My New York Giants vs. Minnesota Vikings prediction forecasts a potential upset in the land of a thousand lakes. The home team has escaped unscathed from some dicey situations this season, setting a record for wins in one-score games. It appears their luck runs out in the opening round of the playoffs.
The Behavior Bets sports betting model has identified some value in these Giants vs. Vikings odds. An upset means positive value on the moneyline and against the spread. Bettors may find some cash-positive opportunities ahead.
Giants vs. Vikings Odds | Wild Card Weekend
- Spread
Giants +3 - Moneyline
Giants +140 - Over/Under
Under 48
*Odds provided by and my personal bets placed at Caesars Sportsbook
Giants vs. Vikings Prediction
The Behavior Bets sports betting model went 20-12 in Week 18, going up 10.7u and sporting a +15.23% ROI. For the season, the model is 157-80-6* on bets against the spread, on the moneyline, and in player props. Let’s see if we can keep it going starting with this New York vs. Minnesota prediction. Make sure you also check out my full NFL Playoff Bracket Prediction.
*Stats on the Behavior Bets model can be tracked at Pikkit, the best bet-tracking app on the market.
The Giants head into Minnesota led by a coach of the year candidate in Brian Daboll. He has seemingly aided in the development of Daniel Jones, gotten a nearly full season from Saquon Barkley, and taken the Giants to heights previously unexpected.
After helping mold Josh Allen into the all-star quarterback we know him to be, Daboll has engineered a steady and reliable Giants offense. While they aren’t necessarily explosive or league leaders, they have found an identity and formula that has allowed them to be consistent.
They have never achieved a scoring behavior rate this season above one point per minute of possession time, the only playoff offense to not do so. They do, however, sport one of the top offenses with the highest percentage of games played above .7 points per minute of possession time, at 76%.
They have maintained a steady pace that saw 5% growth week over week this season. They also have the lowest bounce rate of any postseason offense, meaning they have been the most consistent behaviorally, regardless of the environment. It may not be flashy, but it works.
They’ll be taking on the second-worst remaining defense in the playoffs. The Vikings give up .722 points per minute of opponent time of possession. That mark is ahead of only the Kansas City Chiefs in score prevention behavior rate among playoff teams. Minnesota has struggled against the run as of late.
In their last three games, the Vikings have given up the most rushing yards per game of any playoff team not named the Los Angeles Chargers. The Giants are the second-best playoff team this season in rushing yards per game.
Ball control and pounding the rock help the Giants score 24 points this week in this Giants vs. Vikings prediction.
Kirk Cousins Doesn’t Like That
The key phrase above is ball control. The Vikings, at times, have had one of the more explosive offenses remaining in the postseason. To limit that explosion, the Giants are well suited in this environment against a weak Vikes’ defense to keep the ball out of Cousins’ hands.
But even when Minnesota gets the ball, it’s not always clear what will happen. Of all the playoff teams Minnesota, by far, has the most inconsistent offense, sporting a bounce rate of x3.6. That unreliability has hurt them all season. They have nine games with a scoring behavior rate above .9 points per minute of possession time. They also have games below .2 points per minute of possession time.
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They face a Giants defense that has been very consistent but can give up points as well. It all comes back to opportunities. Will the Vikings get too few of them? The model projects that the Vikings will score when they have their chances, but that they’ll likely not have many.
The Giants, on average, allow opponents to have the ball on the road for less than half of the available game time. At home, Minnesota averages less than half a game’s worth of possession time. Famous for asking, “You like that?!” after big wins, I don’t think Cousins will like the outcome in this one.
In this Giants vs. Vikings prediction, the road dog Giants come out on top.
Giants vs. Vikings Prediction
Giants 24, Vikings 23