A lot goes into winning a fantasy football league. One of the biggest keys is balancing safety and upside to achieve the ultimate balance of a high weekly floor alongside a high-potential ceiling.
It is tough to maximize upside in the first couple of rounds, so the focus there needs to be more on avoiding busts than anything else. It is in the third through 10th rounds that you can really start to maximize that upside and find players who could significantly outperform their draft stock.
That is the case with our list below. We have identified some players being selected in that region of the draft in 10- or 12-team leagues who could win you your league.
Which Players Could Win You Your Fantasy League in 2024?
David Montgomery, RB, Detroit Lions
One of the best ways to maximize the floor-to-ceiling ratio is to find players who get a lot of carries around the goal line. That is exactly the case with Mongtomery, who saw 50 of his 219 carries inside the red zone.
Montgomery specialized close to the goal line, taking 31 carries inside the 10-yard line and scoring on 11 of them. Inside the 5-yard line, Montgomery scored nine touchdowns on 17 attempts in 2023.
Those numbers are incredibly impressive and ensure that Montgomery should have that floor and ceiling that we are looking for. He should be in line for somewhere in the region of 200 touches and could see close to a quarter of them near the goal line.
Sure, Jahmyr Gibbs is a threat for touches, but the young RB is already dealing with a hamstring injury in the preseason. Montgomery may not have the top-five RB upside that Gibbs has, and his ceiling appears capped from a PPR perspective in this offense, but he is very good at what he does.
Combine all of that with a relatively low price in the sixth round, and you have a potential league-winner falling into your lap.
Brian Robinson Jr, RB, Washington Commanders
We saw a very impressive season from Brian Robinson Jr. last year, as he scored 198.1 fantasy points, despite playing just 50.3% of the offensive snaps. He outperformed expectations with a fantasy output 15% above expectation, averaging 13.21 fantasy points per game.
There is naturally concern over the change in the offense and the arrival of Austin Ekeler. The Kliff Kingsbury offense will likely suit Ekeler’s style more, but Robinson has proven he can be effective on limited touches. He also proved his pass-catching chops with 36 receptions for 368 yards and four touchdowns. That should serve him well again this year.
Robinson is currently being drafted as the 33rd RB off the board but finished inside the top 25 in both total fantasy points and fantasy points per game.
There is a case to be made that last year was just a median level for Robinson and that this year could be even better, especially now the Commanders have traded away their WR2, limiting their pass-catching options at wide receiver.
Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins
We have not seen much of Jaylen Waddle in this preseason due to an injury, but there does not seem much concern that will carry over into the season. Assuming that is the case, Waddle’s upside this season could outstrip his WR21 ADP.
Injuries are the concern with Waddle, but when he is on the field, his numbers are impressive.
Waddle’s ADP in 2024 basically reflects his finish from last season, when he was WR22 on a per-game basis, averaging 14.2 points per game in PPR. Part of the issue for Waddle was a career-low in touchdowns, with just four. He really struggled to find the end zone last year, partly because of a really poor return in the red zone, where he averaged just 1.21 PPR fantasy points per game there.
Those red zone numbers are in stark contrast to the rest of his career, where Waddle has averaged 2.75 PPR points per game inside the red zone.
There is likely to be some progression to the mean in those numbers, which will considerably increase Waddle’s output this year. He has a realistic opportunity to be in the WR1 conversation this year, and you can get him outside the top 20 at the position.
Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Commanders
I was already a fan of Terry McLaurin now that he has Jayden Daniels throwing him the ball. But when the team traded away his only rival for targets ahead of the season, McLaurin went even higher in my rankings. Now, we are looking at a talented receiver who has a legitimate path to 150 targets.
McLaurin has never finished above WR14 but has never finished below WR30. His current ADP is WR33, so even if he just does the bare minimum of what he has done historically, he will outperform that draft value.
That leaves a lot of potential ceiling for him to grow into and be a potential league-winner for you.
The ceiling for McLaurin at the position is inside the top 15, and right now, you can get him outside the top 30. That value has me incredibly confused.
Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens
Generally, the tight end position is overvalued, but Mark Andrews is undervalued for some inexplicable reason.
Last year was a tough season for the Baltimore Ravens tight end, as he missed seven games, meaning he fell outside of the top 10 at the position for the first time since his rookie season.
However, when Andrews was on the field, he was still his usual productive self.
Last year, Andrews finished fifth in points per game, which is notable due to the fact that he missed time during some of those games with his injury. His target share fell a little on a per-game basis from the last two years, but that number is impacted by that time missed in games.
Going off the board as the TE3 may not feel like incredible value, but compared to the rest of the position, Andrews is the only one of the top 10 being undervalued.
It is not a huge value, but if you are looking to maximize value at EVERY position, then Andrews is the one to target at tight end.
Kirk Cousins, QB, Atlanta Falcons
Much like the tight end position, finding value at the quarterback position is tough to do in fantasy drafts.
Generally, the position is being over-drafted, and you have to go right down to Kirk Cousins to find that value. His current ADP is QB19 as the 141st player off the board, but he sits considerably higher than that in our rankings.
Naturally, there is concern about Cousins in 2024. He is coming off a devastating Achilles injury and is changing teams.
When he was on the field last year, Cousins was his usually excellent self. He averaged 18.7 fantasy points per game, finishing as the QB7 in that metric.
While there is concern over the move to the Falcons, there is plenty to be optimistic about.
Firstly, he will play 12 games indoors, similar to when he was with the Vikings. However, his road games now avoid the potentially frozen and blustery conditions of Green Bay and Chicago. Instead, he gets outdoor road games in Carolina and Tampa Bay.
Secondly, he goes from strength to strength in terms of pass catchers. Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Bijan Robinson may not be Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson, and Jordan Addison, but it is pretty close.
Finally, the change in teams will have a limited impact, given he is going to a Zac Robinson system, who, like Kevin O’Connell, cut his teeth as a coach in a Sean McVay system.
Cousins is a borderline top-12 QB who you can get for a QB19 price. That value allows you to load up on other positions and still get a potential every-week starting QB for a pick after the 10th round.
