This Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills prediction accounts for the visiting Dolphins being without a marquee player. Inside my sports betting model, that moved the game from a projected two-point differential to an eight-point one. Either way, there won’t be a Miami Miracle.
The Behavior Bets sports betting model has identified some value in these Dolphins vs. Bills odds. The Dolphins are big underdogs. Is there an opportunity for them to cover?
Dolphins vs. Bills Odds | Wild Card Weekend
- Spread
Dolphins +13.5 - Moneyline
Bills -800 - Over/Under
Over 43
*Odds provided by and my personal bets placed at Caesars Sportsbook.
Dolphins vs. Bills Prediction
The Behavior Bets sports betting model went 20-12 in Week 18, going up 10.7u and sporting a +15.23% ROI. For the season, the model is 157-80-6* on bets against the spread, on the moneyline, and in player props. Let’s see if we can keep it going starting with this Miami vs. Buffalo prediction. Make sure you also check out my full NFL Playoff Bracket Prediction.
*Stats on the Behavior Bets model can be tracked at Pikkit, the best bet-tracking app on the market.
The Dolphins are going to be without Tua Tagovailoa. He has been ruled out for Wild Card Weekend. With him, the Dolphins had an uphill battle to complete an unlikely upset on the road in front of the Bills Mafia. Without him, it’s infinitely harder.
Rookie Skylar Thompson gets the start. He takes over an offense that, since Tua’s return from his first absence due to concussions, was firing on all cylinders. Tua came back, and the offense improved by 41% in scoring behavior rate in those four games before their bye week.
After the bye week, that dropped by 18% but was still well above league average and good for third-best in the NFL. Then the Green Bay Packers game happened. Tua was a different quarterback in the second half of that game and then missed the following two. Their scoring behavior rate dropped an additional 45% over those two games.
That culminated in last week’s game, started by this week’s starter in Thompson. The Dolphins put up 11 points against a stout New York Jets defense. Thompson will be facing the postseason’s top defense on Saturday. The Bills lead all playoff teams in score prevention behavior Rate. Their issue is they have been trending in the wrong direction, giving up more points per minute of possession time at a 23% rate week over week.
That said, Thompson should help stunt that trend for a week’s time. The Bills hold the Dolphins to 20 points in this Dolphins vs. Bills prediction.
Josh Allen Dominates
Josh Allen is leading a Bills offense that will always give his team a chance to win, no matter who the opponent is. The Bills field just under .9 points per minute of possession time in scoring behavior rate. That’s second-best in the entire postseason for teams who have had their starting quarterback for a full season.
They’ll be facing a Dolphins defense that is entirely different on the road than it is at home. For the season, the Miami defense gives up an average score prevention behavior rate of .701 points per minute of possession time.
MORE: NFL Wild Card Round Previews
But on the road? That number is a whopping .93 points per minute of opponent possession time away from home. When in Buffalo four weeks ago, they surrendered 1.1 points per minute of opponent possession time. Add the emotional lift of Damar Hamlin’s return in front of Bills Mafia, and I don’t see a pathway to victory for Miami in this Dolphins vs. Bills prediction.
I fully anticipate Josh Allen taking the game over, and, as Bill Belichick is famous for saying, moving on to Cincinnati.
Dolphins vs. Bills Prediction
Dolphins 20, Bills 28