completed over 22 passes, he threw for multiple scores
If you’re feeling spicy, seven of the nine QBs in that spot racked up at least 275 yards through the air.
Same Game Parlay Pick: Chiefs ML, Lions +4.5, Goff 2+ TD passes (+800 at DraftKings)
Result: Lions Cover
This is a touch different, as it doesn’t require the Chiefs to win outright. During the Mahomes era, overs connect at a 60.5% rate (23-15-1) when Kansas City fails to cover. And because it’s hard to pick Detroit to cover without scoring a decent amount, I’m using this note for the Lions’ team total.
During his career in Detroit, Goff has averaged 279.1 passing yards in games against future playoff teams that go over the projected total (308.5 if you exclude games against the NFC East). That friends, is what we are calling for here, so sign me up for his passing yards!
Same Game Parlay Pick: Lions +4.5, Lions over 23.5 points, Goff over 279.5 passing yards (+450 at DraftKings)
Result: Lions Win Outright
Think about it. These two teams have had forever to prepare for one another. I’ve never worked in the NFL, but I would assume that the preparation process looks far down the road, which would help explain this trend.
2021-22 under rates when the underdog wins outright:
- September: 63.4%
- October: 50%
- November: 47.6%
So if we’re backing the Lions, it stands to reason that the Chiefs won’t make it to their implied total. Detroit has eight outright wins as a ‘dog under Jared Goff, and Amon-Ra St. Brown (career: 11.0 yards per catch) has at least six catches in seven of those contests, averaging 10.3 targets in the process.
If you’re looking to juice things up a bit, I’ve got you covered. The Lions have lost the first half in just one of those eight games.
Same Game Parlay Pick: Lions ML, Chiefs under 28.5 points, St. Brown over 64.5 receiving yards (+400 at DraftKings)*
*If you add in DET (+0.5) first half, your payout jumps to +575.
Bet Type: Conservative
Some people want lottery tickets, others want to try to free-roll Friday’s happy hour. The latter is the objective here, so we are on the Chiefs’ moneyline. During the Mahomes era, Kansas City has won 27 regular-season games that check all of the following boxes:
Non-Divisional Game
- Favored by more than 3 points
- Over/Under north of 45 points
In 24 of those games (88.9%), No. 15 threw multiple TD passes. No shocker there, and I can think of worse things to do on the first night of the NFL season than to bet on Mahomes.
In this story, we have the Lions playing catch up, and Amon-Ra St. Brown is Detroit’s clearest path to doing that successfully. In the nine Detroit losses he has played the majority of snaps in since his December 2021 breakout, The Sun God is hauling in 7.3 passes per game.
MORE: Parlay Calculator | Betting Odds Calculator
If we assume seven receptions, we need just over 9.2 yards per catch to cash his prop here … a threshold he has cleared in nine of his past 10 games!
Easy game. This is the best way I found to get a Chiefs moneyline bet down to even money.
Same Game Parlay Pick: Chiefs moneyline, Mahomes 2+ TD passes, Amon-Ra St. Brown over 64.5 receiving yards (+155 at DraftKings)
Bet Type: YOLO
You’ve made it this far, so you’ve earned yourself a statistically backed bomb. Or maybe you scrolled through the first 1,000 words. Whatever the case may be, you’re looking for a “brag to my buddies” sort of hit. Sportsbooks give you long odds because these bets aren’t likely, but that doesn’t mean we can’t try!
Overs are 5-0 when Mahomes starts a season opener, a good place to start when you consider that most sites will only have “over” or “yes” bets for these parlays. How Mahomes racks up his yardage looks a little different in games that are higher scoring than expected. Here are his per-game averages on balls thrown 15 yards (deep) by total result.
Over
- 3.9 completions
- 8.2 attempts
Under
- 2.0 completions
- 4.3 attempts
Interesting. That trend is going to steer us off of a big Travis Kelce week (aDOT down in each of the past five seasons) and thus allow us to build this thing up!
While the Chiefs have plenty of similarly skilled targets, there is little denying that Marquez Valdes-Scantling (15.6-yard career aDOT) holds a specific role. That’s not just a big number for this team, but it’s tops in the league by 12.1% since he entered (minimum 300 targets). Even better? The majority of MVS’ career TD receptions have come on such passes.
I’m taking his yardage alternate props and for him to score. If you’re really in the business of swinging for the fences, you could call for MVS to score the first touchdown of the season.
But we need a little more. You’re following PFN Bets and will get plenty of insight on coin flip bets.
The reigning Super Bowl champion is 14-7-1 ATS in season openers since 2001, and that’s great for adding a leg, but the devil is in the details. Only one of the past nine reigning champs won the first quarter of their first game. Now we’re onto something.
Story: The Lions come out looking good, MVS whips #ChiefsKingdom into a frenzy, and Kansas City starts this season how they ended last!
Same Game Parlay Pick: Over 52.5 points, MVS TD, MVS over 60+ receiving yards, Chiefs -4.5 points, Lions Q1 +1.5
Odds: +2200 at DraftKings with MVS anytime TD, or +15000 with MVS first TD