The fantasy football landscape is in a constant state of motion. It is the Saturday of the penultimate week of the season, and we still have unexpected events that shift fantasy values. After over a month on the practice squad, the Buffalo Bills elevated Leonard Fournette to the active roster. Is he worth picking up in fantasy leagues?
Should You Start Leonard Fournette in Week 16?
For most of the season, the Bills have been rolling out a backfield trio of James Cook, Latavius Murray, and Ty Johnson. Unless the Bills elevated Fournette to not play him, one of them is set to be inactive tonight. It certainly won’t be Cook.
Last week, the Bills ran the ball 39 times with running backs. Josh Allen attempted just 15 passes. If something similar happens again, which is not impossible given the Bills are double-digit favorites, there’s a world where all three backs have some level of startability.
To be clear, it was the massive volume that allowed all three backs to reach 6.8 fantasy points or more last week. Anything resembling their normal run/pass split would make it very difficult for any back beyond Cook to have fantasy value … unless one of the backups falls into the end zone like Murray did last week.
Fournette hasn’t played football since Jan. 16, 2023. When we last saw him, he ran the ball five times for 11 yards and looked completely cooked.
We’ve seen running backs come off the street and excel before. But they are often journeymen or unproven younger backs. My take on Fournette is rather simple here.
If he were good enough to play professional football at a high level, he would’ve gotten a job when the season started. If he were good enough to play professional football at a high level, he wouldn’t have sat on the Bills’ practice squad in favor of Johnson and 33-year-old Murray for over a month.
The variety of fantasy football formats is seemingly endless. I am sure there is someone out there in a 20-team league with deep starting rosters that could consider starting Fournette.
For the 99% of you playing in relatively normal formats, under no circumstances should you be putting Fournette in your lineups for the first time all season in the fantasy semifinals.
Trending Start/Sit Searches for Fournette
Should You Start Fournette or Tyjae Spears?
Injuries have forced me to consider starting Tyjae Spears in a league. My options are Spears, Chase Brown, AJ Dillon, and Roschon Johnson.
None of these options are particularly exciting. But all of them are better than Fournette.
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Spears just made the top 36 in the PFN Consensus Rankings. With Geno Smith back for the Seahawks, this is a game where the Titans could see negative game script and be forced to throw. That puts Spears on the field.
Spears has a defined role and a 4-5 point floor. Fournette’s floor is 0. Start Spears.
Should You Start Fournette or AJ Dillon?
This one may end up being moot because there is no guarantee Dillon can play. He still has a broken thumb that didn’t just heal in a week.
Although he was limited at practice all week, practicing with a broken thumb is much easier than playing in a game where defenders are hitting you and trying to swat at the ball, inevitably contacting the broken thumb. Additionally, Dillon may struggle to catch the ball with his thumb, lowering his floor and ceiling.
If Dillon is active, he will have touchdown upside against a Panthers defense that has allowed the most rushing touchdowns to running backs. That, alone, makes him more valuable than Fournette.
Given that Fournette plays tonight, if Dillon is inactive, you won’t be able to start Fournette in his place. That’s perfectly fine because whatever other alternative you have is a better option than Fournette.
Should You Pick Up and Stash Fournette from the Waiver Wire?
Given where we are in the season, bench spots and roster depth are largely meaningless. With two weeks left, the only thing that matters is your starting lineup.
If you have a player on your bench you know you probably won’t need, and he’s also someone your opponents aren’t going to start against you, there’s no harm in dropping him to stash Fournette and see what happens.
Maybe I’m totally wrong, and Fournette is completely rejuvenated, leading him to earn a 40% opportunity share and the primary passing down role. That’s the ceiling outcome for Fournette. It’s a low probability, but it’s not impossible.
It’s unlikely there’s anything overly exciting on the waiver wire at this point in the season. While I struggle to see any scenario in which fantasy managers feel confident starting Fournette next week, if the risk is zero, feel free to take the shot. You can always drop him at about 11:30 p.m. ET tonight.
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